Retain vs. Recruit

[Frank Lee]

There's a balance with NIL money going to HS recruits, portal players, and the existing roster. IMHO, develop and retain is a solid strategy with maybe 75% of NIL going to retainment. Older, bigger, experienced 4-stars and a few 3-stars under strong S&C tutelage.

 

[LudicrousSpeedGO!]

There's a balance with NIL money going to HS recruits, portal players, and the existing roster. IMHO, develop and retain is a solid strategy with maybe 75% of NIL going to retainment. Older, bigger, experienced 4-stars and a few 3-stars under strong S&C tutelage.

Good point. There has to be some calculus applied to retain verses attract. I suspect that we err on the side of retain because you know what you have. But it cannot be 100% retain because then you aren't competitive with attracting top recruits or transfers.

 

[NittanyLion99]

Good point. There has to be some calculus applied to retain verses attract. I suspect that we err on the side of retain because you know what you have. But it cannot be 100% retain because then you aren't competitive with attracting top recruits or transfers.

If you pay a HS recruit and he doesn't deliver, you have to pull the $$. It's now a free agent market with finite dollars to compete for free agent talent. We now root for the uniform, not the kids.

 

[Frank Lee]

Good point. There has to be some calculus applied to retain verses attract. I suspect that we err on the side of retain because you know what you have. But it cannot be 100% retain because then you aren't competitive with attracting top recruits or transfers.

Yes. Even with a top 15 recruiting class, there's eventual attrition and additions. In two to three years, there is cohesion, some unexpected stars, a playoff appearance, and another run for a natty. Nothing wrong with that.

 

[IANit]

Good point. There has to be some calculus applied to retain verses attract. I suspect that we err on the side of retain because you know what you have. But it cannot be 100% retain because then you aren't competitive with attracting top recruits or transfers.

"You know what you have" is the key point there. To an extent I'd even put transfers, especially transfers you had a relationship with during recruiting, above all but the very best high school kids in terms of NIL. You're usually able to get a pretty good idea if they can play at the level you need. High school recruits frequently don't pan out.

 

[LudicrousSpeedGO!]

"You know what you have" is the key point there. To an extent I'd even put transfers, especially transfers you had a relationship with during recruiting, above all but the very best high school kids in terms of NIL. You're usually able to get a pretty good idea if they can play at the level you need. High school recruits frequently don't pan out.

It's surprising to me just how many 5 stars don't make it. Are the rankings that bad? Are 5 stars more likely to be at their physical peak? Do some get too wrapped up in their HS rankings and don't put in the work? Granted, a higher percentage of 5 stars make it to the next level than 4 stars, 3 stars, etc., but it does seem like there are a decent amount of total busts.

 

[Lazy Dave]

It's surprising to me just how many 5 stars don't make it. Are the rankings that bad? Are 5 stars more likely to be at their physical peak? Do some get too wrapped up in their HS rankings and don't put in the work? Granted, a higher percentage of 5 stars make it to the next level than 4 stars, 3 stars, etc., but it does seem like there are a decent amount of total busts.

5*s are the equivalent of NFL 1st round selections. How many of these succeed vs bust?

I believe that quicker money definitely hurts some of these players. NFL is probably happier that these players get weeded out sooner than later (and not at their cost).

 

[Midnighter]

Penn State has a blueprint I think for the NIL era and it’s retain/pay top performers and develop high three/four stars (Carter, Fashanu, Warren, Porter Jr, etc) who want to be at Penn State. Paying big bucks to HS 5*’s is for desperate or stupidly rich programs. Can you imagine what Corey Jones or Floyd Wedderburn or Dan Kendra would have demanded? Pass. Franklin doing it the right way IMO. If you want to break the bank, do it on a portal guy.

 

[91Joe95]

It's surprising to me just how many 5 stars don't make it. Are the rankings that bad? Are 5 stars more likely to be at their physical peak? Do some get too wrapped up in their HS rankings and don't put in the work? Granted, a higher percentage of 5 stars make it to the next level than 4 stars, 3 stars, etc., but it does seem like there are a decent amount of total busts.

Stars aren't awarded merely on talent, but in a willingness to go to certain camps, list certain schools, etc.

