Penn State and Playoffs in '26

[ryoder1]

We all know we have an easy schedule. 9-3 should be a layup but we want 10-2 so we have a good shot at the playoffs. Right?

Well I am not so sure 10-2 gets us in. Indiana's emergence has put another power team at the top along with OSU, Oregon, Michigan, USC and throw us and Washington in there.

In the current 12 team format where ND has a good chance to get in and the dumb rule of guaranteeing a Group of 5 team then that leaves 10 spots or more precisely 6 at large spots from the Power 4. I don't think 5 B10 teams get in.

Let's take a look.

-OSU is in like they always are. Looking at their schedule their toughest tests are @Texas, @ USC, @ Indiana and home vs Oregon. I think they go 11-1 and undefeated in B10 play losing just to Texas early

- Oregon: Predict they win at USC but lose at OSU. 11-1

Michigan: 9-3 losing at Oregon and at OSU and home to Indiana

USC: 8-4 losing at PSU and at Indiana and home to Oregon and OSU

PSU: 10-2 Lose at Michigan and Washington

Washington: 9-3 Lose at USC, at Oregon and home to Indiana

-Indiana: 11-1 losing to OSU

If this plays out like this then we make it but if a few games don't go this way we could easily be on the outside. Michigan and Washington are the key teams that will impact our fate since I predict we lose to both. The other team is Indiana. I think they need three losses otherwise they will get in ahead of us.

Michigan beats Indiana at home and that means both teams are 10-2. Michigan in over us due to head to head. I think Indiana is in ahead of us as well due to beating Washington on the road (something we couldn't do).

Another scenario is Washington beats Indiana and finishes 10-2 but Indiana does beat Michigan so still 10-2 with wins over Michigan and USC. Washington would go, Indiana would go over us.

We could come up with scenarios until the cows come home but because of our weak schedule 10-2 foes not make us a lock.

 

[LudicrousSpeedGO!]

We all know we have an easy schedule. 9-3 should be a layup but we want 10-2 so we have a good shot at the playoffs. Right?

Well I am not so sure 10-2 gets us in. Indiana's emergence has put another power team at the top along with OSU, Oregon, Michigan, USC and throw us and Washington in there.

In the current 12 team format where ND has a good chance to get in and the dumb rule of guaranteeing a Group of 5 team then that leaves 10 spots or more precisely 6 at large spots from the Power 4. I don't think 5 B10 teams get in.

Let's take a look.

-OSU is in like they always are. Looking at their schedule their toughest tests are @Texas, @ USC, @ Indiana and home vs Oregon. I think they go 11-1 and undefeated in B10 play losing just to Texas early

- Oregon: Predict they win at USC but lose at OSU. 11-1

Michigan: 9-3 losing at Oregon and at OSU and home to Indiana

USC: 8-4 losing at PSU and at Indiana and home to Oregon and OSU

PSU: 10-2 Lose at Michigan and Washington

Washington: 9-3 Lose at USC, at Oregon and home to Indiana

-Indiana: 11-1 losing to OSU

If this plays out like this then we make it but if a few games don't go this way we could easily be on the outside. Michigan and Washington are the key teams that will impact our fate since I predict we lose to both. The other team is Indiana. I think they need three losses otherwise they will get in ahead of us.

Michigan beats Indiana at home and that means both teams are 10-2. Michigan in over us due to head to head. I think Indiana is in ahead of us as well due to beating Washington on the road (something we couldn't do).

Another scenario is Washington beats Indiana and finishes 10-2 but Indiana does beat Michigan so still 10-2 with wins over Michigan and USC. Washington would go, Indiana would go over us.

We could come up with scenarios until the cows come home but because of our weak schedule 10-2 foes not make us a lock.

Didn't the SEC just get 5 teams in and that conference was absolutely horrible in the post-season? There is SEC bias in the polls, but I assume with the Big 10 absolutely dominating them for the last 3 years and the SEC having the worst win % in the bowls against other conferences (4-9 overall but 2-7 against other conferences), the Big 10 was 8-3 verses other conferences for reference (9-4 overall). This is pretty strong evidence that the SEC was way over-rated and the Big 10 was under-rated.

 

[bdroc]

We all know we have an easy schedule. 9-3 should be a layup but we want 10-2 so we have a good shot at the playoffs. Right?

Well I am not so sure 10-2 gets us in. Indiana's emergence has put another power team at the top along with OSU, Oregon, Michigan, USC and throw us and Washington in there.

