Texas flash flood kills 24...20 still missing at youth camp

A flash flood just occurred in NM. The one article I read claimed that it was due to a lack of vegetation from fires. Maybe that explains 5% of the problem and probably explains mud slides in California, but it's the hard caliche ground that catches and funnels the water. It's a SW thing. Building on it requires replacing the bucket with a jackhammer.
Easterners, and folks who haven't lived out west, really don't understand just how fast washes and floods rise. This is not the Susquehanna rising over days. People seem to want 100% guarantees of everything in life anymore. Nature doesn't work like that.
 
Another DEI failure. He could face a no confidence vote.

This is the same chief who, in a 2020 interview, said:
“What’s important is that I’m not the last African American fire chief.”
He emphasized diversity goals early and often. Critics say disaster readiness was never part of the conversation.”
To be fair, his city of Austin was under flash flood watch and he needed assets to be ready.

I have a cousin north of Austin that was high enough to be safe but the main road into their shopping district was under water the next day.
 
Another DEI failure. He could face a no confidence vote.

This is the same chief who, in a 2020 interview, said:
“What’s important is that I’m not the last African American fire chief.”
He emphasized diversity goals early and often. Critics say disaster readiness was never part of the conversation.”

Not a good look, in terms of basic humanity, that the minute you see a minority in charge, you believe it’s DEI, and not merit-based. But you do you.
 
The NWS issued a flood watch for the affected area on Thursday afternoon, fully 12 hours before the event.

This escalated to a flood warning at approximately 1:00 AM on Friday...over 3 hours before Camp Mystic was wiped out and so many people lost their lives.

Automated alerts were sent to area cellphones and NWS personnel were in touch with...or tried to get in touch with...local officials to emphasize the urgency of the situation.

I think county and town officials have some hard questions to answer. So far some of them have been heard to say that nobody expected or could imagine that the river would rise so rapidly in such a short period of time, but I don't think their lack of imagination lets them off the hook.

 
The NWS issued a flood watch for the affected area on Thursday afternoon, fully 12 hours before the event.

This escalated to a flood warning at approximately 1:00 AM on Friday...over 3 hours before Camp Mystic was wiped out and so many people lost their lives.

Automated alerts were sent to area cellphones and NWS personnel were in touch with...or tried to get in touch with...local officials to emphasize the urgency of the situation.

I think county and town officials have some hard questions to answer. So far some of them have been heard to say that nobody expected or could imagine that the river would rise so rapidly in such a short period of time, but I don't think their lack of imagination lets them off the hook.

Both the local emergency management agencies and the camps themselves screwed up big time.

Local authorities had to know that cell phone service along the river was poor at best, making cell phone alerts useless. They should have had a system in place to notify different campsites.

A network of local police, fire, EMTs and government officials to actually assigned to various sites to physically warn people.

And the camps like Mystic that are ‘off the grid’ should have at least two managers on the grid to monitor floods, tornadoes, fire, criminal activity and other dangers.

Being off the grid for a week or two is great for today’s kids but someone needs to monitor conditions. Since there was the remnants of a tropical storm in the area they should have been on heightened awareness.

Hopefully people will learn from this disaster and improve safety protocols.
 
There's only so much that can be done. It was a camp and rv park along a known flood plain.

And even if they know what was coming, there still could have been little to do.

Like the one guy who was awake at the time at his rv. He knew what was coming and still barely made it out
 
Both the local emergency management agencies and the camps themselves screwed up big time.

Local authorities had to know that cell phone service along the river was poor at best, making cell phone alerts useless. They should have had a system in place to notify different campsites.

A network of local police, fire, EMTs and government officials to actually assigned to various sites to physically warn people.

And the camps like Mystic that are ‘off the grid’ should have at least two managers on the grid to monitor floods, tornadoes, fire, criminal activity and other dangers.

Being off the grid for a week or two is great for today’s kids but someone needs to monitor conditions. Since there was the remnants of a tropical storm in the area they should have been on heightened awareness.

Hopefully people will learn from this disaster and improve safety protocols.
No doubt. But here's the thing. I had no cell phone within miles of my cabin. Well, unless you ran internet. Probably not available in that area. However, we always had weather radios and always paid attention along the Sock, Little and Big Pine, and the Susquehanna river. How camps like this in Texas weren’t paying attention or listening, is on them. Everyone with a brain knows, you go into the back country, be prepared. Man, do we miss the Boy and Girl Scouts of America. They used to teach this stuff. Parents, who fished and hunted, knew this stuff.
 
