Is NIL the primary reason we've lost top recruits for the 2026 class?

LudicrousSpeedGO!

LudicrousSpeedGO!

Well-known member
According to On3, Penn State is paying its players an average of $87,000. For the recruiting class of 2026, the number is even lower.

The site sources Penn State with a $59,000 average payout for players. That’s lower than Texas Tech ($81k), Washington ($72k), Ole Miss ($72k), South Carolina ($72k), and BYU ($69k).

Penn State is frequently in the final groupings for recruits who hold offers from Oregon ($232k), Georgia ($189k), Ohio State ($150k), Notre Dame ($104k), and Michigan ($91k), who all significantly outspend the Nittany Lions.

 
On3 podcast talked about this yesterday. We aren't offering HS kids huge bags. Good offers, but some teams are throwing crazy money. Look at USC beating us and OSU for the younger Wafle brother as a prime example (and the top 3 recruiting class currently).

Another factor that comes into play with a player like the Syracuse flip. How much are we offering a kid like him (that we usually could get with name recognition alone) compared to Syracuse going higher?

It's an interesting time. Be curious how it plays out.
 
With McKenna and Ono coming on board, it might be that Kraft and TPTB are quickly jumping on big opportunities first with the FB team poised for a 2025 natty run with what it's got. Then the focus reverts to FB for 2026.
 
LudicrousSpeedGO! said:
According to On3, Penn State is paying its players an average of $87,000. For the recruiting class of 2026, the number is even lower.

The site sources Penn State with a $59,000 average payout for players. That’s lower than Texas Tech ($81k), Washington ($72k), Ole Miss ($72k), South Carolina ($72k), and BYU ($69k).

Penn State is frequently in the final groupings for recruits who hold offers from Oregon ($232k), Georgia ($189k), Ohio State ($150k), Notre Dame ($104k), and Michigan ($91k), who all significantly outspend the Nittany Lions.

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We offer a transformational experience
 
Lazy Dave said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1943775885519466618

Some denials coming in on certain deals. 11 days in and so it begins.
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I figured this was going to court from the first announcement. The courts made it clear that it is not permissible to deny NIL compensation to college athletes. Separate topic, but I feel the revenue split will go to court as well. The first time that a swimmer complains that here she is not getting the same revenue share as a football player. It’s all destined to go to court, and it will be the wild West for many years in college sports to the point that it’s going to bankrupt itself if cooler heads do not prevail.
 
Slava Ukraini said:
Penn State athletics reached an unprecedented NIL milestone.

Penn State announced that its athletics department and the Nittany Lion Club secured a record-breaking $164.9 million in gifts from 19,863 donors in the 2024-25 academic year, which is the most successful fundraising year in its history.

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The writer was lazy and inaccurate. It's not $164.9 million in NIL. It is $164.9 in gifts including donations to the stadium, etc. There is some NIL in there but who knows how much of it is NIL.
 
LudicrousSpeedGO! said:
According to On3, Penn State is paying its players an average of $87,000. For the recruiting class of 2026, the number is even lower.

The site sources Penn State with a $59,000 average payout for players. That’s lower than Texas Tech ($81k), Washington ($72k), Ole Miss ($72k), South Carolina ($72k), and BYU ($69k).

Penn State is frequently in the final groupings for recruits who hold offers from Oregon ($232k), Georgia ($189k), Ohio State ($150k), Notre Dame ($104k), and Michigan ($91k), who all significantly outspend the Nittany Lions.

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so what actually happens now on recruiting visits? No longer coach trying to woo and convince parents to send kid there. Now its a money guy talking to an agent on bottom line number?
 
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LudicrousSpeedGO! said:
According to On3, Penn State is paying its players an average of $87,000. For the recruiting class of 2026, the number is even lower.

The site sources Penn State with a $59,000 average payout for players. That’s lower than Texas Tech ($81k), Washington ($72k), Ole Miss ($72k), South Carolina ($72k), and BYU ($69k).

Penn State is frequently in the final groupings for recruits who hold offers from Oregon ($232k), Georgia ($189k), Ohio State ($150k), Notre Dame ($104k), and Michigan ($91k), who all significantly outspend the Nittany Lions.

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The question is does PSU have less money to pay players or are they paying them less because they haven't been able to attract the top kids that demand more money.

Let's say PSU is recruiting a high 4* player and they are offering the same money as ND or OSU but the kid chooses one of those schools anyway. Then PSU goes to plan B and lands a high 3* kid instead. That wouldn't require as much money.

My guess it's some of both
 
bdroc said:
The question is does PSU have less money to pay players or are they paying them less because they haven't been able to attract the top kids that demand more money.

Let's say PSU is recruiting a high 4* player and they are offering the same money as ND or OSU but the kid chooses one of those schools anyway. Then PSU goes to plan B and lands a high 3* kid instead. That wouldn't require as much money.

My guess it's some of both
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This is an interesting point. Probably a good illustration is the NJ OT we had flip to Syracuse. He was our lowest rated recruit via the services, but Traut liked him. He probably was on a lesser deal than Kevin Brown.

In steps Syracuse. You are a higher priority for us, here's more NIL.

