Reminiscing: I rewatched two games from last year on TV

I expect the offense to be better due to more weapons. What we really lacked last year was a guy who could be trusted to make a contested play consistently. I watched the OSU game as well. KLS made a beautiful catch in traffic - it would have been a DP if he didn't catch it. Then the next play he can't catch one right in his hands. I thought that as I saw that that it explained why he's gone. I think Hudson will be that guy this year.

I think the defense may be better. Coordinator for one, and scheme for the other. Our DBs may be the best position group on the team. Getting 5 on the field at once may be a bonus. I don't think Knowles will take a half to figure out how to stop someone, either.
I think you meant Walace, not KLS.
 
On defense it depends on how strong the D-line is. On paper we will be weaker. At DE we had Carter and DDS now it is DDS and Fisher. That is a step back. At DL we had Thomas and Durant, now Durant and Ford/Gilliam. We do have strong depth at both DE and DL so we may be close to last year at DL especially with the Knowles upgrade. You said it, DDS is not Carter and Carter was a game changer, I don't think DDS is at Carter's level.

On offense it starts and ends with Allar. He needs to go from good to great. And within that he needs to go from average/poor in big games to very good/elite in big games. There is a lot intertwined in that assessment. Allar needs to control what he can control....leadership, poise, calm under pressure both during a play and not in a play but also in the huddle and on the sidelines, smart decision making, technical mechanics like footwork while under pressure, pocket presence, throwing guys open, accuracy, dissecting coverages quickly and accurately, tucking and running at the right moments, getting down when running to avoid a big hit, etc. Receivers need to help him, crisp routes, physicality, winning 50 50 balls, reading defenses, downfield blocking, etc.

Speaking of the receivers and the tight ends. Despite losing Warren I do think our passing game is better from looking just from the perspective of those two position groups. Dinkins is excellent, voted one of the top freak athletes and Luke Reynolds will be even better. Rapp should round into form as the season progresses. On the WR front I know Harrison Wallace was a top ranked portal guy but the fact is he could not get it done in big moments against elite defenses. Between Hudson, Pena and Ross that is an upgrade vs Wallace, Evans and Clifford. We still have Clifford who will be steady and make some plays for us but the big upgrade versus last year are the young guys. We now have Denmark with another year in the program and Koby Howard. I have to believe these two guys will be a part of the passing game (possibly a key, integral part) and make plays for us. We had zero contribution from depth WRs last year.

Back to Allar, he has not shown the "it" factor in these big, tough games versus competition of equal or slightly better talent to ours (sans USC last year). He has not stepped up in winning time. I watched the end of the ND game last night and had a couple observations. The first was when ND had the ball on the possession before Allar threw the pick they had a shot of Allar on the bench. I think it was after ND picked up a first down or we had that hands to the face 15 yard penalty on Durant. He looked frustrated, almost defeated. He cannot be so emotional in those moments. Be mentally tougher, exude confidence even swagger. I think this may have contributed to the pick. He doesn't have the confidence and gravitas in these big moments. He did it vs USC so I think he has it within him to elevate his play in these moments but he needs to do it all the time.

The second observation has nothing to do with Allar but Franklin and AK. I had forgotten that on our final drive on the first play Singleton rips off an 11 or 12 yard run. The next play is the pick. What were they thinking!?? Terrible play call going to Omari Evans and horrific execution and decision making by Allar.

I have huge expectations for the team this year. I think we go 11-1 with a big White Out win vs Oregon but another disappointing loss to OSU. We make the playoffs then it comes down to whether we finally can win some of these big games. Are we mentally ready to make the plays when it counts? If we lose in Columbus we need to be mentally strong to shake that off, take care of business the rest of the regular season and then be ready to elevate our play in the playoffs. I am hopeful as the season goes on that the DLine youth gets better and better, the receivers get better, their chemistry with Allar gets better and Allar is playing his best at the end of the season.....and can make the clutch play in winning time.
You are correct about Allar needing to improve in his mental toughness and instilling confidence. Body language is very telling and sends signals to teammates and the opponents.
 
I just don't get all the consternation about inexperienced depth. It's the nature of college football that there is turnover at almost every position which leads to players with limited experience being backups, and in some cases starters.

