Interesting analysis I saw from a poster on 247. Seems to confirm that PSU outperforms our recruiting rankings very consistently.

Lazy Dave said:
OSU is 4th. You focused on the kids who didn't make it. It's 9 players different going up to Bama at #1. That isn't earth shattering.

Also, I wouldn't call it mismanagement that Burrow (wow, completely forgot about him) and Williams had succeeded elsewhere. It's not like OSU floundered at 9-3 with no draft picks in their absence. It just shows the amount of talent they had.

It's a matter of perspective.
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The amount of talent is the main point. They should be #1 or #2 in the NFL draft over the timeframe. Alabama's gap in this regard matches their gap with us. The difference is that Ohio St has the #1 recruiting over the timeframe (Alabama is close) and PSU has 15th recruiting. This is my point. Why do players get drafted out of Alabama at a higher rate than Ohio St with essentially the same incoming talent level? The answer is that Ohio St's player developing is lagging. Same or better talent in and fewer draft picks out. That is the math, and it is consistent over the last decade plus.
 
LudicrousSpeedGO! said:
If your position is that recruiting rankings do not matter you would be 100% wrong. They absolutely do matter and that has been shown repeatedly. 5 stars get to the league at a much higher rate than 4 stars. 4 stars do at a much higher rate than 3 stars, and so on. It isn't even a rational position that recruiting rankings are useless information. It is nonsensical. It is like denying reality. You are 100% wrong on the chances of getting drafted as I have shown with the data above. QED.
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I feel like the article is trying to take credit for our 0 to 60 time when tOSU is doing 75 The goal is to win games and tOSU is doing that better than we are…. Much
 
LudicrousSpeedGO! said:
False. Your chance of playing for a championship are higher but your chances of playing in the NFL are lower. Ohio St has turned 90 top 100 players (and more 5 stars and 4 stars than PSU) into 56 NFL draft picks. Penn State has turned only 28 top 100 players (and 3X fewer 5 stars and fewer 4 stars) into 46 NFL draft picks. Our success rate is not just higher; it is massively higher. Like, the top recruits are flaming out at Ohio St at an alarming rate while PSU is not just getting them drafted but also developing much lower rated guys to get drafted.
Click to expand...
56>46.
 
Sherriff Coffee said:
I feel like the article is trying to take credit for our 0 to 60 time when tOSU is doing 75 The goal is to win games and tOSU is doing that better than we are…. Much
Click to expand...
What article? We are discussing actual statistics that did not come from any article. They are present on 247 recruiting data and in the NFL draft records for anyone to analyze.

Those statistics clearly show Ohio St at minimum slightly under-performing in player development in getting top talent to the NFL draft and they clearly show PSU over-performing in player development in getting lesser talent to the NFL draft at a higher rate than we should. I've shown this repeatedly in the statistics. Your arguments have either ignore recruiting talent all together, talked about some article that hasn't been posted if it exists, and/or devolve into unrelated ideas like driving speeds. I can repost the stats if it helps. I generally like you as a poster but your talking points on this discussion have not been logical.
 
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LudicrousSpeedGO! said:
What article? We are discussing actual statistics that did not come from any article. They are present on 247 recruiting data and in the NFL draft records for anyone to analyze.

Those statistics clearly show Ohio St at minimum slightly under-performing in player development in getting top talent to the NFL draft and they clearly show PSU over-performing in player development in getting lesser talent to the NFL draft at a higher rate than we should. I've shown this repeatedly in the statistics. Your arguments have either ignore recruiting talent all together, talked about some article that hasn't been posted if it exists, and/or devolve into unrelated ideas like driving speeds. I can repost the stats if it helps. I generally like you as a poster but your talking points on this discussion have not been logical.
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Makes no sense to me. Winning is not underperforming. Having more people drafted is not underperforming. Having more players in the nfl is not underperforming.

You are making up statistics to justify losing. Hips don’t lie.
 
Sherriff Coffee said:
Makes no sense to me. Winning is not underperforming. Having more people drafted is not underperforming. Having more players in the nfl is not underperforming.

You are making up statistics to justify losing. Hips don’t lie.
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Now you think the statistics are made up? You can verify them yourself in like 10 minutes. I used duckduckgo.com ai assistant to tally up the number of NFL draft prospects by school since 2014. You can go back to the actual drafts and do that yourself if you don't trust the ai result to provide a correct tally. The number of top 100, 5 star and 4 star players for each team can be tallied up on 247's site in like 10 minutes if you want to do it yourself. Go ahead and check the numbers.

