Will we make the CFP?

[Jerry]

Updated ESPN power index says PSU now has a 22.6% chance of even making the playoff.

2025 College Football Power Index - ESPN

View the 2025 College Football power index on ESPN. The FPI is the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season.

www.espn.com

Well they're now projecting us to have 3 losses, presumably to include the Indiana game, and if that happens, then our chances of making the playoff are in fact even less than 22.6%.

Meanwhile, they give Vanderbilt a 43% chance, which frankly seems ridiculous.

In any case, we can no longer take wins against Iowa or Nebraska for granted...let alone Indiana. I would think after Saturday night the word is out around the league -- honestly, it was probably out even before Saturday night -- that the plan on D should be to stop the run, take away the dink-and-doink stuff in the passing game, and force Drew to make throws downfield. He has not shown a consistent ability to do that against quality defenses.

 

[bdroc]

Well they're now projecting us to have 3 losses, presumably to include the Indiana game, and if that happens, then our chances of making the playoff are in fact even less than 22.6%.

Meanwhile, they give Vanderbilt a 43% chance, which frankly seems ridiculous.

In any case, we can no longer take wins against Iowa or Nebraska for granted...let alone Indiana. I would think after Saturday night the word is out around the league -- honestly, it was probably out even before Saturday night -- that the plan on D should be to stop the run, take away the dink-and-doink stuff in the passing game, and force Drew to make throws downfield. He has not shown a consistent ability to do that against quality defenses.

The SEC will get 4 teams (A&M, Tx, Ga, Ala, Miss, Tenn, etc)
The BiG will get 3 or 4 teams (OSU, OR, Indy, PSU, Mich, ILL, USC)
The Big 12 will get 1-2 teams (BYU, T Tech, IA St)
The ACC will get 1-2 teams (Mia, GT)
ND gets in if they win out

Things are about to get real for MIZZ and Vanderbilt. IMO MIZZ is a long shot and Vandy has no shot.

OSU & OR are locks in the BiG. If the BiG gets 4 teams the other two will probably come from ILL, USC, IND, and Mich).

ILL has a bad loss and they play OSU at home. After that their next toughest game is Washington.
USC lost to ILL and still has to play ND & Oregon. They're a long shot.
IND is 5-0 with games remaining vs OSU & PSU. They're tough to figure out at this point.
Mich lost to OK and their only remaining ranked opponent is OSU. I think their chance is as good as PSU.
PSU lost to Oregon in OT and still must play OSU & IND. IND is at home and should be a big game.

Bottom line is PSU has to beat Indy and not slip up against a team like Nebraska or Iowa.

 

[GregInPitt]

Not sure what egg heads at ESPN have done to create this useless model but when it lists Vanderbilt, Missouri and BYU as having a higher probability than us of making the playoff then it loses credibility.

Thought it might be that those teams have easy schedules to get through that will more likely result in better oveall W/L records, but that doesn't seem to be the case.

 

[sr108]

PSU was good enough to take the #2 team in the country to two OTs so they should have a good chance. Unfortunately they can't afford any more slip ups. I doubt that Allar will improve at this point but we could certainly finish 10-2 and make the playoffs. I'll say it's 50-50.

UCLA is 0-4 (95% win)
NW is 2-2 (90% win)
Iowa is 3-2 (75% win)
OSU is 4-0 (20% win)
Indiana is 5-0 (65% win)
MSU is 3-1 (80% win)
NEB is 3-1 (70% win)
RUT 3-2 (90% win)

We make the playoffs if we win every game where we're favored but we come up short with just one slip up. I don't know what to make of Indiana. They blew out Illinois but struggled to beat Iowa.

Not sure about Indiana being 65% win at this point. They have performed and executed much better than we have so far.

 

[Pnnylion]

PSU will make the playoffs. At least with the playoff games it won’t be B10 officials.

 

[Lazy Dave]

I would think after Saturday night the word is out around the league -- honestly, it was probably out even before Saturday night -- that the plan on D should be to stop the run, take away the dink-and-doink stuff in the passing game, and force Drew to make throws downfield. He has not shown a consistent ability to do that against quality defenses.

Outside of Oregon, not many others on the schedule will be able to do this. OSU, sure. Indiana, hmm, maybe? Iowa, perhaps they Kinnick-magic us and play solid, but they won't score any points.

Right now, we're all pissed. The offense shìt the bed for 48 minutes. This defense is still really good. Do we think Oregon gets held under 17 the rest of the year?

Truthfully, we could have pulled this one out and had better control of our destiny, but the same warts would be here. I think it's great that we somehow came back in the 4th quarter and sent the game to OT.

 

[SummitLion]

Not sure about Indiana being 65% win at this point. They have performed and executed much better than we have so far.

Of our game agai st Iowa is as close as Indiana played them, this board will go nuts, and the Internet will say we suck.