The only positions with experienced depth on PSU's roster seem to be the OLine. And how experienced is Cousins, really. We know he's a talent, but he really doesn't seem to be as experienced as Wylie at LB, who has gone through 3+ years of practice and has game snaps as well.

Anyway, here are what I see as the most vulnerable positions, where an injury could derail the season, listed as the least depth, most risk, positions first, with less risk going down the list. Also taken into account is the fact that positions such as DE, DT, RB, CB and WR seem to be positions that the top backups regularly play often through the course of games and the season to keep starters fresh even without injurys where as the starters at positions such as QB and OL and are rarely replaced with the game still on the line.

QB. Inexperienced depth with Grunk and Smolik. QB seems like the biggest concern regarding depth. If Allar goes down with an injury a playoff berth and particularly playoff success would seem unlikely.

Safety.
An All American level player in Wheatley, but unproven players making up the 2nd starter and top backup with Lane, Mack and Belgrave-Shorter competing for the starting spot and to be the first Safety off the bench. With Toure as well competing as a 2nd year talent there is talent at the position, but an injury to Wheatley would seem to be a serious negative to the overall performance of the defense.

DE.
Only 1 returning starter (DDS) with no other DE having been in last year's DE rotation, although Fisher the likely 2nd starter is a mature player but with limited playing experience. Positive comments from the staff regarding the young DE's that will make up the remainder of the DE rotation (Harvey, Kemajou, Williams and Coleman), but an injury to either of the starters would force an inexperienced player into a starting DE role, and an injury to DDS would be a significant blow to the overall DE performance.

DT:
Similar to DE, only 1 returning DT starter (Durant) but the other projected starter (Ford) was playing a significant rotational role before his injury. Positive comments from the staff regarding the young DT's that will make up the remainder of the DT rotation (Gilliam, Wafle, Blanding and possibly White), but an injury to either of the starters, would force an inexperienced player into a starting DT role and an injury to pre-season All American Durant would likely take DT from a team strength to a position weakness.

WR.
The 3 transfer WR's all seem to be players that will likely start, although only Hudson has significant experience playing against B10 defenses. Behind those 3 Clifford is the only experienced backup and he doesn't seem to have the talent to stretch the field. There have been positive reports regarding both Denmark and Howard but they do not have the experience to be considered sure fire replacements as starting WR's in the event of injuries to the starter. And with many 3 WR sets even the projected starters are not sure bets to retain their starting roles if they do not live up to their projected playmaking roles.

LB.
With the tranfer Campbell having been a starter at NC joining Rojas and DeLuka PSU has 3 returning starting LB's for the base defense's 2 starting positions, although there will be times when the defense will play 3 LB's. The backups project to be Wylie who has competed to start in past years and is going into his 4th year in the program but has limited actual playing experienced due to injuries, Speca who was mentioned as a possible candidate to burn his redshirt last season if there are injuries and has gotten positive comments from the coaches. and Nelson who played as a backup last season and is going into his 3rd year at PSU. Additionally, there are a number of other young players (2nd year player Jackson, and true freshmen Tatsch, and Arrington) that have gotten positive comments from the coaches, and we've seen true freshmen play LB successfully in the past. An injury to one of the 3 starters would force a young player into a more promenent role but returning starter would still man the base 2 LB set.

TE
A seemingly deep position with Dinkins, Reynolds and Rappleyea all projecting to be stater capable, and the 3rd year Schlaffer as the 4th TE. Even with multiple TE sets it seems like an injury to one of the top TE's could be overcome, but losing Dinkins' blocking skills could negatively impact the running game. And an injury to Dinkins would put an inexperienced TE into the rotation for 2 TE sets.

RB.
A deep position with Singleton and Allen as co-starters, and the top 3 backups all being 2nd and 3rd year players, Wallace, Marting and Smith. But an injury to Singleton, for example, would likely put more carries per game to Allen until whoever emerges at RB3 gets more game experience and proves himself in pass protection and ball security.

CB.
A contender for deepest position. With Harris, Washington and Collins there seem sto be 3 top talented starters for 2 positions. Add in Woseley, Dixon, and Tracey (the starter at Lion) and it seems like a extremely talented and deep position, which is needed to keep the CB's fresh against teams with top passing offenses like both OSU's. It's also possible that another of the true freshmen, Joseph, Johnson and Thomas, may be ready for some snaps as they continue to practice.

