Serious question. Is the Blue Chip Ratio becoming outdated in the portal era?

bdroc said:
9 of the 10 P4 participants in this year's college football playoffs have had good H.S. recruiting classes (unless you throw out Texas Tech whose classes have only been ranked in the 20s).

4*/5* recruits in 2026 class:
USC 22
Oregon 16
OSU 19
Michigan 11

These schools are wasting a lot of time and money if H.S. recruiting really doesn't matter and Minnesota is just as likely to with the BiG.
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Well, the free for all just truly started a year or so ago.

And yes, they are wasting a lot of money. But that's what cfb is all about.
 
bdroc said:
9 of the 10 P4 participants in this year's college football playoffs have had good H.S. recruiting classes (unless you throw out Texas Tech whose classes have only been ranked in the 20s).

4*/5* recruits in 2026 class:
USC 22
Oregon 16
OSU 19
Michigan 11

These schools are wasting a lot of time and money if H.S. recruiting really doesn't matter and Minnesota is just as likely to with the BiG.
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Correct. Curt Cignetti is ahead of the curve and Lincoln Riley is behind it. CMC is right behind Cignetti, IMO. Things will adjust where few HSers will be in big demand (cuz they can leave at any time), but overall its "we'd like you to join us. We pay the rookie minimum, and we'll see if you've got what it takes".
Consider it similar to a company paying a 35-year old, proven sales executive $150k-$200k versus paying the same to a 25-year old newly-minted Harvard MBA.
 
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bdroc said:
Va Tech got the lion's share of our top recruits for 2026. Then they added Grunk & Reynolds in the portal. It seems that very few players wanted anything to do with PSU. That tells me they either loved Franklin or really hated what they saw going on at PSU. A lot of these kids were from PA and weren't willing to hang around to see what kind of money they would get or who the next coach would be.

I don't think there's a lot of familiarity at Tennessee. Coleman was 5*. Something tells me he was in the dog house at PSU. Gilliam was 4*. Campbell & Lane were high 3*. Tennessee could be a threat next year because their recruiting class was ranked #7 before adding these highly rated players from PSU.
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Franklin was a known.
Campbell was an unknown.

It appears that Franklin sold himself, not Penn State and what it could offer. There was literally nothing for them to "hang around" for because their reason for committing was gone.
 
NittanyLion99 said:
Franklin was a known.
Campbell was an unknown.

It appears that Franklin sold himself, not Penn State and what it could offer. There was literally nothing for them to "hang around" for because their reason for committing was gone.
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Agree. I also think Franklin was slow to adapt to the portal. We got a few kids but I think CJF sold himself on dedication to kids that committed out of HS> Winning programs today are built on a few HS kids but more kids that proved themselves in lesser leagues and lesser programs. For example, you really have to look hard to find a QB in the playoffs that didn't xfer in from another program as a Jr or Sr.
 
Sheriff Coffee said:
Agree. I also think Franklin was slow to adapt to the portal. We got a few kids but I think CJF sold himself on dedication to kids that committed out of HS> Winning programs today are built on a few HS kids but more kids that proved themselves in lesser leagues and lesser programs. For example, you really have to look hard to find a QB in the playoffs that didn't xfer in from another program as a Jr or Sr.
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Speaking of looking hard, Mendoza lived about a mile from Mami. His family's wealth may have helped them miss on him.
 
LudicrousSpeedGO! said:
They followed the coaches. Many committed to Franklin, not PSU. Some followed their coordinator. We did miss the 2026 recruiting class. Many posters on other site say that Franklin and those still on the staff that followed him had told kids and their parents that their scholarship offers were no longer valid. They cite quotes from some parents.

Not much we could have done there except what Campbell has done by raiding the best of ISU's class and getting a few flips and then backfill with young portal talent. Fortunately for us in this situation, the game has changed. You can miss a recruiting class and grab the talent in the portal. Plus, teams are getting to the very top by emphasizing production in the portal over potential.
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I wonder if we will have a legitimate chance of pulling some of the guys in the 2026 class back in the portal next year. If VA Tech struggles and we do well, there might be opportunities.
 
Nemo said:
I wonder if we will have a legitimate chance of pulling some of the guys in the 2026 class back in the portal next year. If VA Tech struggles and we do well, there might be opportunities.
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A lot depends on NIL money. Lots of reports of kids being told they’d get big bucks in the portal and are going to actually lose money. Many are trying to go back and are being told there is no room at the inn.

I suspect coaches are a lot less interested in paying money for freshman and sophomores when they can get juniors and seniors for the same or less money. Coaches are no longer being rewarded for developing talent. You have to win, and win now.
 
LudicrousSpeedGO! said:
Tennessee like other teams is not immune. Tennessee players in the Transfer Portal
S Kaleb Beasley
DL Josh Schell
LEO Jordan Ross
IOL Brian Grant
IOL William Satterwhite
DL Jayden Loftin
K Max Gilbert
EDGE Emmanuel Okoye
EDGE Caleb Herring
CB Rickey Gibson III
WR Amari Jefferson
WR Braylon Harmon
OT Lance Heard
OT Bennett Warren
CB Colin Brazzell
WR Tommy Winston III
IOL Max Anderson
DL Herb Gray
OT Trevor Duncan
RB Peyton Lewis
QB Jake Merklinger
CB Marcus Goree Jr.
LB Brenden Anes
EDGE Kellen Lindstrom
DL Jamal Wallace
S Boo Carter

Not as long of a list as PSU but they didn't change out their entire staff. A lot of players commit to a head coach and that makes a difference.

Let me clarify. I am not saying PSU revoked an entire classes scholarships. I am telling you that on multiple sites it has been posted, mostly sourced from parents of recruits, that as Franklin left HE or his staff that followed him to Vo Tech told recruits that their scholarship offers were no longer valid. I cannot verify if this is true although I may ask a friend who coaches a former commit that bailed. I merely am relaying that this explanation has popped up citing players parents on multiple sites. It could check out considering that nearly all of the 2026 class bailed and didn't at other schools that changed coaching staffs.
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It’s not that their scholly offers were revoked. It’s that nobody knew. Would a knew coach still offer them? Would they fit in a new coach’s system? What players would a new coach bring to their position? Who would the coordinator and position coach be?

No one at the school could answer any question. And it’s possible, even likely, the school told the players that they won’t be held to any commitments or denigrated for changing schools.

And taking so long, right up to signing day, to hire a new coach added to the confusion. Kids had to make a decision or risk losing out on other offers.
 
Recruit and pay a 4* or 5* WR from IMG or Mater Dei, or a Keith Jones from Grambling type of player? Remember, any recruit or roster player can enter the portal any year he wants. It'll be interesting how many 4* & 5* play to their potential and who also stick with their original teams.
 
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