Interesting analysis I saw from a poster on 247. Seems to confirm that PSU outperforms our recruiting rankings very consistently.

Lazy Dave said:
OSU is getting 16 to 20 4* or higher players per year (assumption, i didn't verify this). Only 22 can start at a given time. They can't put every kid in the league. It's an impossible task.

All 3 schools are in the top 10 of this I'm sure, but what is the top? At some point, it levels off even if you bring in 5x as many.
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Ohio St recruiting according to 247
1752342594887.png

So if you want to know why they won the national championship last year, just look at the 12 top 100 players and 6 5stars from their senior class last year supplement by 9 top 100 and 2 5star Jrs and some 5-star transfers not even shown in this plus the #1 overall freshman player that was too good to keep off the field. The good news is that their recruiting has declined slightly since that 2021 class.
 
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Lazy Dave said:
OSU is getting 16 to 20 4* or higher players per year (assumption, i didn't verify this). Only 22 can start at a given time. They can't put every kid in the league. It's an impossible task.

All 3 schools are in the top 10 of this I'm sure, but what is the top? At some point, it levels off even if you bring in 5x as many.
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Penn St recruiting according to 247:
1752342670974.png

And if we want to know why PSU has a legit shot at the title this year, just look at our 4 top 100 and 3 5stars that are part of that #6 rated class that are now seniors. The bad news is that our recruiting has not held up at that level.
 
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Now compare our recruiting to Ohio St. There is no way that we should even be competitive with them most years. And there is no way that we should be getting almost the exact same number of guys drafted into the league. The only way to explain it is that we either scout better and consistently find under-rated players, or we develop our players much, much better than they do. Maybe it is both. But with the recruiting differential, we should not be able to go toe to toe with them. If we ever end up on par with their recruiting, we are going to leave them in the dust.

What is interesting to me is that young recruits should be taking note. If they want to be drafted, we do it much, much better than Ohio St does. And the numbers that I posted don't even tell the entire story. Their 5 stars and their 4 stars average a much higher ranking than our much smaller number of 5 stars and 4 stars. Many of ours are borderline 5 and 4 stars while their on average are high 5 and 4 stars. That's too granular to get into here. But it is sufficient to show the numbers of top 100, 5 star, and 4 stars for comparison of results in both winning percentage and number of players selected in the draft.
 
LudicrousSpeedGO! said:
There is no way that we should even be competitive with them most years. And there is no way that we should be getting almost the exact same number of guys drafted into the league. The only way to explain it is that we either scout better and consistently find under-rated players, or we develop our players much, much better than they do. Maybe it is both
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We've lost every game since 2016. Most were close, but we still lost. So in that respect, we haven't been competitive at beating them.

The good news? Nobody has.

Again, you are failing to analyze the data. OSU gets to sift through better athletes than we do, but they still only start 22 of them.

I agree, we are scouting very well and developing very well. I just don't think you can knock OSU for it. The kids going there seem to know what they are in for. They don't have a lot of Jameson Williams examples to my memory, but I've not researched it.
 
LudicrousSpeedGO! said:
I disagree. For example, Ohio St has averaged 1 more NFL draft pick per year than PSU since 2014. Yet they have 29 5-star recruits over that timeframe to PSU's 11. They have 90 top 100 recruits over that timeframe to PSU's 28. They have 156 4-star recruits over that timeframe to PSU's 118. If they are an NFL pipeline, then PSU is an NFL superhighway!

It's conversion rate. The ratio of NFL picks to 5-stars for Ohio St is 56/29 = 1.93. For PSU this is 4.18 (which is over twice as good).
The ratio for NFL picks to top 100 recruits for Ohio St is 0.62. For PSU this ratio is 1.64 (which is nearly three times as good).

If top recruits were logical, did their homework, they would see that hands down PSU is the better path to the NFL than Ohio St. They have many more top recruits that flame out than PSU and never make the league. PSU has many more that maximize their potential and it isn't even close.
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Out isn’t overall picks. No way PSU competes with tOSU on first and second rounders. According to Grok, tOSU has 64 players in the nfl. PSU has 49.
 