The truth is that you have come down to "making up statistics" as an excuse to totally ignore the actual results. The data that I posted are the results. You for some reason are unwilling to accept that reality. But those are the results. Ohio St turned over 3x more top 100 players, 3x more 5 stars, and significantly more 4 stars than PSU had to work with into a measly 1 more NFL draft pick on average per year. This is about the same gap that Ohio St is behind Alabama despite having the same or better recruiting than Alabama. Ohio St has underperformed. That is the reality over a decade plus of data. PSU has outperformed over that same timeframe. You have to be mathematically challenged or unwilling to accept reality to not see this in the data. It cannot be more obvious.

Again, I make no claims that we have passed them on the field. We haven't because they are #1 in recruiting over this period and we are #15. However, smart recruits that understand math and have seen a decade+ of data in the Franklin era know that PSU develops players better for the NFL draft. This is undeniable. The data strongly bears this fact out.
 
LudicrousSpeed ..

I think that your point that Franklin and his coaching staff(s) do a good job of developing "lower regarded" recruits for potential NFL careers relative to tOSU have been made. Congrats.

I also think that Sherriff Coffee has a very legitimate point that tOSU still wins (dominates) the head--to-head game results even though PSU develops players for the NFL draft at a better rate.

My question is why has PSU been beaten every year since 2016 when your statistics would imply/infer that this dominance should not exist. After all PSU's players have the innate ability and in fact have competed very well against the Buckeyes. They just don't win the games.

At the risk of opening a true can of worms, why don't you compare recruiting results / NFL draft results of some lesser college football programs. I suspect that both tOSU and PSU might not fare so well in potential NFL career development.
 
LudicrousSpeedGO! said:
The amount of talent is the main point. They should be #1 or #2 in the NFL draft over the timeframe. Alabama's gap in this regard matches their gap with us. The difference is that Ohio St has the #1 recruiting over the timeframe (Alabama is close) and PSU has 15th recruiting. This is my point. Why do players get drafted out of Alabama at a higher rate than Ohio St with essentially the same incoming talent level? The answer is that Ohio St's player developing is lagging. Same or better talent in and fewer draft picks out. That is the math, and it is consistent over the last decade plus.
Click to expand...

Probably because Bama won 5 titles and played for 2 more during this time frame. You don't get to triple your NFL draft picks simply because you recruit 3x as many top 100 players.

OSU's lag is in comparison to Bama, who had a historic great run under Saban. I don't think anybody disagrees that OSU has done less with more, but their "less" is still 2 titles in a decade and #4 in draft picks.

I'd like to have that "less" over the next 10 years.
 
MrDibbs said:
LudicrousSpeed ..

I think that your point that Franklin and his coaching staff(s) do a good job of developing "lower regarded" recruits for potential NFL careers relative to tOSU have been made. Congrats.

I also think that Sherriff Coffee has a very legitimate point that tOSU still wins (dominates) the head--to-head game results even though PSU develops players for the NFL draft at a better rate.

My question is why has PSU been beaten every year since 2016 when your statistics would imply/infer that this dominance should not exist. After all PSU's players have the innate ability and in fact have competed very well against the Buckeyes. They just don't win the games.

At the risk of opening a true can of worms, why don't you compare recruiting results / NFL draft results of some lesser college football programs. I suspect that both tOSU and PSU might not fare so well in potential NFL career development.
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1) You are correct in that PSU is much better in terms of player development and that the data bears this out well beyond statistically significance. Essentially, you have to deny reality to not come to this conclusion.

2) I have never disagreed that Ohio St doesn't win the head-to-head game results. This is a result of their #1 in the nation recruiting during Franklin's era and PSU at #15 in recruiting. In fact, I have stated that I am surprised that we play Ohio St so competitively nearly every year in spite of the large recruiting gap. That to me is shocking. They should be an average of a 2 TD win against us and most games come down to a play here or there.

3) I have not to this point compared results against lesser college football programs for multiple reasons:

a) The thread and discussion was a comparison of Ohio St to Penn St, not until your post did anyone wish to expand the discussion.
b) There are well over 100 universities at D1. Compiling that data would be very time consuming. Picking and choosing only a few would be cherry picking and not representative. I'll compile this data and rank order the results if you send me $250/hr for the work up front.
c) There are some lesser schools well known for putting guys into the league at a better than expected rate based on recruiting results. Wisconsin comes to mind. They would likely be above PSU but PSU would still fair extremely well. PSU is #15 in recruiting over the Franklin era and #10 in draft picks. We are clearly outperforming. Ohio St is #1 in recruiting and #4 in draft picks over the same timeframe. They are underperforming. I'm not compiling the recruiting rankings by school since 2014 (I'll estimate) but below I've used green to indicate the likely schools that are higher on the NFL draft pick list than they are on the recruiting rankings list for this period. I've used red to indicate the likely schools that are at least a few spots lower on the NFL draft pick list than their recruiting rankings over that timeframe.

