Reminiscing: I rewatched two games from last year on TV

bdroc

Well-known member
The first was SMU. Our offense looked inept for much of the first half. We were leading 14-0 because of two interceptions. Then with the score 14-0 Franklin decides to go for it on 4th and 1 from our own 19 yard line. What a horrible call! SMU could have got back in the game if not for Deluca's interception. PSU won 38-10 but it wasn't because of the offense. It was because Jennings threw 3 picks (2 pick 6s) and missed a 4th down throw in the end zone.

The second was OSU. OSU dominated after PSU took an early 10-0 lead. We were nearly down 21-10 except for OSU's fumble through the end zone. PSU's offense was once again inept. IIRC the only completed passes late in the first half were to Singleton. Then Wallace made a great catch for 21 yds to get us to the OSU 3 yd line only to have another pass stripped from his hands in the end zone. Ugh! Somehow we were still in the game and a 33 yd completion to Warren got us another 1st and goal at the 3 yd line. Kotelnicki's creating offense called for 3 straight runs up the middle for 2 yds.. On 4th and goal Allar threw into traffic for an INT. It seems that we play OSU close every year but they make one or two big plays when it matters. PSU makes a couple of bad plays when it matters. Is that a talent gap or is it just confidence?

Two takeaways:

1) How good is our offense? We have a lot of guys back but we really struggled at times last year and we lost Warren. We're counting on Allar to make a big step forward and for our new WRs to be a lot better than last year.

2) What kind of a pass rush are we going to have? Carter was extremely disruptive in those two games but he's gone. We're expecting DDS to pick up where Carter left off but he didn't get the double teams like Carter did last year. He has to make a big step forward for PSU to be as strong defensively.
 
I think it all comes down to Allar and the new WRs. We will win a lot of games with last year's game plan (run, passes to TE/RB). To be a complete team, we'll need to have more WR involvement. If for no other reason, keep the defenses honest so they don't stack the box, especially against good teams like OR/OH.

We'll need to be patient. We can make the playoffs by winning every game in which we are favored by several points (everyone except OR and OH). That would leave us at 10-2. But in playoffs, a team just needss to get hot as long as they have the physical talent. We have that talent. But it may take several games to get the long passing game going. I suspect we'll pass a lot the first three games.

I don't think we have the defensive talent we had last year but we have a better DC.
 
The first was SMU. Our offense looked inept for much of the first half. We were leading 14-0 because of two interceptions. Then with the score 14-0 Franklin decides to go for it on 4th and 1 from our own 19 yard line. What a horrible call! SMU could have got back in the game if not for Deluca's interception. PSU won 38-10 but it wasn't because of the offense. It was because Jennings threw 3 picks (2 pick 6s) and missed a 4th down throw in the end zone.

The second was OSU. OSU dominated after PSU took an early 10-0 lead. We were nearly down 21-10 except for OSU's fumble through the end zone. PSU's offense was once again inept. IIRC the only completed passes late in the first half were to Singleton. Then Wallace made a great catch for 21 yds to get us to the OSU 3 yd line only to have another pass stripped from his hands in the end zone. Ugh! Somehow we were still in the game and a 33 yd completion to Warren got us another 1st and goal at the 3 yd line. Kotelnicki's creating offense called for 3 straight runs up the middle for 2 yds.. On 4th and goal Allar threw into traffic for an INT. It seems that we play OSU close every year but they make one or two big plays when it matters. PSU makes a couple of bad plays when it matters. Is that a talent gap or is it just confidence?

Two takeaways:

1) How good is our offense? We have a lot of guys back but we really struggled at times last year and we lost Warren. We're counting on Allar to make a big step forward and for our new WRs to be a lot better than last year.

2) What kind of a pass rush are we going to have? Carter was extremely disruptive in those two games but he's gone. We're expecting DDS to pick up where Carter left off but he didn't get the double teams like Carter did last year. He has to make a big step forward for PSU to be as strong defensively.
Legitimate concerns. Play calling has to better I goal line situations against the best teams and Fisher or opposite DE will have to come up big if DDS gets doubleteamed.
 
I think it all comes down to Allar and the new WRs. We will win a lot of games with last year's game plan (run, passes to TE/RB). To be a complete team, we'll need to have more WR involvement. If for no other reason, keep the defenses honest so they don't stack the box, especially against good teams like OR/OH.

We'll need to be patient. We can make the playoffs by winning every game in which we are favored by several points (everyone except OR and OH). That would leave us at 10-2. But in playoffs, a team just needss to get hot as long as they have the physical talent. We have that talent. But it may take several games to get the long passing game going. I suspect we'll pass a lot the first three games.

I don't think we have the defensive talent we had last year but we have a better DC.
I agree that the defense will be slightly worse than last year primarily because of losing Carter and Reed. The hope is that we'll be much better on offense even without Warren. Like you said a lot depends on Allar improving and the new WRs making more of an impact.

