Is college football's portal system + NIL an equalizer?

[bdroc]

That's what a lot of people are saying but I think it's just the opposite. I think of the old days when Drew Brees was QB at Purdue and Josh Allen was QB at Wyoming. Today those schools probably couldn't offer enough money to attract those players. If they landed an under the radar player like Allen he would likely leave after a year or two for more money.

Look at this year's schedules. ND plays Miami but there are probably only 2 other opponents with a remote chance to beat them. Oregon Plays PSU but that's their only ranked opponent. Clemson opens against LSU but their only other ranked opponent is South Carolina. PSU has a much more difficult schedule because they play Oregon & OSU but their only other ranked opponent is #20 Indiana. My point is that a lot of schools are virtually guaranteed a playoff spot because they only play a couple of teams capable of beating them. It seems like the gap between the haves and have nots is increasing.

 

[Sheriff Coffee]

That's what a lot of people are saying but I think it's just the opposite. I think of the old days when Drew Brees was QB at Purdue and Josh Allen was QB at Wyoming. Today those schools probably couldn't offer enough money to attract those players. If they landed an under the radar player like Allen he would likely leave after a year or two for more money.

Look at this year's schedules. ND plays Miami but there are probably only 2 other opponents with a remote chance to beat them. Oregon Plays PSU but that's their only ranked opponent. Clemson opens against LSU but their only other ranked opponent is South Carolina. PSU has a much more difficult schedule because they play Oregon & OSU but their only other ranked opponent is #20 Indiana. My point is that a lot of schools are virtually guaranteed a playoff spot because they only play a couple of teams capable of beating them. It seems like the gap between the haves and have nots is increasing.

I think most college teams are still figuring it out. That is why they are hiring GMs like NFL teams do. They are going to have to evaluate players on value and not just talent, Positions too. Do you pay the same for a QB as you do a Center? How about an OLB and a CB?

But it is clear that the big money teams will be able to pay more for talent than mid-tier teams. It will be interesting to see what happens to five-star kids that don't pan out but are sucking up a lot of NIL revenue. Do they portal out to get a shot at the NFL or maximize their income while in college?

I hope college football doesn't become like the MLB league.

I think the NFL is going to have to adjust as well. Interesting to see that some college players can make as much or more than being a second or third round pick. In addition, players like jeremiah smith, who is clearly NFL-ready but can't go until he satisfies the CBA threshold between the players' association and the NFL.

 

[LudicrousSpeedGO!]

Definitely a different world in college football. I just wish there was a salary cap with this NIL and a limit on portal with immediate playing time. It's no salary cap and constant free agency. There are teams tampering with rosters. I wonder if teams are tampering in season and even possibly in games. I would at one point have said no but Michigan just proved that there are no rules and you can openly cheat during the games with impunity. Who's to say an opponent player can't be offered $1m to sit a game out.

 

[bdroc]

Definitely a different world in college football. I just wish there was a salary cap with this NIL and a limit on portal with immediate playing time. It's no salary cap and constant free agency. There are teams tampering with rosters. I wonder if teams are tampering in season and even possibly in games. I would at one point have said no but Michigan just proved that there are no rules and you can openly cheat during the games with impunity. Who's to say an opponent player can't be offered $1m to sit a game out.

There is a $20 million cap on revenue sharing but I don't think they can apply that to NIL. I don't know if the NCAA can limit portal transfers.

Here's another question. Let's say you're paying a star player $3 million as a freshman and sophomore but a lot of kids are graduating and you expect the coming year to be a rebuilding period. Can the school take away his $3 million deal and encourage him to transfer? They might be better off keeping that $3 million to help rebuild.

 

[LionDeNittany]

That's what a lot of people are saying but I think it's just the opposite. I think of the old days when Drew Brees was QB at Purdue and Josh Allen was QB at Wyoming. Today those schools probably couldn't offer enough money to attract those players. If they landed an under the radar player like Allen he would likely leave after a year or two for more money.

Look at this year's schedules. ND plays Miami but there are probably only 2 other opponents with a remote chance to beat them. Oregon Plays PSU but that's their only ranked opponent. Clemson opens against LSU but their only other ranked opponent is South Carolina. PSU has a much more difficult schedule because they play Oregon & OSU but their only other ranked opponent is #20 Indiana. My point is that a lot of schools are virtually guaranteed a playoff spot because they only play a couple of teams capable of beating them. It seems like the gap between the haves and have nots is increasing.

Did you see the NCAA basketball tournament?

It's the opposite of an equalizer.

There are no more cindarellas.

 

[LudicrousSpeedGO!]

There is a $20 million cap on revenue sharing but I don't think they can apply that to NIL. I don't know if the NCAA can limit portal transfers.

