Assume that athletic ability, actual or potential, is equally distributed across the country that had an equally distributed gene pool. With that said, 90%+ of HS FB players deemed 5-star are from the sunbelt. My contention is that great players exist everywhere, but just aren't being showcased or recognized as they are in some regions of the country. If Warren or Carter had played at say Mater Dei or IMG, then they would have been 5-stars. IMO, some 5-stars are 4-stars and some 4-stars are 5-stars. I think the PSU braintrust has this figured out.
5-stars
- Thread starter Frank Lee
- Start date
GregInPitt
Active member
Carter was somewhat under the radar as he reportedly didn't go to camps which is what players that end up as 5 star rated do. So it would seem that if he had attended camps, regardless of his being in Philly or in the sun belt he may have been higher rated by the "experts". But then again maybe that attention would have brough the schools that were paying "NIL" before there was NIL to Philly after Carter and PSU would have had a harder time getting him to PSU.
Warren, although an excellent athlete as confirmed by his basketball ability, was a high school QB. Players that get rated 5 stars at a position almost always (pretty much always) have played that position in high school and also excelled at that position in high school with extensive highlights tape to prove it, and have showcased that position at camps, which Warren didn't do. I don't see any way that Warren would have ever been rated a 5 star TE coming out of high school having played QB. Just a great job by the PSU staff projecting his athletic ability to TE and a great job by Warren in the PSU S&C program and working to learn his craft as a TE, using his athleticism and desire to make the catches that are rarely made and pretty much making it look easy!!!
LionDeNittany
Active member
The part you're missing is that there are different priority sports in different regions.
In the north east, and definitely in the metro area, top athletes will be put into basketball from a young age.
In some areas, baseball.
In other aareas football.
These kids are put into these programs at young ages and focus on one sport.
LdN
GregInPitt
Active member
Overall, I'm not upset at all that Franklin and his staff are not bringing in as many players rated 5 star as other top teams, especially now in the NIL era where a crazy alum can step in and buy a player like what was don in the 2025 cycle with the top QB that was committed to LSU but took a crazy offer to flip to Michigan. I'm more concerned when Franklin doesn't get commits from his early offers and has to go to newly offered players later in the cycle to fill out the class. Franklin has proven to be an excellent evaluator of talent and he and his staff have a record of identying top talent earlier that many other top programs, like he did with the QB's Fields and Allar. It's unfortunate that in the 2026 cycle a good number of his early targets really blew up and became the focus of the biggest NIL $$ teams. But even with the recent losses of some top targets to commitments elsewhere PSU still has a good many of their top targets committed, and I expect some of those commits to outperform their "ratings" based upon Franklin's and his staff's ability to identify talent and players that will develop into top B10 players at PSU with the coaching and the support of the PSU program.
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Agree…coaches have it figured out.
—While watching ( sometimes in person) Franklin and some other Penn State coaches identify and evaluate talent over the last 10+ years , it’s glaringly apparent that they are better…… and a better predictor of success, than the star system. —Although the star system is generally helpful, it is inherently biased and , as it’s used to produce content ( news), more subjective than evals from really good coaches. —Ultimately, the player’s offer list is a significantly better indicator than stars. I’ve seen many ( and I mean many) 3 star kids with “4 star offers” ( multiple offers from top schools). Top coaches are always better evaluators than the journalist/analyst/former player contingent whose system is designed to both report and create content.
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The star ratings aren't perfect but teams who get the most 4/5* tend to win the most games.
I wish I could agree but PSU recruited players like Joey O'Brien and Immanuel Iheanacho. It's not like PSU passed on them because they identified and evaluated better talent.
PSU's recruiting has averaged 15th over the last 4 years. The 2022 class was ranked 6th with players like Allar, Singleton, Allen, DDS, & Carter. That's why we finished 5th last year and are projected to do the same this year. 2026 will be interesting. Can PSU make the CFP with players from 15th ranked classes?
Of course the portal will come into play.
Allar, Singleton, even DDS to some degree you can say are huge parts of our recent success AND 6th ranked class ranking from that year, but look deeper. Carter wasn't a top 100 player even though he turned out to play like a top 5 gut.
The reality is, you gotta develop players. The middle to bottom portion of that class is more impressive than most of the highly rated kids from 4-11.
If anything, the lack of WR prospects amounting to much from this group is more detrimental than its supposed 6th ranking.
Not sure about the current ratings system, but at one time a kid spark rating was part of their rank. This was a number given to all athletes who go to the camps based on their athleticism and strength. So those kids could be hyper athletic for their size but not really be good in game situations or have football instincts.
My argument is that O’Brien and Iheanacho ( and other 4/5 stars) would have been identified and recruited heavily even if they were 3 stars….or no stars. The very good coaches see talent more clearly and consistently than recruiting services. — Penn State “whiffed” on those two, but not everyone wants to come to Happy Valley. Notre Dame is a good school, and NIL dollars are a major variable .
—Yes, we’re averaging “top 15” classes by some people’s measure, but we’re ending up with 10+ wins and top 10 and top 5 finishes….so it doesn’t directly correlate ( strength of schedule also is impactful).
—And you’re absolutely right right, the “free agent market”/portal definitely comes in to play ( bringing in players who have demonstrated that they can produce at this level….not guessing on high school recruits )
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Jokerman
Active member
Just an FYI, O'Brien was never coming to Penn State, unfortunately. Just wasn't going to happen. He's a huge ND fan and was not remotely going to see the field here in year one.
All of them were at least solid contributors. Too bad about Landon. Individual rankings are fine, but I'm not a big fan of the class ranking idea based on points since different teams have different numbers of people to replace each year. If you only need a few players you get a low ranking even if they are all really good.
I don't see evidence that our staff has been superior (or inferior) at identifying and coaching up under the radar talent. Maybe McSorley fits that description. That's not meant to be a criticism. I'm just saying that we've recruited somewhere between 12 and 15 and that's how we performed on the field. The exception is the 6th ranked class of 2022 that got us our first top 5 finish under Franklin.
Penn State has finished in the top 10 Five times since 2016 . If you don’t count the Covid year ( and I don’t…it was worthless), that top 10 in 5 out of 8 years. Not too bad.
— The coaches have helped develop many “ 3 stars” ( according to 24/7) from 15-21’. ( all have earned at least some NFL or CFL paychecks…except Journey Brown who is a medical exception)
Robert Windsor
Kevin Givens
Will Freis
Shaka Toney
Sean Clifford
KJ Hammler
Journey Brown
Jahan Datson
Sal Wormley
Daequan Hardy
Ji Ayir Brown
Tyler Warren
Olu
Koby King
Arnold Ebikettie
Johnny Dixon
—also does not count the 3 stars QB’s who earned their degrees here and earned a pro paycheck after transferring ( Levi’s, Steven’s). — Also several 3 star kickers/punters….and I’m sure I missed a few other players
—I’m Just saying The coaches have a good track record of developing talent ….and punching above their recruiting class average
And while speed and fast twitch are things that are inborn, there's a huge difference, both mentally and physically, between an 18 year old and a 23 year old when it comes to playing football. S&C, passion, and work ethic over a 3 to 4 year period makes things pretty much equal.
NittanyLion99
Active member
^^^^^ THIS ^^^^^
Nothing is perfect, but on the aggregate, the star ratings are a very good predictor of success.
RickinDayton
Member
All of them started or are starting. Tengwell was on track to dominance and the injury ended his career.
Perhaps the two under achievers were Kalen King and Trey Wallace. I don't think Liam Clifford was expected to be a significant contributor. Overall, the coaching staff identified talent and developed them. I think Dinkins and Wheatley break out this year.