The OL & RBs + Allar with no improvement should be able to get us 9 wins. I say 9 because last year they got us 10 wins but USC and Minny were by the skin of our teeth. In order to win 10 or 11 games Allar and the WRs have to take a bigger step forward than the loss of Warren will hurt us. I think they will but it's not a sure thing.

One thing that I noticed in these two games is that Allar had receivers open if he would have pulled the trigger more quickly. I don't know if that instinct will improve with another year of experience.
 
The first was SMU. Our offense looked inept for much of the first half. We were leading 14-0 because of two interceptions. Then with the score 14-0 Franklin decides to go for it on 4th and 1 from our own 19 yard line. What a horrible call! SMU could have got back in the game if not for Deluca's interception. PSU won 38-10 but it wasn't because of the offense. It was because Jennings threw 3 picks (2 pick 6s) and missed a 4th down throw in the end zone.

The second was OSU. OSU dominated after PSU took an early 10-0 lead. We were nearly down 21-10 except for OSU's fumble through the end zone. PSU's offense was once again inept. IIRC the only completed passes late in the first half were to Singleton. Then Wallace made a great catch for 21 yds to get us to the OSU 3 yd line only to have another pass stripped from his hands in the end zone. Ugh! Somehow we were still in the game and a 33 yd completion to Warren got us another 1st and goal at the 3 yd line. Kotelnicki's creating offense called for 3 straight runs up the middle for 2 yds.. On 4th and goal Allar threw into traffic for an INT. It seems that we play OSU close every year but they make one or two big plays when it matters. PSU makes a couple of bad plays when it matters. Is that a talent gap or is it just confidence?

Two takeaways:

1) How good is our offense? We have a lot of guys back but we really struggled at times last year and we lost Warren. We're counting on Allar to make a big step forward and for our new WRs to be a lot better than last year.

2) What kind of a pass rush are we going to have? Carter was extremely disruptive in those two games but he's gone. We're expecting DDS to pick up where Carter left off but he didn't get the double teams like Carter did last year. He has to make a big step forward for PSU to be as strong defensively.
Given many “high end” players returning, all indications point to an offensive “ceiling” of the best we’ve had since 94’ . Defensively, we should still start top 10-15, despite loss of Carter. By November, I expect We will be pushing top 5 as new Freshman and Sophomore players get more comfortable and begin to gel.
 
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I agree that the defense will be slightly worse than last year primarily because of losing Carter and Reed. The hope is that we'll be much better on offense even without Warren. Like you said a lot depends on Allar improving and the new WRs making more of an impact.

The OL & RBs + Allar with no improvement should be able to get us 9 wins. I say 9 because last year they got us 10 wins but USC and Minny were by the skin of our teeth. In order to win 10 or 11 games Allar and the WRs have to take a bigger step forward than the loss of Warren will hurt us. I think they will but it's not a sure thing.

One thing that I noticed in these two games is that Allar had receivers open if he would have pulled the trigger more quickly. I don't know if that instinct will improve with another year of experience.
100% agree but "pulling the trigger more quickly" is a measure of confidence that the WR and QB are on the same page. The QB needs to make his throw as the WR goes into the break and where the defender is positioned. The QB and WR need to be able to anticipate where the ball will be placed a second after it is released. Now, is that Allar? Or is that inconsistent WR routes? Without knowing the play, WR options, defenses deployed on the play, and gamefilm, we don't know.
 
The first was SMU. Our offense looked inept for much of the first half. We were leading 14-0 because of two interceptions. Then with the score 14-0 Franklin decides to go for it on 4th and 1 from our own 19 yard line. What a horrible call! SMU could have got back in the game if not for Deluca's interception. PSU won 38-10 but it wasn't because of the offense. It was because Jennings threw 3 picks (2 pick 6s) and missed a 4th down throw in the end zone.

The second was OSU. OSU dominated after PSU took an early 10-0 lead. We were nearly down 21-10 except for OSU's fumble through the end zone. PSU's offense was once again inept. IIRC the only completed passes late in the first half were to Singleton. Then Wallace made a great catch for 21 yds to get us to the OSU 3 yd line only to have another pass stripped from his hands in the end zone. Ugh! Somehow we were still in the game and a 33 yd completion to Warren got us another 1st and goal at the 3 yd line. Kotelnicki's creating offense called for 3 straight runs up the middle for 2 yds.. On 4th and goal Allar threw into traffic for an INT. It seems that we play OSU close every year but they make one or two big plays when it matters. PSU makes a couple of bad plays when it matters. Is that a talent gap or is it just confidence?

Two takeaways:

1) How good is our offense? We have a lot of guys back but we really struggled at times last year and we lost Warren. We're counting on Allar to make a big step forward and for our new WRs to be a lot better than last year.

