Big 10 contenders

LudicrousSpeedGO!

Well-known member
So I wanted to have a little more in-depth discussion of not only how many each potential contender returns but also what was lost by position group and by draft position.

Sources: https://www.cbssports.com/college-f...arters-coming-back-for-every-power-four-team/


Below is each potential contender for the Big this year IMO including some dark horses:

Penn State Returning Starters

[9] Drew Allar (QB), Nicholas Singleton (RB), Liam Clifford (WR), Khalil Dinkins (TE), Drew Shelton (LT), Olaivavega Ioane (LG), Nick Dawkins (C), Anthony Donkoh (RT), Nolan Rucci (RT)[5] Zane Durant (DL), Dani Dennis-Sutton (DE), Tony Rojas (LB), A.J. Harris (CB), Zakee Wheatley (S)

Now PSU returning starters include Clifford at WR who will likely not start this year. It omits our leading rusher from last year, Kayton Allen. It lists Dinkins who started probably a few games in the 2 TE set but he was clearly not our #1 TE. It lists both Donkoh and Rucci even though only one is likely starting this year. On defense, somehow cbs sports missed Deluca as a starter.

As far as what we lost,

Penn State Nittany Lions – 5​

  • Abdul Carter, EDGE – 1.3, New York Giants
  • Tyler Warren, TE – 1.14, Indianapolis Colts
  • Kevin Winston Jr., S – 3.83, Tennessee Titans
  • Jaylen Reed, S – 6.187, Houston Texans
  • Kobe King, LB – 6.201, Minnesota Vikings
In addition, we lost Wallace and Evans (our #2 and #3 in receiving) and Fleming who was the #6 in receiving. That and Warren was far and away the #1 WR and selected in the first round. We added 3 WR transfers that we think can outproduce the 3 WRs that depart. In addition to losing Warren in the draft, we lost Sal Wormley at RG (although many are high on Cousins taking that job). We also lost our #2 QB Pribula to transfer leaving that position inexperienced behind Allar. All in all, the offense simply did a complete change out at WR which may improve that position. QB depth took a hit, but that position may overall improve. TE will not have a Warren but Dinkins, Reynolds, et al will probably soften that loss a bit. RB returns and is possibly the best in the nation. OL returns all but Wormley including 2 RTs with starting experience and Cousins seems to be a future star filling in for Wormley. The OL could contend for best in the nation. The question at WR remains with a number of potential answers.

Defensively, you don't replace Carter. Dennis-Sutton could take another step to dominant and that would help and PSU staff seems to think Fisher will surprise some folks. Depth at DE could be an issue, at least proven depth where Vanover and Vilbert depart. But they are high on some of the young DEs. The question is if they are ready to be solid 2 deep contributors. DT returns potential AA Durant but loses J-Thomas and Izzard. So depth or proven depth is a potential issue. Getting Ford back and healthy is key but also developing that depth behind the starters is just as important. LB returns all but King who went in the 6th round and depth piece Robinson. But we add a top UNC starter in Campbell. Rojas playing healthy could make a big jump. LB seems to be in good hands. Safety loses draft picks Winston and Reed (but half of that was lost last season anyway) and returns Wheatley. Can Lane, Mack and Toure pick up the losses? Very possibly they can. At Corner, Harris is a potential AA and the staff has to replace Kimber and Miller but loves Washington, Collins, and Tracy. There may be no drop off at all or even improvement at corner.

Overall, compared to other contenders, PSU will be one of the most seasoned teams in the country. In addition, we seem to have answers for nearly all of the losses in spite of not being able to replace a Warren or a Carter and having a complete change of guard at WR (this is the wildcard). Otherwise, we bring back a lot of talented starters.
 
Now Ohio St who is still our top competition for the Big 10 title.