In the current 12 team format where ND has a good chance to get in and the dumb rule of guaranteeing a Group of 5 team then that leaves 10 spots or more precisely 6 at large spots from the Power 4. I don't think 5 B10 teams get in.

Let's take a look.

-OSU is in like they always are. Looking at their schedule their toughest tests are @Texas, @ USC, @ Indiana and home vs Oregon. I think they go 11-1 and undefeated in B10 play losing just to Texas early

- Oregon: Predict they win at USC but lose at OSU. 11-1

Michigan: 9-3 losing at Oregon and at OSU and home to Indiana

USC: 8-4 losing at PSU and at Indiana and home to Oregon and OSU

PSU: 10-2 Lose at Michigan and Washington

Washington: 9-3 Lose at USC, at Oregon and home to Indiana

-Indiana: 11-1 losing to OSU

If this plays out like this then we make it but if a few games don't go this way we could easily be on the outside. Michigan and Washington are the key teams that will impact our fate since I predict we lose to both. The other team is Indiana. I think they need three losses otherwise they will get in ahead of us.

Michigan beats Indiana at home and that means both teams are 10-2. Michigan in over us due to head to head. I think Indiana is in ahead of us as well due to beating Washington on the road (something we couldn't do).

Another scenario is Washington beats Indiana and finishes 10-2 but Indiana does beat Michigan so still 10-2 with wins over Michigan and USC. Washington would go, Indiana would go over us.

We could come up with scenarios until the cows come home but because of our weak schedule 10-2 foes not make us a lock.

Althon prediction:

1) OSU
2) Indy
3) Oregon
4) Michigan
----------------
5) USC
6) Washington
7) PSU
8) Iowa

IMO at best USC is a 60/40 game because of our home field advantage
@ Michigan is probably a 30/70 game
@ Washington is probably a 40/60 game

It's going to be difficult to overtake Michigan, USC, and Washington in order to reach the playoffs. IMO we'll have to win 2 of those 3 games which is an extremely tall order. Remember ND didn't make it with losses to A&M & Miami. PSU is going to need a signature win and I'm not sure beating an 11th ranked team (UM, USC, Wash) will be enough.

Not to be a Debbie Downer but I think 2027 looks worse. Becht and the other seniors will be gone and replaced with recruits from the 60th ranked class of 2026 + whatever we can pick up in the portal. IMO 9 or 10 wins will be critical to our ability to add quality players for 2027.

 

[Frank Lee]

I'm confident that CMC will ensure the fundamentals are in place for player physical development, play execution, and calling the right plays at the right time. The ISU guys will be sound, the DL will clog the middle, the LBs won't get caught flat footed, and the McSorley-type QB will hit receivers. The TE room will be Freiermuth times three. What's missing is a Hamler, but schemes should get a few WRs open downfield.
I don't see any game where PSU will be a big underdog. And unlike the BGJ days, there will be resolve and heroics to win those tight games. Prediction: 11-1 (referines?) with the program getting its swagger and testosterone back.

 

[bdroc]

I'm confident that CMC will ensure the fundamentals are in place for player physical development, play execution, and calling the right plays at the right time. The ISU guys will be sound, the DL will clog the middle, the LBs won't get caught flat footed, and the McSorley-type QB will hit receivers. The TE room will be Freiermuth times three. What's missing is a Hamler, but schemes should get a few WRs open downfield.
I don't see any game where PSU will be a big underdog. And unlike the BGJ days, there will be resolve and heroics to win those tight games. Prediction: 11-1 (referines?) with the program getting its swagger and testosterone back.

I'm hoping for that too. I'm just not as confident as you that we can take Iowa/Iowa State type talent and compete with top teams with superior coaching.

 

[ryoder1]

Didn't the SEC just get 5 teams in and that conference was absolutely horrible in the post-season? There is SEC bias in the polls, but I assume with the Big 10 absolutely dominating them for the last 3 years and the SEC having the worst win % in the bowls against other conferences (4-9 overall but 2-7 against other conferences), the Big 10 was 8-3 verses other conferences for reference (9-4 overall). This is pretty strong evidence that the SEC was way over-rated and the Big 10 was under-rated.

I don't see us getting in as the 5th B10 team if our lone good win is vs USC, for example.

Depending on how it goes in the SEC, B12 and the ACC, we may not get in as the 4th B10 team at 10-2. Not out of the question. Four from SEC, three from B10, three from B12 and ACC, ND and Group of 5. All that needs to happen is another at large from one of the other conferences beats us out. A variable is how we look in our losses. If we are pretty competitive then we have a better chance.

