Penn State and Playoffs in '26

[LudicrousSpeedGO!]

My overall point is Penn State with 10 wins is by no means a lock for the playoffs because of the weak schedule. I don't see us finishing in the top 3. I think that will be OSU, IU and Oregon. They all may only have one loss with OSU just losing to Texas on the road. Your projections are essentially in line with that.

IF we lose to Michigan and UDub then we need some help such as both those teams finishing with 3 or more losses.

That is very possible. A key game would be for UDub to lose at USC. And lose at home to Indiana and at Oregon. Michigan will lose to OSU and at Oregon. I think they beat Oklahoma at home but we do need them to pick up a third loss against Indiana.

The most unfavorable scenario for us is you have everyone with one or two losses. Because of our weak schedule we will not impress the committee relative to the other teams.

OSU 10-2 losses to Texas and Indiana
Indiana 10-2 losses to Michigan and Washington
Oregon 11-1 loss to OSU
Michigan 10-2 losses to Oregon and OSU
Washington losses to Oregon and USC
USC 4 losses to Oregon, PSU, OSU and Indiana
PSU 2 losses to Michigan and Washington

We would be sixth in this scenario because our one quality win does not match the others.

Our big win is 4 loss USC
Oregon 11-1 higher than us
OSU 10-2 and only one in conference loss plus a good loss to Texas. They hand Oregon their only conf loss Better resume than us.
Indiana 10-2. Losses to the same two teams as us but they beat OSU. Better resume than us.
Michigan 10-2 beat us head to head.
Washington 10-2 beat us head to head.

I think it is very unlikely that Michigan finishes with only 2 losses. I would think it is probable for Ohio St, Indiana, and Oregon each to finish 2 or fewer losses although one might stumble.

 

[ryoder1]

I think it is very unlikely that Michigan finishes with only 2 losses. I would think it is probable for Ohio St, Indiana, and Oregon each to finish 2 or fewer losses although one might stumble.

Indiana can hand them the third loss. But the game is in Ann Arbor so no gimmie for the Hoosiers. I see them beating Okie. Of course, a lot hinges on Whittingham's coaching and how Underwood develops. My guess is they will be tough as nails on defense, physical like a typical Whittingham team, not sure about their offense, a lot of that will be Underwood and his development.