Returning Starters
[6] Jeremiah Smith (WR), Carnell Tate (WR), Will Kacmarek (TE), Austin Siereveld (LG), Carson Hinzman (C), Tegra Tshabola (RG)[3] Sonny Styles (LB), Davison Igbinosun (CB), Caleb Downs (S)

Draft Picks lost

Ohio State Buckeyes – 14​

  • Emeka Egbuka, WR – 1.19, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Donovan Jackson, OG – 1.24, Minnesota Vikings
  • Tyleik Williams, DT – 1.28, Detroit Lions
  • Josh Simmons, OT – 1.32, Kansas City Chiefs
  • Quinshon Judkins, RB – 2.36, Cleveland Browns
  • TreVeyon Henderson, RB – 2.38, New England Patriots
  • J.T. Tuimoloau, EDGE – 2.45, Indianapolis Colts
  • Cody Simon, LB – 4.115, Arizona Cardinals
  • Lathan Ransom, S – 4.122, Carolina Panthers
  • Jack Sawyer, EDGE – 4.123, Pittsburgh Steelers
  • Ty Hamilton, DT – 5.148, Los Angeles Rams
  • Jordan Hancock, CB – 5.170, Buffalo Bills
  • Denzel Burke, CB – 5.174, Arizona Cardinals
  • Will Howard, QB – 6.185, Pittsburgh Steelers
My outsider's assessment:

Offensively they have lost their QB and top 2 RBs. This is what will hurt the most if they don't have someone ready to step up. I am guessing that they will but not as strong or experienced. They lose a 1st rd WR but won't lose a step there with what returns and what was waiting in the wings. They lose two 1st rd OL but return 3 starters. I'm guessing that this unit takes a small step back. Overall, the offense will still be explosive but probably not as dominant as last year.

Defensively they lose a lot. They return the best safety in the nation, a starting corner and LB. Otherwise, their entire DL from a year ago is in the NFL now. 2 DTs and 2 DEs drafted. I have to expect a significant step back there. They'll no doubt have talented youngsters but that starting DL is a wholesale change. They also lose a starting LB, 2 corners, and a safety to the NFL. That back end of the defense could be pretty inexperienced. Without a consistently dominant DL wreaking havoc, the back end could get exposed. And they could be susceptible to a power run game with an entirely new DL.

However, this is still Ohio St. They still have more 5 stars than the rest of the conference combined. They will be much less experienced on D but still right there. But this is the year to get them IMO if you have the horses.
 
Now Oregon, last year's champion.

Oregon returns
[2] Evan Stewart (WR), Iapani Laloulu (C)[3] Teitum Tuioti (OLB), Matayo Uiagalelei (OLB), Bryce Boettcher (ILB)

Oh, and Evan Stewart is likely out for the year with injury. So they return one starter on offense and 3 on D (all LBs).
This is much more of a wholesale changeout than Ohio St.

Oregon losses in the draft

Oregon Ducks – 10​

  • Derrick Harmon, DT – 1.21, Pittsburgh Steelers
  • Josh Conerly Jr., OT – 1.29, Washington Commanders
  • Terrance Ferguson, TE – 2.46, Los Angeles Rams
  • Jordan Burch, EDGE – 3.78, Arizona Cardinals
  • Jamaree Caldwell, DT – 3.86, Los Angeles Chargers
  • Dillon Gabriel, QB – 3.94, Cleveland Browns
  • Jordan James, RB – 5.147, San Francisco 49ers
  • Jeffrey Bassa, LB – 5.156, Kansas City Chiefs
  • Ajani Cornelius, OT – 6.204, Dallas Cowboys
  • Tez Johnson, WR – 7.235, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I don't know what to write about Oregon other than they lost a ton of experience and talent at every position group except LB. They could be looking at a significant step back IMO.
 
Now Illinois, this year's Indiana?

Illinois finished #16 in the nation and returns more than all but ASU.
[9] Luke Altmyer (QB), Aidan Laughery (RB), Collin Dixon (WR), Tanner Arkin (TE), J.C. Davis (LT), Josh Gesky (LG), Josh Kreutz (C), Brandon Henderson (RG), Melvin Priestly (RT)[7] Gabe Jacas (OLB), Dylan Rosiek (LB), Torrie Cox Jr. (CB), Kaleb Patterson (CB), Xavier Scott (CB), Matthew Bailey (S), Miles Scott (S)

They lost 1 player in the NFL draft.