 

[ryoder1]

I'm confident that CMC will ensure the fundamentals are in place for player physical development, play execution, and calling the right plays at the right time. The ISU guys will be sound, the DL will clog the middle, the LBs won't get caught flat footed, and the McSorley-type QB will hit receivers. The TE room will be Freiermuth times three. What's missing is a Hamler, but schemes should get a few WRs open downfield.
I don't see any game where PSU will be a big underdog. And unlike the BGJ days, there will be resolve and heroics to win those tight games. Prediction: 11-1 (referines?) with the program getting its swagger and testosterone back.

Yes, I can see Campbell changing the soft culture to a tough, disciplined team that actually steps up in big games and at winning time. Something the BGJ teams could not do. I think this was a core reason that he was hired.

With that said, I see it being a tall task to knock off either Michigan at home (Whittingham is much better than Sherrone Moore and his teams are always well coached and physical) and Washington (very good at home, long west coast trip, a lot of talent and excellent QB).

 

[Frank Lee]

Althon prediction:

1) OSU
2) Indy
3) Oregon
4) Michigan
----------------
5) USC
6) Washington
7) PSU
8) Iowa

IMO at best USC is a 60/40 game because of our home field advantage
@ Michigan is probably a 30/70 game
@ Washington is probably a 40/60 game

It's going to be difficult to overtake Michigan, USC, and Washington in order to reach the playoffs. IMO we'll have to win 2 of those 3 games which is an extremely tall order. Remember ND didn't make it with losses to A&M & Miami. PSU is going to need a signature win and I'm not sure beating an 11th ranked team (UM, USC, Wash) will be enough.

Not to be a Debbie Downer but I think 2027 looks worse. Becht and the other seniors will be gone and replaced with recruits from the 60th ranked class of 2026 + whatever we can pick up in the portal. IMO 9 or 10 wins will be critical to our ability to add quality players for 2027.

2025 College Football Preview: Athlon Sports Drops Top 25 Poll

Is it really Texas's world and everyone else is just living in it as we enter the 2025 college football season?

www.si.com

USC losing its two NFL receivers, Indy losing Mendoza, UM getting clocked by UT in the bowl game. Selecting these teams is like presenting Meryl Streep an Oscar because that's what you're supposed to do.

 

[LudicrousSpeedGO!]

Althon prediction:

1) OSU
2) Indy
3) Oregon
4) Michigan
----------------
5) USC
6) Washington
7) PSU
8) Iowa

IMO at best USC is a 60/40 game because of our home field advantage
@ Michigan is probably a 30/70 game
@ Washington is probably a 40/60 game

It's going to be difficult to overtake Michigan, USC, and Washington in order to reach the playoffs. IMO we'll have to win 2 of those 3 games which is an extremely tall order. Remember ND didn't make it with losses to A&M & Miami. PSU is going to need a signature win and I'm not sure beating an 11th ranked team (UM, USC, Wash) will be enough.

Not to be a Debbie Downer but I think 2027 looks worse. Becht and the other seniors will be gone and replaced with recruits from the 60th ranked class of 2026 + whatever we can pick up in the portal. IMO 9 or 10 wins will be critical to our ability to add quality players for 2027.

Ohio St could lose 3 or more. There are 7 teams that legitimately have a shot at beating them.
Texas
Illinois
Iowa
Indiana
USC
Oregon
Michigan

Indiana could lose 3 or more. There are 5 teams that legitimately have a shot at beating them.
Ohio St
Michigan
Minnesota
USC
Washington

Oregon could lose 3 or more. There are 6 teams that legitimately have a shot at beating them.
Boise St
USC
Illinois
Ohio St
Michigan
Washington


Michigan could have 5 losses. There are 7 teams that legitimately have a shot at beating them.
Oklahoma
Iowa
Minnesota
PSU
Indiana
Oregon
Ohio St

USC could lose 3 or more. There are 5 teams that legitimately could beat them.
Oregon
Washington
PSU
Ohio St
Indiana

Washington could lose 4 or more. There are 6 teams that legitimately could beat them.
Minnesota
USC
Iowa
PSU
Indiana
Oregon

 

[ryoder1]

2025 College Football Preview: Athlon Sports Drops Top 25 Poll

Is it really Texas's world and everyone else is just living in it as we enter the 2025 college football season?

www.si.com

USC losing its two NFL receivers, Indy losing Mendoza, UM getting clocked by UT in the bowl game. Selecting these teams is like presenting Meryl Streep an Oscar because that's what you're supposed to do.