Lazy Dave said:
We've lost every game since 2016. Most were close, but we still lost. So in that respect, we haven't been competitive at beating them.

The good news? Nobody has.

Again, you are failing to analyze the data. OSU gets to sift through better athletes than we do, but they still only start 22 of them.

I agree, we are scouting very well and developing very well. I just don't think you can knock OSU for it. The kids going there seem to know what they are in for. They don't have a lot of Jameson Williams examples to my memory, but I've not researched it.
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They are sorting through enough talent that it is necessary for a Jameson Williams to transfer to become an all-American over the very WRs that he could not beat out at Ohio St or a #1 overall NFL pick and Heisman winner having to transfer to get a shot to start. To me that is part of the point.

That doesn't happen at PSU. We don't have any guys riding the pine, transferring to the SEC and then becoming all-Americans or Heisman winners and 1st round draft picks. We don't have our pick of elite prospect after elite prospect that will make the NFL even if we totally botch their development. We actually have to develop our athletes to maximize their talent.

Doesn't matter that only 22 start. They aren't getting 22 NFL draft picks per year. They are averaging 5 per year. They average 3 more top 100 recruits per year than they do draft picks. PSU averages 1.5 more NFL draft picks per year than the number of top 100 recruits that we bring in per year. Read that again.

It's really, really hard to not realize with those numbers that Ohio St has been a poor choice for top 100 recruits that want to get drafted while PSU maximized the talent for the NFL draft at a much higher rate. Ohio St has a ton of elite recruits that simply wash out. PSU has quite a few average power 4 recruits that develop into draft picks. Over a decade of data can't be a fluke. They are under-developing and we are over- developing talent.
 
Sherriff Coffee said:
Out isn’t overall picks. No way PSU competes with tOSU on first and second rounders. According to Grok, tOSU has 64 players in the nfl. PSU has 49.
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Looking at only the total number of players currently in the NFL without considering the massive recruiting advantage they have is pretty lazy IMO. Should they have only slightly more guys in the NFL with over 3X as many top100 recruits and nearly 3X as many 5 stars? Should we just ignore that their flame out rate of elite recruits is massively higher than PSU?

We develop players for the NFL draft at a much higher rate than Ohio St. It's actually not even close. You cannot ignore the number of elite athletes that they are recruiting relative to PSU and all others not named Alabama and Georgia. That's simply not a smart way to look at it.
 
LudicrousSpeedGO! said:
Looking at only the total number of players currently in the NFL without considering the massive recruiting advantage they have is pretty lazy IMO. Should they have only slightly more guys in the NFL with over 3X as many top100 recruits and nearly 3X as many 5 stars? Should we just ignore that their flame out rate of elite recruits is massively higher than PSU?

We develop players for the NFL draft at a much higher rate than Ohio St. It's actually not even close. You cannot ignore the number of elite athletes that they are recruiting relative to PSU and all others not named Alabama and Georgia. That's simply not a smart way to look at it.
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BS. TOSU is head and shoulders above us and has been for over a decade, closer to two. That’s why we can’t beat them and they win three National championships since 2000. They’ve dominated the big ten winning 11 of the last 24.

They’ve had better players and great coaching.
 
I'd venture to guess that of OSU's draft picks more of them are 1st and 2nd round picks than PSU's. Just like Bama's. Without knowing I doubt UM had near the 1st and 2nd round picks over the last 10 years than OSU did. Even with the bumper draft they had after they cheated and won a MNC.

The pure number of draft picks is not as important to me as the number of top draft choices as those are the real difference makers that lead to winning vs top 10 teams. Each team has 22 starters and only on average lose around the same to graduation or early entry every year, so if PSU has 8 drafted and over half are 5th thru 7th round picks and OSU has 10 drafter but has double the number players drafted in the 1st thru 3rd rounds than PSU, even though the totals are not that far apart OSU ends up beating PSU by 2 TD's every year...........