Illinois Fighting Illini – 1​

  • Pat Bryant, WR – 3.74, Denver Broncos
This team is going to be the most experienced in the conference. They are last year's #16 team but a year more experienced. They could be playoff bound.
 
Now Illinois, this year's Indiana?

Illinois finished #16 in the nation and returns more than all but ASU.

[9] Luke Altmyer (QB), Aidan Laughery (RB), Collin Dixon (WR), Tanner Arkin (TE), J.C. Davis (LT), Josh Gesky (LG), Josh Kreutz (C), Brandon Henderson (RG), Melvin Priestly (RT)[7] Gabe Jacas (OLB), Dylan Rosiek (LB), Torrie Cox Jr. (CB), Kaleb Patterson (CB), Xavier Scott (CB), Matthew Bailey (S), Miles Scott (S)

They lost 1 player in the NFL draft.

Illinois Fighting Illini – 1​

  • Pat Bryant, WR – 3.74, Denver Broncos
This team is going to be the most experienced in the conference. They are last year's #16 team but a year more experienced. They could be playoff bound.
They also have a relatively easy schedule. They miss PSU, Michigan, & Oregon. They do play OSU but their next most difficult game is USC who they play at home. They could be this year's Indiana.
 
Maybe Michigan surprises returning 13 starters? They lost 7 in the draft including two 1st round DTs and a DE. They could have more off the field issues if the NCAA ever gets around to accountability. Who knows? I don't list them as a contender for the Big 10 title but that could be a mistake.

Indiana returns 4 starters on offense and 4 on defense. You would have to think they take a step back from their fairy tale year.

Iowa has 10 starters returning and I think they may be in contention for probably 5th in the big 10? Maybe they can do a little more bringing in an decent QB? They will be tough at home against us and we will need to be ready.

I don't have USC who returns 8 starters as a contender but they could surprise here and there.
I don't have Nebraska who returns 9 starters as a contender but they could also knock off a team or two near the top.
 
Great info - appreciated.

The telling story to me is the number of draft picks and players lost (PSU 5 compared to Oregon 10 and O$U an incredible 14). They just reload with 5 stars. The X factor for me is what Sayin does at Qb for OSU. That’s such an unpredictable position. Also OSUs d-line. And Oregon should be interesting with all the new players. I’m very interested to see what Cignetti does with Indiana this year and if they did as well in the portal as they did last year.
 
Great analysis. Thank you.

Couple of points:
  • While tOSU and Oregon lost more talent to the NFL draft, they had more to lose and have better kids coming in off last year's bench. To wear out a saying, they reload.
In the Oregon write-up, they go through the impact of Warren on the team and the amount of production he had. We don't know if that is because he was that good, He became Allar's binky, or if the WR's were that bad. Or how much of an improvement, if any, the 2025 WRs will be. I'd add that I think the TEs, especially Dinkins, will be quite good and we won't lose as much as many think in terms of yardage production out of the TE position. If we can minimize the TE loss of production, increase the WR production and leverage improvements at the OL and running back, we'll have a great offense.

I've read Indiana had a great portal season and is as good or better than last year. Many think their QB play will improve from the kid they took from Ohio University to the next year's kid that they took from Cal. But I feel like they snuck up on people and had an incredibly easy schedule until tOSU. And I think Illinois is very physical and well coached. ILL plays Duke in their second game and then plays Indiana in their B1G opener. The winner of that game will probably be the dark horse B1G team. Indiana plays ILL, Oregon, Iowa, and PSU this year. Michigan may be either hurt or helped by the controversies. I would expect that they will be sanctioned before the season starts but who knows?
 
Last edited:
Great analysis. Thank you.