If your point is accurate, I would say it's reasonable to believe later in the cycle we offer more to one of the players who chose another school and flip them once the class is closer to secured.
 
Is there some kind of cap coming with NIL to try to reign this in somewhat?

Also, how does the revenue share factor into all this? I don't think all schools have the same revenue share dollars at their disposal. Nevertheless, how do we compare on that front to the big NIL spenders like OSU, Oregon, Texas, Georgia, Bama, A&M and even Michigan and ND?

With all the money we have flowing into that athletic department it seems we could get at least one of the high 4 star guys we missed out on in '26. I wonder how much we are short for some of these kids? For example, the CB I think it was from Maryland that picked ND or Wafle who I think picked OSU, what do the dollars/economics look like? How much could a 4 star CB command? Is it a million a year? Is it that much? Are we offering $750,000 and ND just offers a $1 million? That seems way too much but I really don't know. Is it that cut and dry?
 
ryoder1 said:
Is there some kind of cap coming with NIL to try to reign this in somewhat?
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Trump signed an EO, but the general gist is that it won't go anywhere but lawsuits. Until enough hats fall, it's likely going to be the wild west. You can't tell businesses what a kids value is without collective bargaining.


ryoder1 said:
Also, how does the revenue share factor into all this? I don't think all schools have the same revenue share dollars at their disposal. Nevertheless, how do we compare on that front to the big NIL spenders like OSU, Oregon, Texas, Georgia, Bama, A&M and even Michigan and ND?
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Every school has a Rev share cap of $20 million (and some change). That's for ALL sports, though many expect football to eat up the majority of that since they bring in the most revenue.

We get the same payout as our conference brethren. Currently, the Big10 TV revenue is bigger than the SECs. It's likely the donor and collective money that we trail the usual suspects at. Supposedly making the ccg and playoff run boosted our donors. Add in the unfinished business factor of being one possession away from the national championships game and we are setup very well at the moment.

ryoder1 said:
With all the money we have flowing into that athletic department it seems we could get at least one of the high 4 star guys we missed out on in '26. I wonder how much we are short for some of these kids? For example, the CB I think it was from Maryland that picked ND or Wafle who I think picked OSU, what do the dollars/economics look like? How much could a 4 star CB command? Is it a million a year? Is it that much? Are we offering $750,000 and ND just offers a $1 million? That seems way too much but I really don't know. Is it that cut and dry?
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The only #s I've seen is Wafle getting $2.4 for 2 (or 3 years) from USC (he was heading to OSU until USC up'd their offer). FWIW, Wafle rose dramatically in the rankings in the last adjustment. From top 100 to top 10 I believe (#8 currently overall).

I think right now teams are hiring GMs to navigate a lot of this. Do we have a GM? An announced one? I've not read about it if we do. We don't seem to be in the mindset of offering HS kids huge, raise the status quo money. If they come and perform, I believe we are paying well.

I think we are trying to work in between the margins. Spending without overspending. Optimizing evaluation and developing over strictly buying the highest rated kids. The best we can hope for, outside of some billionaire slinging cash, is that the teams whom were likely already buying all of these high rated kids (Bama, OSU, UGA the 3 biggest suspects IMO) pre-NIL now lose out on getting kids they normally might have who are now overpaid by the Texas Tech's and A&M's of the CFB world.
 
Lazy Dave said:
Trump signed an EO, but the general gist is that it won't go anywhere but lawsuits. Until enough hats fall, it's likely going to be the wild west. You can't tell businesses what a kids value is without collective bargaining.




Every school has a Rev share cap of $20 million (and some change). That's for ALL sports, though many expect football to eat up the majority of that since they bring in the most revenue.

We get the same payout as our conference brethren. Currently, the Big10 TV revenue is bigger than the SECs. It's likely the donor and collective money that we trail the usual suspects at. Supposedly making the ccg and playoff run boosted our donors. Add in the unfinished business factor of being one possession away from the national championships game and we are setup very well at the moment.



The only #s I've seen is Wafle getting $2.4 for 2 (or 3 years) from USC (he was heading to OSU until USC up'd their offer). FWIW, Wafle rose dramatically in the rankings in the last adjustment. From top 100 to top 10 I believe (#8 currently overall).

I think right now teams are hiring GMs to navigate a lot of this. Do we have a GM? An announced one? I've not read about it if we do. We don't seem to be in the mindset of offering HS kids huge, raise the status quo money. If they come and perform, I believe we are paying well.

I think we are trying to work in between the margins. Spending without overspending. Optimizing evaluation and developing over strictly buying the highest rated kids. The best we can hope for, outside of some billionaire slinging cash, is that the teams whom were likely already buying all of these high rated kids (Bama, OSU, UGA the 3 biggest suspects IMO) pre-NIL now lose out on getting kids they normally might have who are now overpaid by the Texas Tech's and A&M's of the CFB world.
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Analytics plus adherence to a system that works. For example, making sure that a pro-level OL and a running game always exist and never letting the WR & LB rooms deplete again. I watched pieces of the Army and Colorado games yesterday. No running game. Painful.
 
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