2) What kind of a pass rush are we going to have? Carter was extremely disruptive in those two games but he's gone. We're expecting DDS to pick up where Carter left off but he didn't get the double teams like Carter did last year. He has to make a big step forward for PSU to be as strong defensively.
If Allar has not improved then we still could make the playoffs but will certainly lose before the semis unless we get really lucky.

That means we can ride this offensive line, our RBs and TEs to 10 wins or possibly just 9 wins (9 wins we don't make the playoffs). The Iowa game is this year's USC. Difference is they don't have the talent of last year's USC but they could still beat us. Even with Allar playing like last year I think we can go 1-1 vs Oregon and Iowa. OSU is of course a loss.

On defense, if DDS and Durant for that matter don't dominate and Fisher and Ford don't do much along with the younger guys then that will be a problem. Combine that with Allar not improving and we most likely have 3 losses. Oregon probably beats us and then either Iowa or someone else.

Can all that happen? Yes. Will it? I don't think so. That really assumes the season is a big disappointment.
 
I'm anxious about the LB play. Like any good LB corps, intuition, shedding blocks, and quickness are key. With that said, I'm hoping Rojas gets to the next level. If you look at each of the first TDs by USC, Minny, and BSU in 2024 (via YouTube), then you might see what I mean. Or maybe you'll see it another way.
 
I'm anxious about the LB play. Like any good LB corps, intuition, shedding blocks, and quickness are key. With that said, I'm hoping Rojas gets to the next level. If you look at each of the first TDs by USC, Minny, and BSU in 2024 (via YouTube), then you might see what I mean. Or maybe you'll see it another way.
One question is how often we play with 3 LBs vs 5 DBs. It's a pick your poison situation. If we play 3 LBs the only depth is unproved (Wylie, Speca). If we play 5 DBs Harris, Washington, & Weatley are proven and experienced but Tracy & Mack. are less experienced. Then we'll have to rely on young kids like Collins, Dinkins, and Bellgrave-Shorter as backup.
 
One question is how often we play with 3 LBs vs 5 DBs. It's a pick your poison situation. If we play 3 LBs the only depth is unproved (Wylie, Speca). If we play 5 DBs Harris, Washington, & Weatley are proven and experienced but Tracy & Mack. are less experienced. Then we'll have to rely on young kids like Collins, Dinkins, and Bellgrave-Shorter as backup.
Yep. Knowles played a person as a hybrid Safety/Linebacker. It was labeled a 4-2-5 but it is more like a 4-2.5-4.5. I think he refers to it as a "Middle Safety". Here is what Google's AI says:

Jim Knowles' defense is a complex, hybrid system known for its adaptability, using elements of both 4-2-5 and three-high safety looks. Key features include a versatile Middle Safety (MS), a hybrid "Leo" or "Jack" pass rusher, and a focus on man-coverage while disguising pressure with the blitz. The scheme aims to be built for speed and tempo, allowing players to make fast, instinctive decisions and create matchup advantages.
The way I think of it is this. The Offense commits to a personnel package by running people on and off the field. The D sees that they have a pass-oriented or run-oriented personnel set and calls their personnel package that runs on/off the field. Now you've got 11 on 11 committed. Suddenly, Singleton goes into motion and moves into a slot position so a two WR, 1 TE, 1 RB formation becomes a 3 WR, 1 TE formation. When the Middle Safety sees them break the huddle, he moves up, seeing that Singleton at RB is a threat to run XX% of the time he's in the backfield. But when he goes out to the slot, the team passes 80% of the time, 20% to him. So the middle safety takes a step back and feathers out to Singleton's split formation more in protecting against the pass than the run. The point being that he is more of an OLB when Singleton is in the backfield but becomes a Safety if he goes into motion into the slot or WR area.

The challenge is that all 11 players need to recognize and adjust between the huddle and the snap. That leads to potential coverage confusion and broken plays.
 
Ugh! Somehow we were still in the game and a 33 yd completion to Warren got us another 1st and goal at the 3 yd line. Kotelnicki's creating offense called for 3 straight runs up the middle for 2 yds.. On 4th and goal Allar threw into traffic for an INT.

Warren took a a Wildcat handoff for 30+ yards to get us to 1st and goal. (The 30+ yard catch was earlier in the drive) 4th and goal was incomplete, not an INT.

Oregon in their first game vs OSU was really the only team to move the ball on this Buckeye defense. I know Michigan upset them, but that was a rock fight. I think Michigan had 230 yards all game, if that.

I do agree that we have to move the ball on them this year. Their defense can't be as good this year. They lost a ton of multi year starters and their DC. If we can't move the ball on them, when are we ever gonna be able to?
 
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The first was SMU. Our offense looked inept for much of the first half. We were leading 14-0 because of two interceptions. Then with the score 14-0 Franklin decides to go for it on 4th and 1 from our own 19 yard line. What a horrible call! SMU could have got back in the game if not for Deluca's interception. PSU won 38-10 but it wasn't because of the offense. It was because Jennings threw 3 picks (2 pick 6s) and missed a 4th down throw in the end zone.