Here's another question. Let's say you're paying a star player $3 million as a freshman and sophomore but a lot of kids are graduating and you expect the coming year to be a rebuilding period. Can the school take away his $3 million deal and encourage him to transfer? They might be better off keeping that $3 million to help rebuild.

Yes, I agree that the revenue sharing is a partial equalizer. Instead of Ohio St spending $20m and PSU spending $10m (just a guess), you would have Ohio St spending $40m and PSU at $30m with the revenue sharing added in. But yes, they don't limit the NIL and I don't think it currently could be by law unless there was some collective bargaining agreement in place.

You are also correct in that there will be some tricky roster management situations that we didn't have before. You are paying an elite player that is rehabbing from an injury. Do they take a pay cut on next season because you don't know if they fully recover? Do you suck up the player's NIL and continue to pay it even though they now provide less value? Does the emergence of a young player at the position make the starter take a pay cut as they now are less indispensable to the team?

 

[Lazy Dave]

OSU is currently ranked 9th in the 2026 team rankings. That's coming off a national title. That's a change.

 

[LudicrousSpeedGO!]

OSU is currently ranked 9th in the 2026 team rankings. That's coming off a national title. That's a change.

If Ohio St falls to lower top 10 consistently, expect to win more against them in the past. They have always had such a massive talent advantage over us. That made it so difficult to pull off the upset because not only did they have that massive talent advantage but because we were their top threat (along with Michigan), they always had us circled on the schedule. So unlike a Purdue, we couldn't sneak up on them.

Ohio St with #1 talent in the country and more 5 stars than the rest of the conference combined was a very tall task. Ohio St with barely top 10 talent and several other schools in the conference pulling in top 20 classes is vulnerable. Let's see if this becomes a trend for them or just a 1 year abberation.

 

[Sheriff Coffee]

There is a $20 million cap on revenue sharing but I don't think they can apply that to NIL. I don't know if the NCAA can limit portal transfers.

Here's another question. Let's say you're paying a star player $3 million as a freshman and sophomore but a lot of kids are graduating and you expect the coming year to be a rebuilding period. Can the school take away his $3 million deal and encourage him to transfer? They might be better off keeping that $3 million to help rebuild.

Good question.

How about you are finishing up your third year and entering your last year of eligibility as a WR. The starting QB blows out a knee in spring practice, and the second-string QB is a dual-threat who isn't very good at passing.

Tangentially, the browns think they got a steal in a kid named Aiden Huntington. He is kind of a tweener at 6-1 and 280ish as a DL. He played three years at Kent. Then transferred and played a year at Louisiana-Monroe. Then transferred and finished up at Tulane. He goes undrafted and signs with the Browns as an RFA. The kid is really quick for his size with a very low center of gravity. He runs a 4.6 forty with an incredible 38-inch vertical leap. But he plays a lot like Aaron Donald. If he can be 1/10th Aaron Donald it was a steal. But after bouncing around with a mediocre college career, he may have made it in the NFL.

 

[bdroc]

OSU is currently ranked 9th in the 2026 team rankings. That's coming off a national title. That's a change.

It's not like Wisconsin is picked ahead of OSU.

BTW, OSU is 1.5 pt favorite over #1 Texas this week.

 

[NittanyLion99]

That's what a lot of people are saying but I think it's just the opposite. I think of the old days when Drew Brees was QB at Purdue and Josh Allen was QB at Wyoming. Today those schools probably couldn't offer enough money to attract those players. If they landed an under the radar player like Allen he would likely leave after a year or two for more money.

Look at this year's schedules. ND plays Miami but there are probably only 2 other opponents with a remote chance to beat them. Oregon Plays PSU but that's their only ranked opponent. Clemson opens against LSU but their only other ranked opponent is South Carolina. PSU has a much more difficult schedule because they play Oregon & OSU but their only other ranked opponent is #20 Indiana. My point is that a lot of schools are virtually guaranteed a playoff spot because they only play a couple of teams capable of beating them. It seems like the gap between the haves and have nots is increasing.

It might be an equalizer among the Top Tier (ie 2nd string QB at Alabama transfers to tOSU), but overall, the effect is that rich get richer and the poor stay poor. The portal, IMHO, will strengthen a caste system of college sports.
We've already seen it in Basketball, which is more obvious with smaller teams. For the first time ever, all 4 #1 seeds in the tourney made the Final 4. The mid-majors, which used to be able to make a run, may never happen again. As soon as a kid at a smaller school gets good, he's chasing the opportunity and NIL at a P4 school. We even saw it at PSU with Jalen Pickett. He played well at Siena and transferred to PSU and is now in the NBA. In years past, we had Stephen Curry at Davidson. No chance he would have stayed at Davidson after his Soph season today.

The"rich" teams will have the $20M and will dedicate most of it to FB and MBB.
They generally have bigger alumni/fan bases willing to write checks for NIL.
They have more program money for facilities and other plus ups for promotion, development, etc.