All these teams have returning talent.

Indiana for example is replacing Mendoza with an outstanding portal transfer from TCU. They picked up Nick Marsh (remember him?) from MSU at WR and got an excellent LB. Plus they have returning talent from a team that just won the NC. Oh, and probably the best coach in college football.

Michigan and their performance in their bowl game is not a good data point. No coach for starters. They have Underwood at QB with a ton of potential.

USC? Maybe they will backslide. I predict they will have 4 losses and we beat them. Their QB is good and a returning starter, I know that.

Your suggestion that these teams are all pretenders and living off their past success is not valid. They should be legitimate good teams.

 

[Frank Lee]

All these teams have returning talent.

Indiana for example is replacing Mendoza with an outstanding portal transfer from TCU. They picked up Nick Marsh (remember him?) from MSU at WR and got an excellent LB. Plus they have returning talent from a team that just won the NC. Oh, and probably the best coach in college football.

Michigan and their performance in their bowl game is not a good data point. No coach for starters. They have Underwood at QB with a ton of potential.

USC? Maybe they will backslide. I predict they will have 4 losses and we beat them. Their QB is good and a returning starter, I know that.

Your suggestion that these teams are all pretenders and living off their past success is not valid. They should be legitimate good teams.

I'm not stating that they won't have talent, but in this day and age, the rankings are just throwing darts.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/2025-passing.html

For example, 2025 QB Ratings: Mendoza 182, Hoover 153. Will Becht return to 2024 form? What can Maiava do without star receivers? Many unknown variables regarding talent assessment, fit, and luck.

 

[GregInPitt]

Althon prediction:

1) OSU
2) Indy
3) Oregon
4) Michigan
----------------
5) USC
6) Washington
7) PSU
8) Iowa

IMO at best USC is a 60/40 game because of our home field advantage
@ Michigan is probably a 30/70 game
@ Washington is probably a 40/60 game

It's going to be difficult to overtake Michigan, USC, and Washington in order to reach the playoffs. IMO we'll have to win 2 of those 3 games which is an extremely tall order. Remember ND didn't make it with losses to A&M & Miami. PSU is going to need a signature win and I'm not sure beating an 11th ranked team (UM, USC, Wash) will be enough.

Not to be a Debbie Downer but I think 2027 looks worse. Becht and the other seniors will be gone and replaced with recruits from the 60th ranked class of 2026 + whatever we can pick up in the portal. IMO 9 or 10 wins will be critical to our ability to add quality players for 2027.

I haven't looked at the 2027 schedule and the loss of Becht and some other 2026 seniors will be tough to replace. But in todays portal era it can be done. There are also some positions of strength for 2027 that could include OL, RB and possibly CB and DE. It just depends on what Coach Campbell can do in the NIL/portal era, and he showed he was pretty good at it at ISU. I'm looking forward to seeing what he does in the next year with the 2027 class as well as in next year's January transfer portal.

 

[LudicrousSpeedGO!]

I don't see us getting in as the 5th B10 team if our lone good win is vs USC, for example.

Depending on how it goes in the SEC, B12 and the ACC, we may not get in as the 4th B10 team at 10-2. Not out of the question. Four from SEC, three from B10, three from B12 and ACC, ND and Group of 5. All that needs to happen is another at large from one of the other conferences beats us out. A variable is how we look in our losses. If we are pretty competitive then we have a better chance.

Possible but it is also quite possible that we are 3rd or higher in the Big 10. See my post above for the schedules of those predicted to finish above us. Most of them play each other. Most them play several of the top 5 projected finishers in the Big 10. One of the teams in a top 5 matchup has to lose.

 

[bdroc]

I haven't looked at the 2027 schedule and the loss of Becht and some other 2026 seniors will be tough to replace. But in todays portal era it can be done. There are also some positions of strength for 2027 that could include OL, RB and possibly CB and DE. It just depends on what Coach Campbell can do in the NIL/portal era, and he showed he was pretty good at it at ISU. I'm looking forward to seeing what he does in the next year with the 2027 class as well as in next year's January transfer portal.

There's a big difference between:

A) Starting with 80 players from top 10 recruiting classes and beefing up a few weak areas with portal transfers.

B) Starting with 40 players from relatively poor recruiting classes and expecting to compete by adding 25 of the best portal players.