The second was OSU. OSU dominated after PSU took an early 10-0 lead. We were nearly down 21-10 except for OSU's fumble through the end zone. PSU's offense was once again inept. IIRC the only completed passes late in the first half were to Singleton. Then Wallace made a great catch for 21 yds to get us to the OSU 3 yd line only to have another pass stripped from his hands in the end zone. Ugh! Somehow we were still in the game and a 33 yd completion to Warren got us another 1st and goal at the 3 yd line. Kotelnicki's creating offense called for 3 straight runs up the middle for 2 yds.. On 4th and goal Allar threw into traffic for an INT. It seems that we play OSU close every year but they make one or two big plays when it matters. PSU makes a couple of bad plays when it matters. Is that a talent gap or is it just confidence?

Two takeaways:

1) How good is our offense? We have a lot of guys back but we really struggled at times last year and we lost Warren. We're counting on Allar to make a big step forward and for our new WRs to be a lot better than last year.

2) What kind of a pass rush are we going to have? Carter was extremely disruptive in those two games but he's gone. We're expecting DDS to pick up where Carter left off but he didn't get the double teams like Carter did last year. He has to make a big step forward for PSU to be as strong defensively.
New year, new team. It’s hard to predict performance based on the previous year. I get the skepticism regarding PSU’s ability to win big games, but this year’s team is not last year’s team.
 
New year, new team. It’s hard to predict performance based on the previous year. I get the skepticism regarding PSU’s ability to win big games, but this year’s team is not last year’s team.
Yes it's a new year and a lot of things can happen. Maybe we don't win close games like we did vs USC & Minny. Maybe we finally breakthrough vs OSU & Oregon.

My best attempt at an objective analysis says the defense will be a bit weaker than last year. DDS could break out but I doubt he'll be as good as Carter was. Now add how thin we are at DT. I think it will be a good defense but probably not quite as good as last year.

That means we need the offense to be better than last year if we want to win a BiG title and get to the playoff finals. I think it all comes down to Allar. KLS had a good year at Auburn. On3 rated Harrison Wallace pretty high in the transfer portal. If the combination of Pena, Hudson, & Ross can't produce in big games I'm going to blame Allar and the offensive scheme.

I have hope but also concern. Allar's last pass vs ND was intercepted. His last pass vs Oregon was intercepted. His last pass vs OSU was incomplete. Allar is a very good QB but in order to be elite he has to be able to put the team on his back at key moments. I hoped he would be able to do that at an experienced junior. The question is he can finally get it done as a senior.
 
Yes it's a new year and a lot of things can happen. Maybe we don't win close games like we did vs USC & Minny. Maybe we finally breakthrough vs OSU & Oregon.

My best attempt at an objective analysis says the defense will be a bit weaker than last year. DDS could break out but I doubt he'll be as good as Carter was. Now add how thin we are at DT. I think it will be a good defense but probably not quite as good as last year.

That means we need the offense to be better than last year if we want to win a BiG title and get to the playoff finals. I think it all comes down to Allar. KLS had a good year at Auburn. On3 rated Harrison Wallace pretty high in the transfer portal. If the combination of Pena, Hudson, & Ross can't produce in big games I'm going to blame Allar and the offensive scheme.

I have hope but also concern. Allar's last pass vs ND was intercepted. His last pass vs Oregon was intercepted. His last pass vs OSU was incomplete. Allar is a very good QB but in order to be elite he has to be able to put the team on his back at key moments. I hoped he would be able to do that at an experienced junior. The question is he can finally get it done as a senior.
He did it against USC. He can do it. But some other guys need to step up as well. Get open, make a contested catch, go up and get the ball.
 
He did it against USC. He can do it. But some other guys need to step up as well. Get open, make a contested catch, go up and get the ball.
I agree but we've gone too many WRs for me to conclude that they are the only problem. If Hudson, Ross, Pena, Howard, and Denmark struggle it becomes pretty obvious the problem is Allar or the system. Let's hope that won't be the case.
 
I agree but we've gone too many WRs for me to conclude that they are the only problem. If Hudson, Ross, Pena, Howard, and Denmark struggle it becomes pretty obvious the problem is Allar or the system. Let's hope that won't be the case.
On defense it depends on how strong the D-line is. On paper we will be weaker. At DE we had Carter and DDS now it is DDS and Fisher. That is a step back. At DL we had Thomas and Durant, now Durant and Ford/Gilliam. We do have strong depth at both DE and DL so we may be close to last year at DL especially with the Knowles upgrade. You said it, DDS is not Carter and Carter was a game changer, I don't think DDS is at Carter's level.