We will see this shake out over the next few years, but I don't see anyway that Portal +NIL doesn't create a near permanent class of 10-15? schools that win every Natty

 

[Lazy Dave]

It's not like Wisconsin is picked ahead of OSU.

BTW, OSU is 1.5 pt favorite over #1 Texas this week.

It's not about where OSU is picked for 2025 though. They are missing out on high end kids in the '26 cycle. This is after years of being at worst the 5th best recruiting team and coming of a national title, which should elevate recruiting.

I have to believe NIL is biting into that.

As for the Texas game, I think perception is based on 2 things: OSU has, arguably, the 2 best players in the country (Smith, Downs) and Texas has Arch, highly rated, but still very wait and see. Both teams replaced a ton. Both could very likely reload and not miss a beat, but both could lose an extra game or 3 than expected.

 

[bdroc]

It's not about where OSU is picked for 2025 though. They are missing out on high end kids in the '26 cycle. This is after years of being at worst the 5th best recruiting team and coming of a national title, which should elevate recruiting.

I have to believe NIL is biting into that.

As for the Texas game, I think perception is based on 2 things: OSU has, arguably, the 2 best players in the country (Smith, Downs) and Texas has Arch, highly rated, but still very wait and see. Both teams replaced a ton. Both could very likely reload and not miss a beat, but both could lose an extra game or 3 than expected.

OSU's class was ranked 4th in 2025, 9th so far in 2026. It's too early to say anything about 2027 but they have one commit and he's a 5*. I wish PSU would start "missing out" like that.

 

[Lazy Dave]

OSU's class was ranked 4th in 2025, 9th so far in 2026. It's too early to say anything about 2027 but they have one commit and he's a 5*. I wish PSU would start "missing out" like that.

Wishing we were missing on kids like OSU is this cycle is a bit different of a talk. We've been 12-16th ranked recruiting team for the past decade. They've been top 3. Them dropping to 9 is unusual. It doesn't matter that it's above our class. It's speaking on their class.

 

[LudicrousSpeedGO!]

OSU's class was ranked 4th in 2025, 9th so far in 2026. It's too early to say anything about 2027 but they have one commit and he's a 5*. I wish PSU would start "missing out" like that.

We appear to be putting a foundation down in the 2027 class for a top 5 class, top 10 if we simply miss on the big fish not already committed.

 

[bdroc]

We appear to be putting a foundation down in the 2027 class for a top 5 class, top 10 if we simply miss on the big fish not already committed.

I hope so but we were 15th the last two years and so far we have 2 4* commits for 2027

 

[LudicrousSpeedGO!]

I hope so but we were 15th the last two years and so far we have 2 4* commits for 2027

Two 5 stars and two 4 stars

2027 Recruit Football Team Rankings

In order to create the most comprehensive Team Recruiting Ranking without any notion of bias, 247Sports Team Recruiting Ranking is solely based on the 247Sports Composite Rating.

247sports.com

 

[bdroc]

Two 5 stars and two 4 stars

2027 Recruit Football Team Rankings

In order to create the most comprehensive Team Recruiting Ranking without any notion of bias, 247Sports Team Recruiting Ranking is solely based on the 247Sports Composite Rating.

247sports.com

OK I'm confused. I thought I only saw 2 commits. Your link shows 4 and all of them are 4* by 247 but two of them have a higher composite rating.

This is a great start but it's only 4 players.

 

[LudicrousSpeedGO!]

OK I'm confused. I thought I only saw 2 commits. Your link shows 4 and all of them are 4* by 247 but two of them have a higher composite rating.

This is a great start but it's only 4 players.

Yes, it shows them as 4 star when you look at the individual profiles but for the class, it lists two 5 stars and two 4 stars. My guess is that the profiles aren't updated yet for the normal rankings when that class becomes the current priority class by the rating service. For example, Spell's profile says 4 star and the #14 overall player in the country. We all know that there are more than 14 5-star players in each 247 rated class when all is said and done. The 2026 class has 32 5-stars. Spell is going to be a 5-star when they get to it.

The bottom line is that we currently have 4 commits in the 2027 class with the lowest rated being the #67 overall recruit in the nation. That's one heck of a start to a class. And many believe that we lead for OL Hiller who is currently ranked #34 overall in the nation.

We have a legit shot at WR McAfee #36 overall from Maryland, CB Meridith #5 overall from Texas (less confidence), and a few other top 100 guys as well.

 

[Lazy Dave]

I don't think anybody is classified as a 5* yet in 2027 class. Generally speaking, if you have a verbal from a top 32 player at this time, it's considering having one, but they are slow to give out the final star.

Went and looked. 247 has 0 awarded yet. On3/Rivals has 15.