 

[bdroc]

Ohio St could lose 3 or more. There are 7 teams that legitimately have a shot at beating them.
Texas
Illinois
Iowa
Indiana
USC
Oregon
Michigan

Indiana could lose 3 or more. There are 5 teams that legitimately have a shot at beating them.
Ohio St
Michigan
Minnesota
USC
Washington

Oregon could lose 3 or more. There are 6 teams that legitimately have a shot at beating them.
Boise St
USC
Illinois
Ohio St
Michigan
Washington


Michigan could have 5 losses. There are 7 teams that legitimately have a shot at beating them.
Oklahoma
Iowa
Minnesota
PSU
Indiana
Oregon
Ohio St

USC could lose 3 or more. There are 5 teams that legitimately could beat them.
Oregon
Washington
PSU
Ohio St
Indiana

Washington could lose 4 or more. There are 6 teams that legitimately could beat them.
Minnesota
USC
Iowa
PSU
Indiana
Oregon

I understand that a lot of things can happen. I also understand that some things can't happen - like Indy beating OSU AND OSU beating Indy. Someone is going to win and someone is going to lose.

So sure it's possible that a couple of teams ahead of us in the preseason rankings lose 2 or 3 games but not all of them.

If we were the #5 team it would only take one or two upsets to get us into the top 4 and a playoff berth. But starting at #7 means we have to pass 3 teams. That's a tall order.

 

[GregInPitt]

There's a big difference between:

A) Starting with 80 players from top 10 recruiting classes and beefing up a few weak areas with portal transfers.

B) Starting with 40 players from relatively poor recruiting classes and expecting to compete by adding 25 of the best portal players.

Yep, and it would seem likely that if Campbell can recruit a top 10 2027 class he can get 5 or more players that would be potential starters. And fortuately there are some very talented young players that should still be playing for the team in 2027. Dixon and Joseph at CB, Goodman and some others on the OL, .....

With NIL and the transfer portal there will be many teams facing the same numbers game so we just have to hope that Campbell is better at dealing with it than the coaches he is going against. I don't believe any top 25 team will have 80 returning player in any year going forward within the current NIL and transfer portal system.

 

[LudicrousSpeedGO!]

I understand that a lot of things can happen. I also understand that some things can't happen - like Indy beating OSU AND OSU beating Indy. Someone is going to win and someone is going to lose.

So sure it's possible that a couple of teams ahead of us in the preseason rankings lose 2 or 3 games but not all of them.

If we were the #5 team it would only take one or two upsets to get us into the top 4 and a playoff berth. But starting at #7 means we have to pass 3 teams. That's a tall order.

I'll just do a projection, one of many possible permutations as an example (specific wins and losses for each team shown below). Here PSU loses 2 and finishes 4th in the Big 10. Ohio St, Indiana, and Oregon could each lose none or 2 (or more) and that slightly changes things, fewer losses equate to more losses for others and more losses means slightly fewer losses for others. I have each of those 3 teams finishing with 1 loss and ahead of PSU.

I find it hard to believe that Michigan or USC will finish with 2 or fewer losses with their schedule. This projection has them each at 4 losses. Washington has an outside shot at 2 losses but I think the most likely scenario is at least 3 (I have them at 3 here).

Lastly, all of this assumes that Ohio St, Indiana, Oregon, Michigan, USC, and Washington go through their entire schedules and not 1 of of those 6 schools loses to a team that they shouldn't. So of the teams that I list below that are all legit threats to sneak an upset win over these 6 schools, those 6 schools would need to go 11-0 against the likes of Texas, Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, and PSU where I've projected them to have wins. Hint, I think at least 1 or more upsets there are very possible out of 11 games.

Ohio St 1 loss finish tied for first.
Texas W
Illinois W
Iowa W
Indiana W
USC W
Oregon L
Michigan W

Indiana 1 Loss finish tied for 1st
Ohio St L
Michigan W
Minnesota W
USC W
Washington W

Oregon 1 loss tied for 1st.
Boise St W
USC W
Illinois W
Ohio St W
Michigan L
Washington W


Michigan 4 losses.
Oklahoma L
Iowa W
Minnesota W
PSU W
Indiana L
Oregon L
Ohio St L

USC 4 losses.
Oregon L
Washington W
PSU L
Ohio St L
Indiana L

Washington 3 losses.
Minnesota W
USC L
Iowa W
PSU W
Indiana L
Oregon L

 

[Frank Lee]