On offense it starts and ends with Allar. He needs to go from good to great. And within that he needs to go from average/poor in big games to very good/elite in big games. There is a lot intertwined in that assessment. Allar needs to control what he can control....leadership, poise, calm under pressure both during a play and not in a play but also in the huddle and on the sidelines, smart decision making, technical mechanics like footwork while under pressure, pocket presence, throwing guys open, accuracy, dissecting coverages quickly and accurately, tucking and running at the right moments, getting down when running to avoid a big hit, etc. Receivers need to help him, crisp routes, physicality, winning 50 50 balls, reading defenses, downfield blocking, etc.

Speaking of the receivers and the tight ends. Despite losing Warren I do think our passing game is better from looking just from the perspective of those two position groups. Dinkins is excellent, voted one of the top freak athletes and Luke Reynolds will be even better. Rapp should round into form as the season progresses. On the WR front I know Harrison Wallace was a top ranked portal guy but the fact is he could not get it done in big moments against elite defenses. Between Hudson, Pena and Ross that is an upgrade vs Wallace, Evans and Clifford. We still have Clifford who will be steady and make some plays for us but the big upgrade versus last year are the young guys. We now have Denmark with another year in the program and Koby Howard. I have to believe these two guys will be a part of the passing game (possibly a key, integral part) and make plays for us. We had zero contribution from depth WRs last year.

Back to Allar, he has not shown the "it" factor in these big, tough games versus competition of equal or slightly better talent to ours (sans USC last year). He has not stepped up in winning time. I watched the end of the ND game last night and had a couple observations. The first was when ND had the ball on the possession before Allar threw the pick they had a shot of Allar on the bench. I think it was after ND picked up a first down or we had that hands to the face 15 yard penalty on Durant. He looked frustrated, almost defeated. He cannot be so emotional in those moments. Be mentally tougher, exude confidence even swagger. I think this may have contributed to the pick. He doesn't have the confidence and gravitas in these big moments. He did it vs USC so I think he has it within him to elevate his play in these moments but he needs to do it all the time.

The second observation has nothing to do with Allar but Franklin and AK. I had forgotten that on our final drive on the first play Singleton rips off an 11 or 12 yard run. The next play is the pick. What were they thinking!?? Terrible play call going to Omari Evans and horrific execution and decision making by Allar.

I have huge expectations for the team this year. I think we go 11-1 with a big White Out win vs Oregon but another disappointing loss to OSU. We make the playoffs then it comes down to whether we finally can win some of these big games. Are we mentally ready to make the plays when it counts? If we lose in Columbus we need to be mentally strong to shake that off, take care of business the rest of the regular season and then be ready to elevate our play in the playoffs. I am hopeful as the season goes on that the DLine youth gets better and better, the receivers get better, their chemistry with Allar gets better and Allar is playing his best at the end of the season.....and can make the clutch play in winning time.
 
I just don't get all the consternation about inexperienced depth. It's the nature of college football that there is turnover at almost every position which leads to players with limited experience being backups, and in some cases starters.

The only positions with experienced depth on PSU's roster seem to be the OLine. And how experienced is Cousins, really. We know he's a talent, but he really doesn't seem to be as experienced as Wylie at LB, who has gone through 3+ years of practice and has game snaps as well.

Anyway, here are what I see as the most vulnerable positions, where an injury could derail the season, listed as the least depth, most risk, positions first, with less risk going down the list. Also taken into account is the fact that positions such as DE, DT, RB, CB and WR seem to be positions that the top backups regularly play often through the course of games and the season to keep starters fresh even without injurys where as the starters at positions such as QB and OL and are rarely replaced with the game still on the line.

QB. Inexperienced depth with Grunk and Smolik. QB seems like the biggest concern regarding depth. If Allar goes down with an injury a playoff berth and particularly playoff success would seem unlikely.

Safety.
An All American level player in Wheatley, but unproven players making up the 2nd starter and top backup with Lane, Mack and Belgrave-Shorter competing for the starting spot and to be the first Safety off the bench. With Toure as well competing as a 2nd year talent there is talent at the position, but an injury to Wheatley the years reigning turnover king, would seem to be a serious negative to the overall performance of the defense.

DE.
Only 1 returning starter (DDS) with no other DE having been in last year's DE rotation, although Fisher the likely 2nd starter is a mature player but with limited playing experience. Positive comments from the staff regarding the young DE's that will make up the remainder of the DE rotation (Harvey, Kemajou, Williams and Coleman), but an injury to either of the starters would force an inexperienced player into a starting DE role, and an injury to DDS would be a significant blow to the overall DE performance.

DT:
Similar to DE, only 1 returning DT starter (Durant) but the other projected starter (Ford) was playing a significant rotational role before his injury. Positive comments from the staff regarding the young DT's that will make up the remainder of the DT rotation (Gilliam, Wafle, Blanding and possibly White), but an injury to either of the starters, would force an inexperienced player into a starting DT role and an injury to pre-season All American Durant would likely take DT from a team strength to a position weakness.