Oline.
With Washington, Cousins, Shanahan, Birchmeier, Boyer and others as backups this seems like possibly the deepest position. An injury to an OT would put Donkoh back to OT, although an injury to Shelton would likely cause either Donkoh or Rucci to have to move to the left side. It's possible that the staff would rather have Washington replace Shelton. Inside, Cousins and/or Shanahan seem like very capable backups. But continuity on the OL is what makes an OL unit reach top performance so any disruption likely leads to some dropoff in performance.
Agree with those overviews. Reminder the back-up OLs last name is Williams, not Washington.
 
I just don't get all the consternation about inexperienced depth. It's the nature of college football that there is turnover at almost every position which leads to players with limited experience being backups, and in some cases starters.

The only positions with experienced depth on PSU's roster seem to be the OLine. And how experienced is Cousins, really. We know he's a talent, but he really doesn't seem to be as experienced as Wylie at LB, who has gone through 3+ years of practice and has game snaps as well.

Anyway, here are what I see as the most vulnerable positions, where an injury could derail the season, listed as the least depth, most risk, positions first, with less risk going down the list. Also taken into account is the fact that positions such as DE, DT, RB, CB and WR seem to be positions that the top backups regularly play often through the course of games and the season to keep starters fresh even without injurys where as the starters at positions such as QB and OL and are rarely replaced with the game still on the line.

QB. Inexperienced depth with Grunk and Smolik. QB seems like the biggest concern regarding depth. If Allar goes down with an injury a playoff berth and particularly playoff success would seem unlikely.

Safety.
An All American level player in Wheatley, but unproven players making up the 2nd starter and top backup with Lane, Mack and Belgrave-Shorter competing for the starting spot and to be the first Safety off the bench. With Toure as well competing as a 2nd year talent there is talent at the position, but an injury to Wheatley would seem to be a serious negative to the overall performance of the defense.

DE.
Only 1 returning starter (DDS) with no other DE having been in last year's DE rotation, although Fisher the likely 2nd starter is a mature player but with limited playing experience. Positive comments from the staff regarding the young DE's that will make up the remainder of the DE rotation (Harvey, Kemajou, Williams and Coleman), but an injury to either of the starters would force an inexperienced player into a starting DE role, and an injury to DDS would be a significant blow to the overall DE performance.

DT:
Similar to DE, only 1 returning DT starter (Durant) but the other projected starter (Ford) was playing a significant rotational role before his injury. Positive comments from the staff regarding the young DT's that will make up the remainder of the DT rotation (Gilliam, Wafle, Blanding and possibly White), but an injury to either of the starters, would force an inexperienced player into a starting DT role and an injury to pre-season All American Durant would likely take DT from a team strength to a position weakness.

WR.
The 3 transfer WR's all seem to be players that will likely start, although only Hudson has significant experience playing against B10 defenses. Behind those 3 Clifford is the only experienced backup and he doesn't seem to have the talent to stretch the field. There have been positive reports regarding both Denmark and Howard but they do not have the experience to be considered sure fire replacements as starting WR's in the event of injuries to the starter. And with many 3 WR sets even the projected starters are not sure bets to retain their starting roles if they do not live up to their projected playmaking roles.

LB.
With the tranfer Campbell having been a starter at NC joining Rojas and DeLuka PSU has 3 returning starting LB's for the base defense's 2 starting positions, although there will be times when the defense will play 3 LB's. The backups project to be Wylie who has competed to start in past years and is going into his 4th year in the program but has limited actual playing experienced due to injuries, Speca who was mentioned as a possible candidate to burn his redshirt last season if there are injuries and has gotten positive comments from the coaches. and Nelson who played as a backup last season and is going into his 3rd year at PSU. Additionally, there are a number of other young players (2nd year player Jackson, and true freshmen Tatsch, and Arrington) that have gotten positive comments from the coaches, and we've seen true freshmen play LB successfully in the past. An injury to one of the 3 starters would force a young player into a more promenent role but returning starter would still man the base 2 LB set.

TE
A seemingly deep position with Dinkins, Reynolds and Rappleyea all projecting to be stater capable, and the 3rd year Schlaffer as the 4th TE. Even with multiple TE sets it seems like an injury to one of the top TE's could be overcome, but losing Dinkins' blocking skills could negatively impact the running game. And an injury to Dinkins would put an inexperienced TE into the rotation for 2 TE sets.

