Interesting analysis I saw from a poster on 247. Seems to confirm that PSU outperforms our recruiting rankings very consistently.

Lazy Dave said:
OSU is 4th. You focused on the kids who didn't make it. It's 9 players different going up to Bama at #1. That isn't earth shattering.

Also, I wouldn't call it mismanagement that Burrow (wow, completely forgot about him) and Williams had succeeded elsewhere. It's not like OSU floundered at 9-3 with no draft picks in their absence. It just shows the amount of talent they had.

It's a matter of perspective.
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The amount of talent is the main point. They should be #1 or #2 in the NFL draft over the timeframe. Alabama's gap in this regard matches their gap with us. The difference is that Ohio St has the #1 recruiting over the timeframe (Alabama is close) and PSU has 15th recruiting. This is my point. Why do players get drafted out of Alabama at a higher rate than Ohio St with essentially the same incoming talent level? The answer is that Ohio St's player developing is lagging. Same or better talent in and fewer draft picks out. That is the math, and it is consistent over the last decade plus.
 
LudicrousSpeedGO! said:
If your position is that recruiting rankings do not matter you would be 100% wrong. They absolutely do matter and that has been shown repeatedly. 5 stars get to the league at a much higher rate than 4 stars. 4 stars do at a much higher rate than 3 stars, and so on. It isn't even a rational position that recruiting rankings are useless information. It is nonsensical. It is like denying reality. You are 100% wrong on the chances of getting drafted as I have shown with the data above. QED.
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I feel like the article is trying to take credit for our 0 to 60 time when tOSU is doing 75 The goal is to win games and tOSU is doing that better than we are…. Much
 
LudicrousSpeedGO! said:
False. Your chance of playing for a championship are higher but your chances of playing in the NFL are lower. Ohio St has turned 90 top 100 players (and more 5 stars and 4 stars than PSU) into 56 NFL draft picks. Penn State has turned only 28 top 100 players (and 3X fewer 5 stars and fewer 4 stars) into 46 NFL draft picks. Our success rate is not just higher; it is massively higher. Like, the top recruits are flaming out at Ohio St at an alarming rate while PSU is not just getting them drafted but also developing much lower rated guys to get drafted.
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56>46.
 
Sherriff Coffee said:
I feel like the article is trying to take credit for our 0 to 60 time when tOSU is doing 75 The goal is to win games and tOSU is doing that better than we are…. Much
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What article? We are discussing actual statistics that did not come from any article. They are present on 247 recruiting data and in the NFL draft records for anyone to analyze.

Those statistics clearly show Ohio St at minimum slightly under-performing in player development in getting top talent to the NFL draft and they clearly show PSU over-performing in player development in getting lesser talent to the NFL draft at a higher rate than we should. I've shown this repeatedly in the statistics. Your arguments have either ignore recruiting talent all together, talked about some article that hasn't been posted if it exists, and/or devolve into unrelated ideas like driving speeds. I can repost the stats if it helps. I generally like you as a poster but your talking points on this discussion have not been logical.
 
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LudicrousSpeedGO! said:
What article? We are discussing actual statistics that did not come from any article. They are present on 247 recruiting data and in the NFL draft records for anyone to analyze.

Those statistics clearly show Ohio St at minimum slightly under-performing in player development in getting top talent to the NFL draft and they clearly show PSU over-performing in player development in getting lesser talent to the NFL draft at a higher rate than we should. I've shown this repeatedly in the statistics. Your arguments have either ignore recruiting talent all together, talked about some article that hasn't been posted if it exists, and/or devolve into unrelated ideas like driving speeds. I can repost the stats if it helps. I generally like you as a poster but your talking points on this discussion have not been logical.
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Makes no sense to me. Winning is not underperforming. Having more people drafted is not underperforming. Having more players in the nfl is not underperforming.

You are making up statistics to justify losing. Hips don’t lie.
 
Sherriff Coffee said:
Makes no sense to me. Winning is not underperforming. Having more people drafted is not underperforming. Having more players in the nfl is not underperforming.

You are making up statistics to justify losing. Hips don’t lie.
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Now you think the statistics are made up? You can verify them yourself in like 10 minutes. I used duckduckgo.com ai assistant to tally up the number of NFL draft prospects by school since 2014. You can go back to the actual drafts and do that yourself if you don't trust the ai result to provide a correct tally. The number of top 100, 5 star and 4 star players for each team can be tallied up on 247's site in like 10 minutes if you want to do it yourself. Go ahead and check the numbers.

The truth is that you have come down to "making up statistics" as an excuse to totally ignore the actual results. The data that I posted are the results. You for some reason are unwilling to accept that reality. But those are the results. Ohio St turned over 3x more top 100 players, 3x more 5 stars, and significantly more 4 stars than PSU had to work with into a measly 1 more NFL draft pick on average per year. This is about the same gap that Ohio St is behind Alabama despite having the same or better recruiting than Alabama. Ohio St has underperformed. That is the reality over a decade plus of data. PSU has outperformed over that same timeframe. You have to be mathematically challenged or unwilling to accept reality to not see this in the data. It cannot be more obvious.

Again, I make no claims that we have passed them on the field. We haven't because they are #1 in recruiting over this period and we are #15. However, smart recruits that understand math and have seen a decade+ of data in the Franklin era know that PSU develops players better for the NFL draft. This is undeniable. The data strongly bears this fact out.
 
LudicrousSpeed ..

I think that your point that Franklin and his coaching staff(s) do a good job of developing "lower regarded" recruits for potential NFL careers relative to tOSU have been made. Congrats.

I also think that Sherriff Coffee has a very legitimate point that tOSU still wins (dominates) the head--to-head game results even though PSU develops players for the NFL draft at a better rate.