WR.
The 3 transfer WR's all seem to be players that will likely start, although only Hudson has significant experience playing against B10 defenses. Behind those 3 Clifford is the only experienced backup and he doesn't seem to have the talent to stretch the field. There have been positive reports regarding both Denmark and Howard but they do not have the experience to be considered sure fire replacements as starting WR's in the event of injuries to the starter. And with many 3 WR sets even the projected starters are not sure bets to retain their starting roles if they do not live up to their projected playmaking roles.

LB.
With the tranfer Campbell having been a starter at NC joining Rojas and DeLuka PSU has 3 returning starting LB's for the base defense's 2 starting positions, although there will be times when the defense will play 3 LB's. The backups project to be Wylie who has competed to start in past years and is going into his 4th year in the program but has limited actual playing experienced due to injuries, Speca who was mentioned as a possible candidate to burn his redshirt last season if there are injuries and has gotten positive comments from the coaches. and Nelson who played as a backup last season and is going into his 3rd year at PSU. Additionally, there are a number of other young players (2nd year player Jackson, and true freshmen Tatsch, and Arrington) that have gotten positive comments from the coaches, and we've seen true freshmen play LB successfully in the past. An injury to one of the 3 starters would force a young player into a more promenent role but returning starter would still man the base 2 LB set.

TE
A seemingly deep position with Dinkins, Reynolds and Rappleyea all projecting to be stater capable, and the 3rd year Schlaffer as the 4th TE. Even with multiple TE sets it seems like an injury to one of the top TE's could be overcome, but losing Dinkins' blocking skills could negatively impact the running game. And an injury to Dinkins would put an inexperienced TE into the rotation for 2 TE sets.

RB.
A deep position with Singleton and Allen as co-starters, and the top 3 backups all being 2nd and 3rd year players, Wallace, Marting and Smith. But an injury to Singleton, for example, would likely put more carries per game to Allen until whoever emerges at RB3 gets more game experience and proves himself in pass protection and ball security.

CB.
A contender for deepest position. With Harris, Washington and Collins there seem sto be 3 top talented starters for 2 positions. Add in Woseley, Dixon, and Tracey (the starter at Lion) and it seems like a extremely talented and deep position, which is needed to keep the CB's fresh against teams with top passing offenses like both OSU's. It's also possible that another of the true freshmen, Joseph, Johnson and Thomas, may be ready for some snaps as they continue to practice and develop.

Oline.
With Williams, Cousins, Shanahan, Birchmeier, Boyer and others as backups this seems like possibly the deepest position. An injury to an OT would put Donkoh back to OT, although an injury to Shelton would likely cause either Donkoh or Rucci to have to move to the left side. It's possible that the staff would rather have Williams replace Shelton. Inside, Cousins and/or Shanahan seem like very capable backups. But continuity on the OL is what makes an OL unit reach top performance so any disruption likely leads to some dropoff in performance.
 
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I just don't get all the consternation about inexperienced depth. It's the nature of college football that there is turnover at almost every position which leads to players with limited experience being backups, and in some cases starters.

The only positions with experienced depth on PSU's roster seem to be the OLine. And how experienced is Cousins, really. We know he's a talent, but he really doesn't seem to be as experienced as Wylie at LB, who has gone through 3+ years of practice and has game snaps as well.

Anyway, here are what I see as the most vulnerable positions, where an injury could derail the season, listed as the least depth, most risk, positions first, with less risk going down the list. Also taken into account is the fact that positions such as DE, DT, RB, CB and WR seem to be positions that the top backups regularly play often through the course of games and the season to keep starters fresh even without injurys where as the starters at positions such as QB and OL and are rarely replaced with the game still on the line.

QB. Inexperienced depth with Grunk and Smolik. QB seems like the biggest concern regarding depth. If Allar goes down with an injury a playoff berth and particularly playoff success would seem unlikely.

Safety.
An All American level player in Wheatley, but unproven players making up the 2nd starter and top backup with Lane, Mack and Belgrave-Shorter competing for the starting spot and to be the first Safety off the bench. With Toure as well competing as a 2nd year talent there is talent at the position, but an injury to Wheatley would seem to be a serious negative to the overall performance of the defense.

DE.
Only 1 returning starter (DDS) with no other DE having been in last year's DE rotation, although Fisher the likely 2nd starter is a mature player but with limited playing experience. Positive comments from the staff regarding the young DE's that will make up the remainder of the DE rotation (Harvey, Kemajou, Williams and Coleman), but an injury to either of the starters would force an inexperienced player into a starting DE role, and an injury to DDS would be a significant blow to the overall DE performance.

DT:
Similar to DE, only 1 returning DT starter (Durant) but the other projected starter (Ford) was playing a significant rotational role before his injury. Positive comments from the staff regarding the young DT's that will make up the remainder of the DT rotation (Gilliam, Wafle, Blanding and possibly White), but an injury to either of the starters, would force an inexperienced player into a starting DT role and an injury to pre-season All American Durant would likely take DT from a team strength to a position weakness.