Top 25 College Football Teams by NFL Draft Picks Since 2014​


1Alabama65
2LSU65
3USC62
4Ohio State56
5Florida55
6Georgia54
7Michigan50
8Oklahoma49
9Texas48
10Penn State47
11Miami (FL)46
12Notre Dame45
13Washington44
14Oregon43
15Auburn42
16Tennessee41
17Iowa40
18Wisconsin39
19South Carolina38
20Nebraska37
21Texas A&M36
22Utah35
23Michigan State34
24North Carolina33
25Arizona State32
 
LudicrousSpeedGO! said:
Now you think the statistics are made up? You can verify them yourself in like 10 minutes. I used duckduckgo.com ai assistant to tally up the number of NFL draft prospects by school since 2014. You can go back to the actual drafts and do that yourself if you don't trust the ai result to provide a correct tally. The number of top 100, 5 star and 4 star players for each team can be tallied up on 247's site in like 10 minutes if you want to do it yourself. Go ahead and check the numbers.

The truth is that you have come down to "making up statistics" as an excuse to totally ignore the actual results. The data that I posted are the results. You for some reason are unwilling to accept that reality. But those are the results. Ohio St turned over 3x more top 100 players, 3x more 5 stars, and significantly more 4 stars than PSU had to work with into a measly 1 more NFL draft pick on average per year. This is about the same gap that Ohio St is behind Alabama despite having the same or better recruiting than Alabama. Ohio St has underperformed. That is the reality over a decade plus of data. PSU has outperformed over that same timeframe. You have to be mathematically challenged or unwilling to accept reality to not see this in the data. It cannot be more obvious.

Again, I make no claims that we have passed them on the field. We haven't because they are #1 in recruiting over this period and we are #15. However, smart recruits that understand math and have seen a decade+ of data in the Franklin era know that PSU develops players better for the NFL draft. This is undeniable. The data strongly bears this fact out.
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Stats are for losers. It is a great recruiting pitch for low four and three star kids. You know, the ones Ohio State doesn’t have room for after getting all their five and high fours
 
LudicrousSpeedGO! said:
Winning percentage since 2014 (Franklin era)
View attachment 21

Then he admits to cherry picking 2016 as start date to exclude 2014 & 2015 Sanctions campaigns:

Top 15 Teams in winning % seasons post PSU renaissance era 2016-2024:
user generated

And in a separate post he analyzes starting in 2016 while ignoring the Covid season (we unfortunately followed every rule while clearly others didn't and that season really didn't matter anyway).

View attachment 22

At any rate, we average recruiting classes in the mid-teens
2014 #24
2015 #14
2016 #20
2017 #15
2018 #6
2019 #12
2020 #15
2021 #21
2022 #6
2023 #14
2024 #15

But any measure that was posted above
Winning % since 2014 #9
Winning % since 2016 (non-sanction years) #8
Winning % since 2016 (non-sanction years excluding the covid throw-away year) #6 (and we may pass Michigan after their penalty comes down)

we performed as a top 5 to 10 team with about #15 ranked recruits.

Or we can measure by the number of NFL draft picks since 2014:

Schools with the Most NFL Draft Picks Since 2014​

Top Schools​

Top 25 College Football Teams by NFL Draft Picks Since 2014​


1Alabama65
2LSU65
3USC62
4Ohio State56
5Florida55
6Georgia54
7Michigan50
8Oklahoma49
9Texas48
10Penn State47
11Miami (FL)46
12Notre Dame45
13Washington44
14Oregon43
15Auburn42
16Tennessee41
17Iowa40
18Wisconsin39
19South Carolina38
20Nebraska37
21Texas A&M36
22Utah35
23Michigan State34
24North Carolina33
25Arizona State32

[th]
Rank

[/th][th]
College Football Team

[/th][th]
Total NFL Draft Picks

[/th]​



Clearly Penn State under James Franklin is outperforming our recruiting rankings. My question is this due to:
1) Finding under-rated recruits
2) Developing players well above their recruiting rankings
3) Strength and conditioning program
4) Some combination of 1 through 3

???
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No doubt we have a good program, good recruiting, good strength and conditioning and good player development. What we need however is to play in and or win a national championship game in order to get over the good to great recruiting hump.
 