Couple of points:
  • While tOSU and Oregon lost more talent to the NFL draft, they had more to lose and have better kids coming in off last year's bench. To wear out a saying, they reload.
In the Oregon write-up, they go through the impact of Warren on the team and the amount of production he had. We don't know if that is because he was that good. He became Allar's binky. The WR's were that bad. Or how much of an improvement, if any, the 2025 WRs will be. I'd add that I think the TEs, especially Dinkins, will be quite good and we won't lose as much as many think in terms of yardage production out of the TE position. If we can minimize the TE loss of production, increase the WR production and leverage improvements at the OL and running back, we'll have a great offense.

I've read Indiana had a great portal season and is as good or better than last year. Many think their QB play will improve from the kid they took from Ohio University to the next year's kid that they took from Cal. But I feel like they snuck up on people and had an incredibly easy schedule until tOSU. And I think Illinois is very physical and well coached. ILL plays Duke in their second game and then plays Indiana in their B1G opener. The winner of that game will probably be the dark horse B1G team. Indiana plays ILL, Oregon, Iowa, and PSU this year. Michigan may be either hurt or helped by the controversies. I would expect that they will be sanctioned before the season starts but who knows?
Valid point. I didn't include much of the transfer info on other teams because I simply haven't looked deep into that.

Here's a look at 247s transfer portal rankings. Looks like Oregon bought several top players this cycle. Ohio St spent some money as well.

 
So I wanted to have a little more in-depth discussion of not only how many each potential contender returns but also what was lost by position group and by draft position.

Sources: https://www.cbssports.com/college-f...arters-coming-back-for-every-power-four-team/


Below is each potential contender for the Big this year IMO including some dark horses:

Penn State Returning Starters

[9] Drew Allar (QB), Nicholas Singleton (RB), Liam Clifford (WR), Khalil Dinkins (TE), Drew Shelton (LT), Olaivavega Ioane (LG), Nick Dawkins (C), Anthony Donkoh (RT), Nolan Rucci (RT)[5] Zane Durant (DL), Dani Dennis-Sutton (DE), Tony Rojas (LB), A.J. Harris (CB), Zakee Wheatley (S)

Now PSU returning starters include Clifford at WR who will likely not start this year. It omits our leading rusher from last year, Kayton Allen. It lists Dinkins who started probably a few games in the 2 TE set but he was clearly not our #1 TE. It lists both Donkoh and Rucci even though only one is likely starting this year. On defense, somehow cbs sports missed Deluca as a starter.

As far as what we lost,

Penn State Nittany Lions – 5​

  • Abdul Carter, EDGE – 1.3, New York Giants
  • Tyler Warren, TE – 1.14, Indianapolis Colts
  • Kevin Winston Jr., S – 3.83, Tennessee Titans
  • Jaylen Reed, S – 6.187, Houston Texans
  • Kobe King, LB – 6.201, Minnesota Vikings
In addition, we lost Wallace and Evans (our #2 and #3 in receiving) and Fleming who was the #6 in receiving. That and Warren was far and away the #1 WR and selected in the first round. We added 3 WR transfers that we think can outproduce the 3 WRs that depart. In addition to losing Warren in the draft, we lost Sal Wormley at RG (although many are high on Cousins taking that job). We also lost our #2 QB Pribula to transfer leaving that position inexperienced behind Allar. All in all, the offense simply did a complete change out at WR which may improve that position. QB depth took a hit, but that position may overall improve. TE will not have a Warren but Dinkins, Reynolds, et al will probably soften that loss a bit. RB returns and is possibly the best in the nation. OL returns all but Wormley including 2 RTs with starting experience and Cousins seems to be a future star filling in for Wormley. The OL could contend for best in the nation. The question at WR remains with a number of potential answers.

Defensively, you don't replace Carter. Dennis-Sutton could take another step to dominant and that would help and PSU staff seems to think Fisher will surprise some folks. Depth at DE could be an issue, at least proven depth where Vanover and Vilbert depart. But they are high on some of the young DEs. The question is if they are ready to be solid 2 deep contributors. DT returns potential AA Durant but loses J-Thomas and Izzard. So depth or proven depth is a potential issue. Getting Ford back and healthy is key but also developing that depth behind the starters is just as important. LB returns all but King who went in the 6th round and depth piece Robinson. But we add a top UNC starter in Campbell. Rojas playing healthy could make a big jump. LB seems to be in good hands. Safety loses draft picks Winston and Reed (but half of that was lost last season anyway) and returns Wheatley. Can Lane, Mack and Toure pick up the losses? Very possibly they can. At Corner, Harris is a potential AA and the staff has to replace Kimber and Miller but loves Washington, Collins, and Tracy. There may be no drop off at all or even improvement at corner.