Both the local emergency management agencies and the camps themselves screwed up big time.

Local authorities had to know that cell phone service along the river was poor at best, making cell phone alerts useless. They should have had a system in place to notify different campsites.

A network of local police, fire, EMTs and government officials to actually assigned to various sites to physically warn people.

And the camps like Mystic that are ‘off the grid’ should have at least two managers on the grid to monitor floods, tornadoes, fire, criminal activity and other dangers.

Being off the grid for a week or two is great for today’s kids but someone needs to monitor conditions. Since there was the remnants of a tropical storm in the area they should have been on heightened awareness.

Hopefully people will learn from this disaster and improve safety protocols.
I will also add. States simply cannot afford these services. Nor, should they expect them. I've been stranded several times in the Rockies and ranges in Arizona. From massive snows to washes. You know going out, sh&t happens and you can get easily stranded. In the winter in the Rockies, or the monsoon rains in Arizona, you know, there is a good chance things can go badly very quickly.
 
I will also add. States simply cannot afford these services. Nor, should they expect them. I've been stranded several times in the Rockies and ranges in Arizona. From massive snows to washes. You know going out, sh&t happens and you can get easily stranded. In the winter in the Rockies, or the monsoon rains in Arizona, you know, there is a good chance things can go badly very quickly.

Starlink.
 
There's only so much that can be done. It was a camp and rv park along a known flood plain.

And even if they know what was coming, there still could have been little to do.

Like the one guy who was awake at the time at his rv. He knew what was coming and still barely made it out

Yeah, in dissecting this type of disaster, it usually turns out NOT to be a simple matter of willful negligence. If that were the issue, then fine, some heads on a platter are in order.

However, typically it turns out to be errors of judgment...not seeing something that appears obvious in retrospect...all too human carelessness, inattentiveness, and lack of imagination regarding potential worst-case scenarios.

That's why I think they need to take a hard look at what happened and not shirk from asking uncomfortable questions. I mean, that's how the analysis of airplane disasters is approached: find out what went wrong and recommend ways to ensure it can't happen again.

The point is not to get scalps (unless the mistakes are so extreme as to cross the line into criminal negligence) but rather to make sure such a tragedy will never be repeated.

All this said, I think Kerr County had best prepare for some pretty big civil lawsuits...if the legal code permits such action...because based on what we know now, county and town officials seem vulnerable on a number of grounds.
 
Both the local emergency management agencies and the camps themselves screwed up big time.

Local authorities had to know that cell phone service along the river was poor at best, making cell phone alerts useless. They should have had a system in place to notify different campsites.

A network of local police, fire, EMTs and government officials to actually assigned to various sites to physically warn people.

And the camps like Mystic that are ‘off the grid’ should have at least two managers on the grid to monitor floods, tornadoes, fire, criminal activity and other dangers.

Being off the grid for a week or two is great for today’s kids but someone needs to monitor conditions. Since there was the remnants of a tropical storm in the area they should have been on heightened awareness.

Hopefully people will learn from this disaster and improve safety protocols.

Linked below is another excellent CNN piece on the history of flooding in that area, the concerns previously expressed by the owner of the camp (who died last week trying to save campers), and the placement of camper cabins in a known flood zone.

I mean, NWS put up a flood watch the afternoon before the catastrophe. Why were some precautionary measures not taken? It's getting harder to explain or excuse that:

 
A storm system set up over the central part of the state and dumped a foot of rain in only hours, sweeping away homes and a camp for girls on the Guadalupe River. 20 girls still missing at last report.

It's scary how quickly such floods can materialize. One victim said she woke up at 2:30 AM and found the river running fast but saw nothing too alarming. One hour later she was fleeing for her life:

Warren PA, my home town has had a siren warning system for over 50 years. This is tied to several warning systems. Each county needs to be responsible. It is not a federal issue. Let us put the word RESPONSIBILITY back in the dictionary. This valley has flooded many times. This was a 100 year flood. Tenneco made me plan for a 100 year rain when I build the national distribution center in Arkansas
I spent $250,00 to install a pump to evacuate water that would overrun the facility in a 100 year rain fall. Companies plan for 100 year rains. Local governments need to do the same.
 
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