WR.
The 3 transfer WR's all seem to be players that will likely start, although only Hudson has significant experience playing against B10 defenses. Behind those 3 Clifford is the only experienced backup and he doesn't seem to have the talent to stretch the field. There have been positive reports regarding both Denmark and Howard but they do not have the experience to be considered sure fire replacements as starting WR's in the event of injuries to the starter. And with many 3 WR sets even the projected starters are not sure bets to retain their starting roles if they do not live up to their projected playmaking roles.

LB.
With the tranfer Campbell having been a starter at NC joining Rojas and DeLuka PSU has 3 returning starting LB's for the base defense's 2 starting positions, although there will be times when the defense will play 3 LB's. The backups project to be Wylie who has competed to start in past years and is going into his 4th year in the program but has limited actual playing experienced due to injuries, Speca who was mentioned as a possible candidate to burn his redshirt last season if there are injuries and has gotten positive comments from the coaches. and Nelson who played as a backup last season and is going into his 3rd year at PSU. Additionally, there are a number of other young players (2nd year player Jackson, and true freshmen Tatsch, and Arrington) that have gotten positive comments from the coaches, and we've seen true freshmen play LB successfully in the past. An injury to one of the 3 starters would force a young player into a more promenent role but returning starter would still man the base 2 LB set.

TE
A seemingly deep position with Dinkins, Reynolds and Rappleyea all projecting to be stater capable, and the 3rd year Schlaffer as the 4th TE. Even with multiple TE sets it seems like an injury to one of the top TE's could be overcome, but losing Dinkins' blocking skills could negatively impact the running game. And an injury to Dinkins would put an inexperienced TE into the rotation for 2 TE sets.

RB.
A deep position with Singleton and Allen as co-starters, and the top 3 backups all being 2nd and 3rd year players, Wallace, Marting and Smith. But an injury to Singleton, for example, would likely put more carries per game to Allen until whoever emerges at RB3 gets more game experience and proves himself in pass protection and ball security.

CB.
A contender for deepest position. With Harris, Washington and Collins there seem sto be 3 top talented starters for 2 positions. Add in Woseley, Dixon, and Tracey (the starter at Lion) and it seems like a extremely talented and deep position, which is needed to keep the CB's fresh against teams with top passing offenses like both OSU's. It's also possible that another of the true freshmen, Joseph, Johnson and Thomas, may be ready for some snaps as they continue to practice.

Oline.
With Washington, Cousins, Shanahan, Birchmeier, Boyer and others as backups this seems like possibly the deepest position. An injury to an OT would put Donkoh back to OT, although an injury to Shelton would likely cause either Donkoh or Rucci to have to move to the left side. It's possible that the staff would rather have Washington replace Shelton. Inside, Cousins and/or Shanahan seem like very capable backups. But continuity on the OL is what makes an OL unit reach top performance so any disruption likely leads to some dropoff in performance.
I agree with most of your hierarchy except I would put DE 2nd after QB and probably DT third. Mack has played a lot at safety. Lane played last year. Rember we lost KJ Winston last year and we were still solid at safety. Guys like Lane got good experience.

I think the DLine is so critical to the defense's success. Stuffing the run puts the offense behind schedule in third and longs. Getting penetration makes the LBs job easier. Getting QB pressure is huge and helps the back 5 plus leads to turnovers. We know teams that can control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball usually win. If we lose Durant or DDS that can be a back breaker and the difference in a big game.
 
The first was SMU. Our offense looked inept for much of the first half. We were leading 14-0 because of two interceptions. Then with the score 14-0 Franklin decides to go for it on 4th and 1 from our own 19 yard line. What a horrible call! SMU could have got back in the game if not for Deluca's interception. PSU won 38-10 but it wasn't because of the offense. It was because Jennings threw 3 picks (2 pick 6s) and missed a 4th down throw in the end zone.

The second was OSU. OSU dominated after PSU took an early 10-0 lead. We were nearly down 21-10 except for OSU's fumble through the end zone. PSU's offense was once again inept. IIRC the only completed passes late in the first half were to Singleton. Then Wallace made a great catch for 21 yds to get us to the OSU 3 yd line only to have another pass stripped from his hands in the end zone. Ugh! Somehow we were still in the game and a 33 yd completion to Warren got us another 1st and goal at the 3 yd line. Kotelnicki's creating offense called for 3 straight runs up the middle for 2 yds.. On 4th and goal Allar threw into traffic for an INT. It seems that we play OSU close every year but they make one or two big plays when it matters. PSU makes a couple of bad plays when it matters. Is that a talent gap or is it just confidence?

Two takeaways:

1) How good is our offense? We have a lot of guys back but we really struggled at times last year and we lost Warren. We're counting on Allar to make a big step forward and for our new WRs to be a lot better than last year.