 

[bdroc]

There's a balance with NIL money going to HS recruits, portal players, and the existing roster. IMHO, develop and retain is a solid strategy with maybe 75% of NIL going to retainment. Older, bigger, experienced 4-stars and a few 3-stars under strong S&C tutelage.

Sure. A lot of NIL had to go to keep players like Allar, Singleton, DDS, and Harris. It seems a lot of NIL money should be freed up next year unless there are some big time breakout players this year. Of course it's possible we spent more than we replenished this year.

 

[Pennstate_one]

There's a balance with NIL money going to HS recruits, portal players, and the existing roster. IMHO, develop and retain is a solid strategy with maybe 75% of NIL going to retainment. Older, bigger, experienced 4-stars and a few 3-stars under strong S&C tutelage.

Yes, it’s pretty much like the NFL, where you can pay a rookie who hasn’t proven themselves yet, versus a young pro who’s at least experienced the speed of the game.

 

[LudicrousSpeedGO!]

Penn State has a blueprint I think for the NIL era and it’s retain/pay top performers and develop high three/four stars (Carter, Fashanu, Warren, Porter Jr, etc) who want to be at Penn State. Paying big bucks to HS 5*’s is for desperate or stupidly rich programs. Can you imagine what Corey Jones or Floyd Wedderburn or Dan Kendra would have demanded? Pass. Franklin doing it the right way IMO. If you want to break the bank, do it on a portal guy.

Agree to an extent. However, I think you still need a few more top 100 guys than this class has. Kevin Brown is way under-rated due to injury. He is a 5 star in my eyes. But we could have used at least 2 more top players. I do think the 2027 class is on pace to be on target and land enough top 100 type talent to compete for championships down the road, especially if we get there this season on the field.

I agree with the idea that a fair number of top 100 players just don't live up to the billing, but there are a few that are program changers and almost out-perform their already top 100 rankings. I think we need at least 2 to 4 (4 most years) top 100 guys per year to compete for championships regularly. Most schools are going to lock down their top 100 guys that live up to their rankings for 3+ years. It's going to be hard to get that elite talent in the portal. The schools that put the downpayment on those investments get the first shot.

 

[bdroc]

Yes, it’s pretty much like the NFL, where you can pay a rookie who hasn’t proven themselves yet, versus a young pro who’s at least experienced the speed of the game.

Except once you pay the NFL rookie he's bound by his contract for a certain number of years.

 

[4rosco]

Except once you pay the NFL rookie he's bound by his contract for a certain number of years.

Looks like FSU is trying to take back control over the players with their NIL contract language. Wonder how their's compare to PSU and other top teams. Some are saying this will kill FSU recruiting.

Mark Ingram shreds FSU's reported rev-share contract terms

On a recent episode of The Triple Option podcast, Mark Ingram questioned FSU's reported new contract clauses.

www.on3.com

 

[Pennstate_one]

Except once you pay the NFL rookie he's bound by his contract for a certain number of years.

Yeah, I believe that is something that needs addressed. If they want to run this like a semi-pro league, the commits should have to honor the contract. Just makes sense. It's the wild west right now.

 

[ryoder1]

Agree to an extent. However, I think you still need a few more top 100 guys than this class has. Kevin Brown is way under-rated due to injury. He is a 5 star in my eyes. But we could have used at least 2 more top players. I do think the 2027 class is on pace to be on target and land enough top 100 type talent to compete for championships down the road, especially if we get there this season on the field.

I agree with the idea that a fair number of top 100 players just don't live up to the billing, but there are a few that are program changers and almost out-perform their already top 100 rankings. I think we need at least 2 to 4 (4 most years) top 100 guys per year to compete for championships regularly. Most schools are going to lock down their top 100 guys that live up to their rankings for 3+ years. It's going to be hard to get that elite talent in the portal. The schools that put the downpayment on those investments get the first shot.

I think we still need to recruit in the top 15 with an eye towards 10-12. Thst type of class keeps us in range of the top 5 recruiting programs. It would be nice to get a #6 or #7 HS recruiting class once every four years like we have done ('18 and '22).