My question is why has PSU been beaten every year since 2016 when your statistics would imply/infer that this dominance should not exist. After all PSU's players have the innate ability and in fact have competed very well against the Buckeyes. They just don't win the games.

At the risk of opening a true can of worms, why don't you compare recruiting results / NFL draft results of some lesser college football programs. I suspect that both tOSU and PSU might not fare so well in potential NFL career development.
 
LudicrousSpeedGO! said:
The amount of talent is the main point. They should be #1 or #2 in the NFL draft over the timeframe. Alabama's gap in this regard matches their gap with us. The difference is that Ohio St has the #1 recruiting over the timeframe (Alabama is close) and PSU has 15th recruiting. This is my point. Why do players get drafted out of Alabama at a higher rate than Ohio St with essentially the same incoming talent level? The answer is that Ohio St's player developing is lagging. Same or better talent in and fewer draft picks out. That is the math, and it is consistent over the last decade plus.
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Probably because Bama won 5 titles and played for 2 more during this time frame. You don't get to triple your NFL draft picks simply because you recruit 3x as many top 100 players.

OSU's lag is in comparison to Bama, who had a historic great run under Saban. I don't think anybody disagrees that OSU has done less with more, but their "less" is still 2 titles in a decade and #4 in draft picks.

I'd like to have that "less" over the next 10 years.
 
MrDibbs said:
LudicrousSpeed ..

I think that your point that Franklin and his coaching staff(s) do a good job of developing "lower regarded" recruits for potential NFL careers relative to tOSU have been made. Congrats.

I also think that Sherriff Coffee has a very legitimate point that tOSU still wins (dominates) the head--to-head game results even though PSU develops players for the NFL draft at a better rate.

My question is why has PSU been beaten every year since 2016 when your statistics would imply/infer that this dominance should not exist. After all PSU's players have the innate ability and in fact have competed very well against the Buckeyes. They just don't win the games.

At the risk of opening a true can of worms, why don't you compare recruiting results / NFL draft results of some lesser college football programs. I suspect that both tOSU and PSU might not fare so well in potential NFL career development.
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1) You are correct in that PSU is much better in terms of player development and that the data bears this out well beyond statistically significance. Essentially, you have to deny reality to not come to this conclusion.

2) I have never disagreed that Ohio St doesn't win the head-to-head game results. This is a result of their #1 in the nation recruiting during Franklin's era and PSU at #15 in recruiting. In fact, I have stated that I am surprised that we play Ohio St so competitively nearly every year in spite of the large recruiting gap. That to me is shocking. They should be an average of a 2 TD win against us and most games come down to a play here or there.

3) I have not to this point compared results against lesser college football programs for multiple reasons:

a) The thread and discussion was a comparison of Ohio St to Penn St, not until your post did anyone wish to expand the discussion.
b) There are well over 100 universities at D1. Compiling that data would be very time consuming. Picking and choosing only a few would be cherry picking and not representative. I'll compile this data and rank order the results if you send me $250/hr for the work up front.
c) There are some lesser schools well known for putting guys into the league at a better than expected rate based on recruiting results. Wisconsin comes to mind. They would likely be above PSU but PSU would still fair extremely well. PSU is #15 in recruiting over the Franklin era and #10 in draft picks. We are clearly outperforming. Ohio St is #1 in recruiting and #4 in draft picks over the same timeframe. They are underperforming. I'm not compiling the recruiting rankings by school since 2014 (I'll estimate) but below I've used green to indicate the likely schools that are higher on the NFL draft pick list than they are on the recruiting rankings list for this period. I've used red to indicate the likely schools that are at least a few spots lower on the NFL draft pick list than their recruiting rankings over that timeframe.

Top 25 College Football Teams by NFL Draft Picks Since 2014​


1Alabama65
2LSU65
3USC62
4Ohio State56
5Florida55
6Georgia54
7Michigan50
8Oklahoma49
9Texas48
10Penn State47
11Miami (FL)46
12Notre Dame45
13Washington44
14Oregon43
15Auburn42
16Tennessee41
17Iowa40
18Wisconsin39
19South Carolina38
20Nebraska37
21Texas A&M36
22Utah35
23Michigan State34
24North Carolina33
25Arizona State32
 
LudicrousSpeedGO! said:
Now you think the statistics are made up? You can verify them yourself in like 10 minutes. I used duckduckgo.com ai assistant to tally up the number of NFL draft prospects by school since 2014. You can go back to the actual drafts and do that yourself if you don't trust the ai result to provide a correct tally. The number of top 100, 5 star and 4 star players for each team can be tallied up on 247's site in like 10 minutes if you want to do it yourself. Go ahead and check the numbers.

The truth is that you have come down to "making up statistics" as an excuse to totally ignore the actual results. The data that I posted are the results. You for some reason are unwilling to accept that reality. But those are the results. Ohio St turned over 3x more top 100 players, 3x more 5 stars, and significantly more 4 stars than PSU had to work with into a measly 1 more NFL draft pick on average per year. This is about the same gap that Ohio St is behind Alabama despite having the same or better recruiting than Alabama. Ohio St has underperformed. That is the reality over a decade plus of data. PSU has outperformed over that same timeframe. You have to be mathematically challenged or unwilling to accept reality to not see this in the data. It cannot be more obvious.

Again, I make no claims that we have passed them on the field. We haven't because they are #1 in recruiting over this period and we are #15. However, smart recruits that understand math and have seen a decade+ of data in the Franklin era know that PSU develops players better for the NFL draft. This is undeniable. The data strongly bears this fact out.
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Stats are for losers. It is a great recruiting pitch for low four and three star kids. You know, the ones Ohio State doesn’t have room for after getting all their five and high fours
 
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