2) What kind of a pass rush are we going to have? Carter was extremely disruptive in those two games but he's gone. We're expecting DDS to pick up where Carter left off but he didn't get the double teams like Carter did last year. He has to make a big step forward for PSU to be as strong defensively.
I expect the offense to be better due to more weapons. What we really lacked last year was a guy who could be trusted to make a contested play consistently. I watched the OSU game as well. KLS made a beautiful catch in traffic - it would have been a DP if he didn't catch it. Then the next play he can't catch one right in his hands. I thought that as I saw that that it explained why he's gone. I think Hudson will be that guy this year.

I think the defense may be better. Coordinator for one, and scheme for the other. Our DBs may be the best position group on the team. Getting 5 on the field at once may be a bonus. I don't think Knowles will take a half to figure out how to stop someone, either.
 
On defense it depends on how strong the D-line is. On paper we will be weaker. At DE we had Carter and DDS now it is DDS and Fisher. That is a step back. At DL we had Thomas and Durant, now Durant and Ford/Gilliam. We do have strong depth at both DE and DL so we may be close to last year at DL especially with the Knowles upgrade. You said it, DDS is not Carter and Carter was a game changer, I don't think DDS is at Carter's level.

On offense it starts and ends with Allar. He needs to go from good to great. And within that he needs to go from average/poor in big games to very good/elite in big games. There is a lot intertwined in that assessment. Allar needs to control what he can control....leadership, poise, calm under pressure both during a play and not in a play but also in the huddle and on the sidelines, smart decision making, technical mechanics like footwork while under pressure, pocket presence, throwing guys open, accuracy, dissecting coverages quickly and accurately, tucking and running at the right moments, getting down when running to avoid a big hit, etc. Receivers need to help him, crisp routes, physicality, winning 50 50 balls, reading defenses, downfield blocking, etc.

Speaking of the receivers and the tight ends. Despite losing Warren I do think our passing game is better from looking just from the perspective of those two position groups. Dinkins is excellent, voted one of the top freak athletes and Luke Reynolds will be even better. Rapp should round into form as the season progresses. On the WR front I know Harrison Wallace was a top ranked portal guy but the fact is he could not get it done in big moments against elite defenses. Between Hudson, Pena and Ross that is an upgrade vs Wallace, Evans and Clifford. We still have Clifford who will be steady and make some plays for us but the big upgrade versus last year are the young guys. We now have Denmark with another year in the program and Koby Howard. I have to believe these two guys will be a part of the passing game (possibly a key, integral part) and make plays for us. We had zero contribution from depth WRs last year.

Back to Allar, he has not shown the "it" factor in these big, tough games versus competition of equal or slightly better talent to ours (sans USC last year). He has not stepped up in winning time. I watched the end of the ND game last night and had a couple observations. The first was when ND had the ball on the possession before Allar threw the pick they had a shot of Allar on the bench. I think it was after ND picked up a first down or we had that hands to the face 15 yard penalty on Durant. He looked frustrated, almost defeated. He cannot be so emotional in those moments. Be mentally tougher, exude confidence even swagger. I think this may have contributed to the pick. He doesn't have the confidence and gravitas in these big moments. He did it vs USC so I think he has it within him to elevate his play in these moments but he needs to do it all the time.

The second observation has nothing to do with Allar but Franklin and AK. I had forgotten that on our final drive on the first play Singleton rips off an 11 or 12 yard run. The next play is the pick. What were they thinking!?? Terrible play call going to Omari Evans and horrific execution and decision making by Allar.

I have huge expectations for the team this year. I think we go 11-1 with a big White Out win vs Oregon but another disappointing loss to OSU. We make the playoffs then it comes down to whether we finally can win some of these big games. Are we mentally ready to make the plays when it counts? If we lose in Columbus we need to be mentally strong to shake that off, take care of business the rest of the regular season and then be ready to elevate our play in the playoffs. I am hopeful as the season goes on that the DLine youth gets better and better, the receivers get better, their chemistry with Allar gets better and Allar is playing his best at the end of the season.....and can make the clutch play in winning time.
Agree with almost everything you said.

I'm more concerned about the "IT" factor with Allar. I think the coaches can teach things like footwork but confidence and instinct are part of the way players are built. McSorley didn't have the size or arm strength that Allar has but he had no fear.

There are a lot of coaching decisions we can talk about but I'll mention two. One was Kotelnicki who had a creative game plan to keep opposing defenses off balance. Then he went conservative vs OSU. Who can forget 1st and goal from the 3 when he called 3 straight runs up the middle? Another was when PSU led SMU 14-0 and PSU had the ball 4th and 1 on our own 19 yard line. For some reason Franklin decided to go for it and we were stopped. Why would any coach risk a 14-0 lead and lost momentum by going for it inside your own 20? It worked out because Deluca got an INT but that's not the point. What a dumb decision and there have been several others like that.
 
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