We need enough NIL to do that on the HS recruiting front and also retain our top talent. If we start slipping in HS recruiting outside the top 15 then we become really disadvantaged from a talent standpoint versus the elite programs getting a lot of high 4 star and 5 star guys. I don't think our talent development will be good enough to close the gap.

 

[LudicrousSpeedGO!]

I think we still need to recruit in the top 15 with an eye towards 10-12. Thst type of class keeps us in range of the top 5 recruiting programs. It would be nice to get a #6 or #7 HS recruiting class once every four years like we have done ('18 and '22).

We need enough NIL to do that on the HS recruiting front and also retain our top talent. If we start slipping in HS recruiting outside the top 15 then we become really disadvantaged from a talent standpoint versus the elite programs getting a lot of high 4 star and 5 star guys. I don't think our talent development will be good enough to close the gap.

If we make a run this year and get into the national championship game, I can see 2027 being close to a top 5 class. It already has a great start, and we will have a lot of NIL coming off the board which opens up more for incoming players. Last years run into the final 4 impact is mostly going to be felt in the 2027/2028 recruiting classes. If we get back to back top 4 or better, than 2028/2029 might just exceed your expectations.

 

[bdroc]

If we make a run this year and get into the national championship game, I can see 2027 being close to a top 5 class. It already has a great start, and we will have a lot of NIL coming off the board which opens up more for incoming players. Last years run into the final 4 impact is mostly going to be felt in the 2027/2028 recruiting classes. If we get back to back top 4 or better, than 2028/2029 might just exceed your expectations.

What you're saying makes perfect sense to me but why didn't our recruiting get a boost from making it to the semi finals last year? Same with NIL coming off the board. That should free up a lot of $$$ for the 2026 class.

 

[LudicrousSpeedGO!]

What you're saying makes perfect sense to me but why didn't our recruiting get a boost from making it to the semi finals last year? Same with NIL coming off the board. That should free up a lot of $$$ for the 2026 class.

The impressions for 2026 were made in the seasons when those recruits were 8th, 9th, 10th, and 11th graders. The top recruits start getting recruited 8th, 9th, and 10th grade. That's when the first and biggest impressions are made. Below is the PSU record in the seasons before the 2026 class's 8th, 9th, and 10th grade year. You can argue that we made a big jump to relevancy during their 9th, 10th, and 11th grade seasons but we were not the established perennial top team in those years. We were consistently a notch below the elite. You could also argue that with a back-to-back trip to the semifinals and possibly a national championship birth that we would break into the elite in the eyes of recruits. Plus, those 2020 and 2021 mediocre seasons would be off of their radar.

Big Ten	James Franklin (10-3)	Peach Bowl (L)
Big Ten	James Franklin (11-2)	Rose Bowl (W)
Big Ten	James Franklin (7-6)	Outback Bowl (L)
Big Ten	James Franklin (4-5)

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2​

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2023​

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10​

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3​

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0​

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.769​

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7​

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2​

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0​

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.778​

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18.23​

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4.08​

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7​

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6​

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13​

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10​

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10​

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3​

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2022​

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11​

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2​

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0​

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.846​

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7​

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2​

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0​

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.778​

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17.56​

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4.02​

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7​

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7​

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8​

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11​

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4​

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2021​

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7​

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6​

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0​

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.538​

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4​

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5​

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0​

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.444​

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11.22​

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5.53​

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19​

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4​

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5​

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2020​

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5​

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0​

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.444​

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4​

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5​

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0​

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.444​

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4.22​

[/td][td]

3.99​

[/td]​

[td]

7​

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7​

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I will say that the team's performance in the formative years for recruiting is only one influencing factor. Oregon, Ohio St, and at least a handful of others are still going to outbid in NIL for 5 stars. There's a whole bunch of other factors. But I like how we are trending for 2027 classes and beyond.

 

[Lazy Dave]

What you're saying makes perfect sense to me but why didn't our recruiting get a boost from making it to the semi finals last year? Same with NIL coming off the board. That should free up a lot of $$$ for the 2026 class.

My guess is that top 100 kids are going to the highest bidder for the most part. I read Texas Tech is signing a OT for 3 years and 5.1 million.

I don't think we are out-bidding teams for those type of kids. At least not enough to be a top 5 ranked team as far as recruiting sites goes.