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sr108 said:
No doubt we have a good program, good recruiting, good strength and conditioning and good player development. What we need however is the play in and or win a national championship game in order to get over the good to great recruiting hump.
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Yep...and there is no reason why we can't win it this season. Michigan couldn't do it until they did it. Ryan Day's tOSU couldn't do it until they did it. GA, AL, LSU were all in the same boat until they broke through and won a natty.

My wife talks about this all the time. "Don't defeat yourself!" We are taught to be humble and self-deprecating. Screw that. At some point, you need to know you are the best if you just execute on performance. I think that is where PSU is. If we don't win, it isn't because someone beat us...it will be because we beat ourselves. Allar is the perfect example. He is everything you want in a QB, but he needs to grow up. He needs to stop trying to please people, and he needs to forget about the last play to focus on the next one.
 
sr108 said:
No doubt we have a good program, good recruiting, good strength and conditioning and good player development. What we need however is the play in and or win a national championship game in order to get over the good to great recruiting hump.
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How do you define "good"?

Is a 15th ranked recruiting class "good"? I don't think so unless it's accompanied by a top 6 class every 4 or 5 years. I think 15th ranked classes can help form a base of talent but they need to be supplemented by some elite players.

2025 15th
2024 15th
2023 14th
2022 6th (Allar, Singleton, Carter, DDS, etc)

Next year the stars from the 6th ranked class will be gone and be replaced by the 16th ranked recruiting class of 2026. I don't like our chances of making the playoffs next year unless we do really well in the portal.

One exception is that I think NIL & direct pay have separated the strong from the weak teams. I remember NW and Purdue tying for the BiG title in 2000. Illinois won in 2001. Wisconsin had 3 titles and Michigan State had 2. Can that ever happen again? Can a Josh Allen ever stay at a place like Wyoming for 4 years?

Right now I can't imagine anybody other than OSU, Michigan, PSU, Oregon, or USC winning the BiG. Most other schools just don't have the money to compete. If you get a favorable schedule like Indiana had last year you might be able to go 10-2 and eek into the playoffs with 15th - 20th ranked talent.
 
I agree averaging #15 in recruiting every year will not cut it even if we develop talent better than most and have good use of the portal. I think we can hang around the OSUs, Georgias, Oregons etc with a class average around 10 most years but also need a strong class like 5-7 every 4 years.
 
bdroc said:
How do you define "good"?

Is a 15th ranked recruiting class "good"? I don't think so unless it's accompanied by a top 6 class every 4 or 5 years. I think 15th ranked classes can help form a base of talent but they need to be supplemented by some elite players.

2025 15th
2024 15th
2023 14th
2022 6th (Allar, Singleton, Carter, DDS, etc)

Next year the stars from the 6th ranked class will be gone and be replaced by the 16th ranked recruiting class of 2026. I don't like our chances of making the playoffs next year unless we do really well in the portal.

One exception is that I think NIL & direct pay have separated the strong from the weak teams. I remember NW and Purdue tying for the BiG title in 2000. Illinois won in 2001. Wisconsin had 3 titles and Michigan State had 2. Can that ever happen again? Can a Josh Allen ever stay at a place like Wyoming for 4 years?

Right now I can't imagine anybody other than OSU, Michigan, PSU, Oregon, or USC winning the BiG. Most other schools just don't have the money to compete. If you get a favorable schedule like Indiana had last year you might be able to go 10-2 and eek into the playoffs with 15th - 20th ranked talent.
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I think we are on a similar page here. This year is an important cross road. In order to have a strong recruiting class this year, we need the 2022 class to produce this year.
 
Sheriff Coffee said:
Those are the NFL pipeline teams. They are consistently getting more kids drafted. If you start for one of those teams, you’ll get an nfl shot.

At PSU we get a lot of good RBs, DEs and TEs because we put those kids in the nfl. 18 year olds see Saquon, Warren and Parsons and want to be then. We haven’t done well at WR, and QB to name two and therefore that is a tough recruit for us to get. we seem to be doing better at CB & S.

But we lack consistency across all 22 positions. And that has been our problem.
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Offensive Line is still important. We have an offensive line this year that will graduate four players who will get drafted. They need to start producing.
 
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