Overall, compared to other contenders, PSU will be one of the most seasoned teams in the country. In addition, we seem to have answers for nearly all of the losses in spite of not being able to replace a Warren or a Carter and having a complete change of guard at WR (this is the wildcard). Otherwise, we bring back a lot of talented starters.
Drew Shelton is the returning starter @ LT.
 
I don't think you can say Illinois is quite this years Indiana. IU went from losing record to playoff. NOBODY predicted that.

Illinois was a top 20 team. They are expected to be on the cusp of the playoff already. That's just a good team returning a bunch. Nothing dark horse about it.

Say what you will about Oregon, but they don't have the same OSU history of reloading even though they have the Phil Knight recruiting bump. Lanning could have them right back at top 5/10 or this could be a 3/4 loss rebuilding year.

I think it speaks a lot about our roster that we were voted ahead of OSU to win the conference (even if by 1 vote), but it's still a monkey on our back until we slam it off.

We should be able to move the ball on them better this year, but it's likely to be a potential shootout a la '22 if Sayin is legit. I have zero faith in Kleinholz (I believe he's being strung along and paid just enough not to leave in the previous portal window a la Devin Brown). If Sayin for some reason is just average, they will struggle more than usual.

My biggest question is, do we finally break down and double team Smith?
 
No sir. You overlooked that Dew Shelton is the returning starter @ LT. I now Donkoh & Rucci split starts @ RT after Dokoh's injury.
I'm not sure where you are reading that I overlooked Shelton as a returning starter at LT. I wrote "OL returns all but Wormley including 2 RTs with starting experience and Cousins seems to be a future star filling in for Wormley." I didn't name Shelton in the write up so maybe that is where you think I was overlooking him. Either way, not a point to argue over. We both clearly know that Shelton is returning at LT.
 
I don't think you can say Illinois is quite this years Indiana. IU went from losing record to playoff. NOBODY predicted that.

Illinois was a top 20 team. They are expected to be on the cusp of the playoff already. That's just a good team returning a bunch. Nothing dark horse about it.

Say what you will about Oregon, but they don't have the same OSU history of reloading even though they have the Phil Knight recruiting bump. Lanning could have them right back at top 5/10 or this could be a 3/4 loss rebuilding year.

I think it speaks a lot about our roster that we were voted ahead of OSU to win the conference (even if by 1 vote), but it's still a monkey on our back until we slam it off.

We should be able to move the ball on them better this year, but it's likely to be a potential shootout a la '22 if Sayin is legit. I have zero faith in Kleinholz (I believe he's being strung along and paid just enough not to leave in the previous portal window a la Devin Brown). If Sayin for some reason is just average, they will struggle more than usual.

My biggest question is, do we finally break down and double team Smith?
I see your point on Illinois. Perhaps I should have worded it as Illinois taking Indiana's spot in the Big 10 pecking order.

Agreed on Oregon. They have young talent and landed several top transfers. But they are likely to take a step back (to 3rd to 5th place in the Big 10 would be my guess).

Ohio St will be a dogfight in Columbus. We have the horses to pull it out, but will we? Your guess is as good as mine. I hear what you're saying on Sayin, pun intended. He will likely be the lynchpin that determines if they are merely good or great. Their D will take a step back. I think that was a big consideration enabling us to steal their DC. He knew their D was taking a step back.
 
I don't think you can say Illinois is quite this years Indiana. IU went from losing record to playoff. NOBODY predicted that.

Illinois was a top 20 team. They are expected to be on the cusp of the playoff already. That's just a good team returning a bunch. Nothing dark horse about it.