So I believe the numbers analysis above doesn't tell the whole story.

And the 2026 class, with PSU losing almost every battle to the perenial top recruiting teams, will only keep the ball rolling for those teams and keep PSU trying to catch up. The stars have aligned for PSU this season getting top players to return for their 4th year combined with some key players developed and portaled (i.e. Harris and the WR's), but unless Franklin finds a way to get in the same recruiting game as OSU and Oregon, Bama, UGA, UT, Clemson, ...., Franklin will have a hard road to compete for a NC like JoePa did, every 4th or 5th season.

JMO
 
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Sherriff Coffee said:
BS. TOSU is head and shoulders above us and has been for over a decade, closer to two. That’s why we can’t beat them and they win three National championships since 2000. They’ve dominated the big ten winning 11 of the last 24.

They’ve had better players and great coaching.
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They have recruited better players. The data I posted show this. It is a massive talent gap. Their coaching and development is not on par with PSU and it isn't even close. That massive talent gap should not result in very close to the same number of draft picks. They are the gold standard of recruiting, but they are below average at developing that talent. PSU is a about 15th in recruiting but absolutely is crushing the development of lesser talented players to get almost the same number of draft picks.

Frankly, I'm not sure how anyone can review the recruiting data I posted and the number of draft picks without understanding that Ohio St is slightly under-developing the talent that they bring in (way too many top 100 talent flame outs) and PSU is producing more NFL draft picks that it should with much lesser talent. Perhaps if someone is mathematically challenged, I could see them not being able to come to that conclusion with the data I've posted.

For the record, Ohio St has been better than PSU but only because they recruit much, much better. There is no logical way to look at the data and not conclude that PSU is developing the players for the NFL at a much higher success rate relative to their recruiting rankings.
 
LudicrousSpeedGO! said:
They have recruited better players. The data I posted show this. It is a massive talent gap. Their coaching and development is not on par with PSU and it isn't even close. That massive talent gap should not result in very close to the same number of draft picks. They are the gold standard of recruiting, but they are below average at developing that talent. PSU is a about 15th in recruiting but absolutely is crushing the development of lesser talented players to get almost the same number of draft picks.

Frankly, I'm not sure how anyone can review the recruiting data I posted and the number of draft picks without understanding that Ohio St is slightly under-developing the talent that they bring in (way too many top 100 talent flame outs) and PSU is producing more NFL draft picks that it should with much lesser talent. Perhaps if someone is mathematically challenged, I could see them not being able to come to that conclusion with the data I've posted.

For the record, Ohio St has been better than PSU but only because they recruit much, much better. There is no logical way to look at the data and not conclude that PSU is developing the players for the NFL at a much higher success rate relative to their recruiting rankings.
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Well, you can say that relative to star rating versus nfl career but if PSU offers you versus tOSU your chances of playing for a championship and playing in the nfl are higher. That is why they get better players overall.
 
Sherriff Coffee said:
Well, you can say that relative to star rating versus nfl career but if PSU offers you versus tOSU your chances of playing for a championship and playing in the nfl are higher. That is why they get better players overall.
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False. Your chance of playing for a championship are higher but your chances of playing in the NFL are lower. Ohio St has turned 90 top 100 players (and more 5 stars and 4 stars than PSU) into 56 NFL draft picks. Penn State has turned only 28 top 100 players (and 3X fewer 5 stars and fewer 4 stars) into 46 NFL draft picks. Our success rate is not just higher; it is massively higher. Like, the top recruits are flaming out at Ohio St at an alarming rate while PSU is not just getting them drafted but also developing much lower rated guys to get drafted.
 
LudicrousSpeedGO! said:
Doesn't matter that only 22 start. They aren't getting 22 NFL draft picks per year. They are averaging 5 per year.
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Who is getting 22? Who is #1 in this regard?

We've lost Levis and McPherson and both were drafted. I'm sure OSU has lost others that have been drafted, but I don't know any others off the top.

I agree about PSU.