RB.
A deep position with Singleton and Allen as co-starters, and the top 3 backups all being 2nd and 3rd year players, Wallace, Marting and Smith. But an injury to Singleton, for example, would likely put more carries per game to Allen until whoever emerges at RB3 gets more game experience and proves himself in pass protection and ball security.

CB.
A contender for deepest position. With Harris, Washington and Collins there seem sto be 3 top talented starters for 2 positions. Add in Woseley, Dixon, and Tracey (the starter at Lion) and it seems like a extremely talented and deep position, which is needed to keep the CB's fresh against teams with top passing offenses like both OSU's. It's also possible that another of the true freshmen, Joseph, Johnson and Thomas, may be ready for some snaps as they continue to practice.

Oline.
With Washington, Cousins, Shanahan, Birchmeier, Boyer and others as backups this seems like possibly the deepest position. An injury to an OT would put Donkoh back to OT, although an injury to Shelton would likely cause either Donkoh or Rucci to have to move to the left side. It's possible that the staff would rather have Washington replace Shelton. Inside, Cousins and/or Shanahan seem like very capable backups. But continuity on the OL is what makes an OL unit reach top performance so any disruption likely leads to some dropoff in performance.
Cousins played in all 16 games last year. We know he's good enough to have passed Williams and Birchmeier on the depth chart.
 
Agree with almost everything you said.

I'm more concerned about the "IT" factor with Allar. I think the coaches can teach things like footwork but confidence and instinct are part of the way players are built. McSorley didn't have the size or arm strength that Allar has but he had no fear.

There are a lot of coaching decisions we can talk about but I'll mention two. One was Kotelnicki who had a creative game plan to keep opposing defenses off balance. Then he went conservative vs OSU. Who can forget 1st and goal from the 3 when he called 3 straight runs up the middle? Another was when PSU led SMU 14-0 and PSU had the ball 4th and 1 on our own 19 yard line. For some reason Franklin decided to go for it and we were stopped. Why would any coach risk a 14-0 lead and lost momentum by going for it inside your own 20? It worked out because Deluca got an INT but that's not the point. What a dumb decision and there have been several others like that.
I didn't even address the coaching. AK was not at his best vs OSU. That goal line sequence was brutal as you point out. Then vs the ND the overall shift away from the run capped off by the horrific pass call to Evans on our most important drive of the season.

Franklin is not good in these big games as evidenced by his record. He has to get this monkey off his back and have the team mentally prepared.

I like the trade up for Knowles with Allen out. I think we will be awake from the start versus Allen's defense last season. I also think schematic wise we will also be better.
 
I agree with most of your hierarchy except I would put DE 2nd after QB and probably DT third. Mack has played a lot at safety. Lane played last year. Rember we lost KJ Winston last year and we were still solid at safety. Guys like Lane got good experience.

I think the DLine is so critical to the defense's success. Stuffing the run puts the offense behind schedule in third and longs. Getting penetration makes the LBs job easier. Getting QB pressure is huge and helps the back 5 plus leads to turnovers. We know teams that can control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball usually win. If we lose Durant or DDS that can be a back breaker and the difference in a big game.
We were solid at Safety last season after losing Winston because Wheatley, the turnover king 2 years running, was the 3rd Safety. I guess I'm not as sold on Mack as you are as he didn't do too much at Bama, and Lane may be in the dog house for a while due to his legal issues. On the up side the reports on Belgrave-Shorter are positive, and although not has been said lately on Toure he did get some positive comments in his true freshman season last year.

I agree with you on the importance of the Dline, although I believe there is big numbers of talented young players at both DE and DT. The big risk to me there is losing either of the leaders at those positions, Durant or DDS, similar to Wheatley at Safety. So I look at those three positions pretty much as a tie but I had to pick an order to list them.....
 
Don't underestimate the impact J Reed had at Safety last year.
Never said that. But Reed could only be one of the two Safey;s needed, so once Winston was out Wheatley pretty much saved the back end of the defense last season. And Wheatley was eligible for the draft after last season, which is why having him back as a leader is so important given the lack of starting and overall experience of the remainder of the PSU Safety's.
 
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