Say what you will about Oregon, but they don't have the same OSU history of reloading even though they have the Phil Knight recruiting bump. Lanning could have them right back at top 5/10 or this could be a 3/4 loss rebuilding year.

I think it speaks a lot about our roster that we were voted ahead of OSU to win the conference (even if by 1 vote), but it's still a monkey on our back until we slam it off.

We should be able to move the ball on them better this year, but it's likely to be a potential shootout a la '22 if Sayin is legit. I have zero faith in Kleinholz (I believe he's being strung along and paid just enough not to leave in the previous portal window a la Devin Brown). If Sayin for some reason is just average, they will struggle more than usual.

My biggest question is, do we finally break down and double team Smith?
I agree totally on IU and Illinois.

Regarding Oregon, they are not the same team they were 10 years ago regarding coaching, support and recruiting results, so looking at their history I believe is misleading. Their support now is top 5 and their recruiting shows it. Particularly what they were able to do in the transfer portal. Take a look at what they brought in from both high school (the #1 overall WR in the class to replace their record setter) and the transfer portal which includes some of the very best experienced linemen on both sides of the ball. Redshirt Junior and Senior. Also help in the secondary. Oregon coaches will be showing their defense every run of PSU's 297 yard performance last season over and over to get them ready to do a better job against PSU running game. I'm glad PSU playes Oregon early as hopefully their new starting QB won't be 100% on the same page with their WR's early in the season. And hopefully the White Out atmosphere plays a role in the game outcome. Take a look at what Oregon got from the portal.


Regarding Ohio St I believe any coach in the country would take their roster over PSU's right now unless it was just for one year and even then it's a toss up. The OSU roster is loaded with 5 star and high 4 star players at most positions, not just WR. PSU was voted barely ahead of OSU due to PSU's returning talent and the experience of that talent, particularly PSU having an experienced and talented QB. OSU has lots of starting spots to fill and their history under the Day's coaching staff is that they do that pretty seamlessly.

Franklin hasn't shown the will to load up to stop the opponents top player as I've seen it, and about any decent college QB will be able to get him the ball. We'll need to get to their QB early and shake him up. I'd rather PSU play them in early October than in early November as their young talent will likely be starting to jell by then.

I'll be happy if PSU can put up a win vs either Oregon or Ohio State. Winning them both would likely make Allar a legend!!!
 
I'm not sure where you are reading that I overlooked Shelton as a returning starter at LT. I wrote "OL returns all but Wormley including 2 RTs with starting experience and Cousins seems to be a future star filling in for Wormley." I didn't name Shelton in the write up so maybe that is where you think I was overlooking him. Either way, not a point to argue over. We both clearly know that Shelton is returning at LT.
I was looking at the list provided in your post of PSU returning starters. It made no mention of Shelton as a returning starter. I should have been more specific of the oversight I was referencing.
 
Last edited:
Take a look at what Oregon got from the portal.

I like the Tulane RB and the Purdue S, but the rest are kind "would you be better off playing the HS kids you recruited?"

I know we wanted Bear, but everybody wants DT depth and he's been more star rating than production.

I'll give them credit. They did fill roster holes.

Franklin hasn't shown the will to load up to stop the opponents top player as I've seen it,

I really wish he would adapt this in some instances. We had JPJ on the defense and let MHJ go anywhere on the field and not shadow him nor give safety help.
 
I was looking at the list provided in your post of PSU returning starters. It made no mention of Shelton as a returning starter. I should have been more specific of the oversight I was referencing.
Thanks, but you must have just missed it. It's not my list, it's cbs sports' list but they did list him.


[9] Drew Allar (QB), Nicholas Singleton (RB), Liam Clifford (WR), Khalil Dinkins (TE), Drew Shelton (LT), Olaivavega Ioane (LG), Nick Dawkins (C), Anthony Donkoh (RT), Nolan Rucci (RT)[5] Zane Durant (DL), Dani Dennis-Sutton (DE), Tony Rojas (LB), A.J. Harris (CB), Zakee Wheatley (S)
 
Back
Top