I disagree about OSU. Unless you have #s of the teams getting more into the NFL with similar recruiting. I just don't think anybody is getting the ratio that you think OSU should. That's all.
 
Lazy Dave said:
Who is getting 22? Who is #1 in this regard?

We've lost Levis and McPherson and both were drafted. I'm sure OSU has lost others that have been drafted, but I don't know any others off the top.

I agree about PSU.

I disagree about OSU. Unless you have #s of the teams getting more into the NFL with similar recruiting. I just don't think anybody is getting the ratio that you think OSU should. That's all.
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The very first post of the thread has this data. I like a lot of your takes, but I think that you are definitely not accounting for the massive recruiting gap that Ohio St has over PSU. I've shown it repeatedly in the numbers. They have over 3X as many top 100 recruits. That should translate to more NFL draft picks. Alabama does it with nearly identical recruiting. LSU, USC, and Florida do it with top 5 to 10 recruiting. Ohio St should be even with Alabama. They aren't. They have 16% more flame outs of top recruits than Bama despite having nearly identical recruiting. Ohio St and Alabama are the recruiting kings, but Alabama, LSU and USC are the NFL draft pick kings. Ohio St is 2nd tier in NFL draft picks with the absolute gold standard in recruiting. They are simply a notch below at player development.

Alabama had nearly identical recruiting to Ohio St. All others above and near them had lesser recruiting (albeit still better recruiting than PSU). Ohio St has definitely failed more top 100 recruits than most.

1Alabama65
2LSU65
3USC62
4Ohio State56
5Florida55


Also, no one is confusing Levis and McPherson for Burrows and Williamson. Burrows was the #1 overall pick and Heisman winner sitting the bench at Ohio St and Williamson was a 1st team all-American selection over the very WRs at Ohio St that he couldn't beat out. Those are pretty damning mismanagements of talent.
 
LudicrousSpeedGO! said:
False. Your chance of playing for a championship are higher but your chances of playing in the NFL are lower. Ohio St has turned 90 top 100 players (and more 5 stars and 4 stars than PSU) into 56 NFL draft picks. Penn State has turned only 28 top 100 players (and 3X fewer 5 stars and fewer 4 stars) into 46 NFL draft picks. Our success rate is not just higher; it is massively higher. Like, the top recruits are flaming out at Ohio St at an alarming rate while PSU is not just getting them drafted but also developing much lower rated guys to get drafted.
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You are considering their star value which is useless information. If you get an offer from Ohio State and Penn State, your chances of playing for a natty &/or the nfl are better with Ohio State. That is why they’ve out recruited us for 20 years.
 
Sherriff Coffee said:
You are considering their star value which is useless information. If you get an offer from Ohio State and Penn State, your chances of playing for a natty &/or the nfl are better with Ohio State. That is why they’ve out recruited us for 20 years.
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If your position is that recruiting rankings do not matter you would be 100% wrong. They absolutely do matter and that has been shown repeatedly. 5 stars get to the league at a much higher rate than 4 stars. 4 stars do at a much higher rate than 3 stars, and so on. It isn't even a rational position that recruiting rankings are useless information. It is nonsensical. It is like denying reality. You are 100% wrong on the chances of getting drafted as I have shown with the data above. QED.
 
LudicrousSpeedGO! said:
The very first post of the thread has this data
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OSU is 4th. You focused on the kids who didn't make it. It's 9 players different going up to Bama at #1. That isn't earth shattering.

Also, I wouldn't call it mismanagement that Burrow (wow, completely forgot about him) and Williams had succeeded elsewhere. It's not like OSU floundered at 9-3 with no draft picks in their absence. It just shows the amount of talent they had.

It's a matter of perspective.
 
bdroc said:
I remember a lot of posts talking about how Franklin was a great recruiter but a poor gameday coach. Now the narrative has flipped.
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IDK. Franklin has always risen and fallen based on his coordinators and his decision making, in game, is still suspect. "The Analytics said..." to explain every bone head decision.:rolleyes:
 
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