2025 College Football Preview: Athlon Sports Drops Top 25 Poll

Is it really Texas's world and everyone else is just living in it as we enter the 2025 college football season?

www.si.com

Here are the experts at Athlon with its very poor projections about the 2025 season. Even 3 of the 4 pregame show guys projected Miami to win the championship game. If PSU has improved its coavhing, LBs, WRs, DL, and TEs, and held its ground on OL, DEs, CBs, and Safeties, all while getting a Grunk who can run, then it has as good a chance as any ...as do the other Big10 teams. And if the RBs can hit the holes hard and get first downs when needed, that's better than getting stacked up at the LOS like Nick had a tendency to do. There is no valid hierarchy at this point. Again, IMHO.

What specifics does anyone know about any team's roster at this point? "I think X will beat Y". Based on what?

 

[ryoder1]

I'll just do a projection, one of many possible permutations as an example (specific wins and losses for each team shown below). Here PSU loses 2 and finishes 4th in the Big 10. Ohio St, Indiana, and Oregon could each lose none or 2 (or more) and that slightly changes things, fewer losses equate to more losses for others and more losses means slightly fewer losses for others. I have each of those 3 teams finishing with 1 loss and ahead of PSU.

I find it hard to believe that Michigan or USC will finish with 2 or fewer losses with their schedule. This projection has them each at 4 losses. Washington has an outside shot at 2 losses but I think the most likely scenario is at least 3 (I have them at 3 here).

Lastly, all of this assumes that Ohio St, Indiana, Oregon, Michigan, USC, and Washington go through their entire schedules and not 1 of of those 6 schools loses to a team that they shouldn't. So of the teams that I list below that are all legit threats to sneak an upset win over these 6 schools, those 6 schools would need to go 11-0 against the likes of Texas, Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, and PSU where I've projected them to have wins. Hint, I think at least 1 or more upsets there are very possible out of 11 games.

Ohio St 1 loss finish tied for first.
Texas W
Illinois W
Iowa W
Indiana W
USC W
Oregon L
Michigan W

Indiana 1 Loss finish tied for 1st
Ohio St L
Michigan W
Minnesota W
USC W
Washington W

Oregon 1 loss tied for 1st.
Boise St W
USC W
Illinois W
Ohio St W
Michigan L
Washington W


Michigan 4 losses.
Oklahoma L
Iowa W
Minnesota W
PSU W
Indiana L
Oregon L
Ohio St L

USC 4 losses.
Oregon L
Washington W
PSU L
Ohio St L
Indiana L

Washington 3 losses.
Minnesota W
USC L
Iowa W
PSU W
Indiana L
Oregon L

My overall point is Penn State with 10 wins is by no means a lock for the playoffs because of the weak schedule. I don't see us finishing in the top 3. I think that will be OSU, IU and Oregon. They all may only have one loss with OSU just losing to Texas on the road. Your projections are essentially in line with that.

IF we lose to Michigan and UDub then we need some help such as both those teams finishing with 3 or more losses.

That is very possible. A key game would be for UDub to lose at USC. And lose at home to Indiana and at Oregon. Michigan will lose to OSU and at Oregon. I think they beat Oklahoma at home but we do need them to pick up a third loss against Indiana.

The most unfavorable scenario for us is you have everyone with one or two losses. Because of our weak schedule we will not impress the committee relative to the other teams.

OSU 10-2 losses to Texas and Indiana
Indiana 10-2 losses to Michigan and Washington
Oregon 11-1 loss to OSU
Michigan 10-2 losses to Oregon and OSU
Washington losses to Oregon and USC
USC 4 losses to Oregon, PSU, OSU and Indiana
PSU 2 losses to Michigan and Washington

We would be sixth in this scenario because our one quality win does not match the others.

Our big win is 4 loss USC
Oregon 11-1 higher than us
OSU 10-2 and only one in conference loss plus a good loss to Texas. They hand Oregon their only conf loss Better resume than us.
Indiana 10-2. Losses to the same two teams as us but they beat OSU. Better resume than us.
Michigan 10-2 beat us head to head.
Washington 10-2 beat us head to head.

 

[Frank Lee]

Some famous game ending interceptions resulting in losses. Vs. Oregon in the Big10 championship game; vs. ND in the Nat'l semifinal; vs. Oregon in the 2025 white out game. Add to that Grunk's success.
We're covering the possible improvements and drop offs in many of the position rooms for 2026, but maybe a simple change in QBs will improve team performance (i.e winning) by 20%-30% in 2026.