Off Season Artilces Thread





 

Oregon guys preview us. Interesting breakdown. They do film review and deep dive some stats. You can tell on some fronts they don't have any sources to gather from (Safety, for example, they don't have any expectations of Lane nor Toure when Lane seems primed to start by most of us here), but they at least have an outside perspective and go by what is available.
 

Oregon guys preview us. Interesting breakdown. They do film review and deep dive some stats. You can tell on some fronts they don't have any sources to gather from (Safety, for example, they don't have any expectations of Lane nor Toure when Lane seems primed to start by most of us here), but they at least have an outside perspective and go by what is available.
They aren’t fans of our WR coach!
 

Oregon guys preview us. Interesting breakdown. They do film review and deep dive some stats. You can tell on some fronts they don't have any sources to gather from (Safety, for example, they don't have any expectations of Lane nor Toure when Lane seems primed to start by most of us here), but they at least have an outside perspective and go by what is available.
That's a great analysis. Three things stuck out to me:

1) "Coach Franklin’s preference for a grind-it-out slow pace of play is at odds with optimal game theory since he enjoys a talent and efficiency advantage against nearly every opponent".

I notice this at the end of the half or game. Allar seems much more decisive when we're in a hurry up offense (the last throw vs ND excluded).

2) "So in 2024, the cumulative 2nd and 3rd down rush defense success rate on anything with 6 yards to go or fewer collapsed to just 29.8%, the lowest it’s been for PSU in five years by at least ten points. And the 3rd & short vs 3rd & long pass defense differential, already a weak spot for PSU, became its worst as well, a 45-point gap (35.7% vs 80.7%), indicating a defense that was entirely dependent on the pass rush getting home and a secondary powerless to cover more than about two seconds."

I've always blamed our poor 3rd down defense on strategy. I seems to me that we do a lot of blitzing hoping for explosive plays (sack, fumble, INT) on defense. We seldom play more conservatively where we're willing to give up 3-4 yds and force a punt.

3) #58 DT Artis from the 2022 cycle and #39 DT Blanding from 2023, only came in for a couple of reps deep into mop-up time on Penn State’s blowout wins against totally overmatched teams like Kent State, Purdue, and Washington - notably, they didn’t fill in during the postseason when Ford and Beamon were no longer available to complete the standard four-man rotation, which Andrew and I agreed would seem to indicate the staff doesn’t have much confidence in them going forward.

I have to wonder if a 2 LB defense is smart when you're weak at DT. It seems like a safer bet to play Rojas & Deluca on the outside with Campbell in the middle. Also, it's not like we have a lot of proven depth at safety to feel confident about playing 5 DBs.
 
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I notice this at the end of the half or game. Allar seems much more decisive when we're in a hurry up offense (the last throw vs ND excluded)

I agree. I don't hold every bad throw against him, but it's like we aren't aggressive very often and then when we have to be we expect him to turn it on like a switch.

I've always blamed our poor 3rd down defense on strategy. I seems to me that we do a lot of blitzing hoping for explosive plays (sack, fumble, INT) on defense. We seldom play more conservatively where we're willing to give up 3-4 yds and force a punt.

Live by the blitz, die by the blitz. At times, it seems like a very underdog-ish mentality. Some of the time, I agree let's just sit back and let them throw it straight into a tackle and force a 4th and 3 decision.

I have to wonder if a 2 LB defense is smart when you're weak at DT. It seems like a safer bet to play Rojas & Deluca on the outside with Campbell in the middle. Also, it's not like we have a lot of proven depth at safety to feel confident about playing 5 DBs.

I'm not certain that we are weak at DT near as much as we have unproven depth. Durant returning is huge. You can build around him. Ford's return is as well, but health is a concern.

I think the 4-2-5 is Knowles base defense regardless. The # of power running teams just doesn't exist to exactly worry about it when you can move your guys up and around.

Like the article said about OSU vs Oregon 1, Knowles simulated pressure and got fancy while Oregon just continued to deliver the ball fast. (Sounds familiar) In the rematch, they just let the DL rush downhill and left the back 7 to clean up. Once they had Oregon in 3rd and long as well as a 2 and 3 TD lead, then they went to the exotic blitzes and they work when you have 4 seconds to get there.
 
I agree. I don't hold every bad throw against him, but it's like we aren't aggressive very often and then when we have to be we expect him to turn it on like a switch.



Live by the blitz, die by the blitz. At times, it seems like a very underdog-ish mentality. Some of the time, I agree let's just sit back and let them throw it straight into a tackle and force a 4th and 3 decision.



I'm not certain that we are weak at DT near as much as we have unproven depth. Durant returning is huge. You can build around him. Ford's return is as well, but health is a concern.

I think the 4-2-5 is Knowles base defense regardless. The # of power running teams just doesn't exist to exactly worry about it when you can move your guys up and around.

Like the article said about OSU vs Oregon 1, Knowles simulated pressure and got fancy while Oregon just continued to deliver the ball fast. (Sounds familiar) In the rematch, they just let the DL rush downhill and left the back 7 to clean up. Once they had Oregon in 3rd and long as well as a 2 and 3 TD lead, then they went to the exotic blitzes and they work when you have 4 seconds to get there.
I remember a game vs Michigan in 2019. PSU led 21-7 at half as Shea Patterson couldn't handle PSU pressure/blitz. Michigan made adjustments at halftime and went to a shorter quick release pass game. PSU kept bringing the heat but couldn't get to Patterson with the quick release. Michigan's offense had much more success in the second half and made it a 7 pt game and almost scored to tie the game but turned it over on downs at the PSU 3.

My point is PSU brought the pressure no matter what. It worked in the first half until Michigan made adjustments. PSU didn't adjust to the quick release passes and almost blew the game. That approach has been in PSU's DNA for the last several years.
 
That's a great analysis. Three things stuck out to me:

1) "Coach Franklin’s preference for a grind-it-out slow pace of play is at odds with optimal game theory since he enjoys a talent and efficiency advantage against nearly every opponent".

I notice this at the end of the half or game. Allar seems much more decisive when we're in a hurry up offense (the last throw vs ND excluded).

2) "So in 2024, the cumulative 2nd and 3rd down rush defense success rate on anything with 6 yards to go or fewer collapsed to just 29.8%, the lowest it’s been for PSU in five years by at least ten points. And the 3rd & short vs 3rd & long pass defense differential, already a weak spot for PSU, became its worst as well, a 45-point gap (35.7% vs 80.7%), indicating a defense that was entirely dependent on the pass rush getting home and a secondary powerless to cover more than about two seconds."

I've always blamed our poor 3rd down defense on strategy. I seems to me that we do a lot of blitzing hoping for explosive plays (sack, fumble, INT) on defense. We seldom play more conservatively where we're willing to give up 3-4 yds and force a punt.

3) #58 DT Artis from the 2022 cycle and #39 DT Blanding from 2023, only came in for a couple of reps deep into mop-up time on Penn State’s blowout wins against totally overmatched teams like Kent State, Purdue, and Washington - notably, they didn’t fill in during the postseason when Ford and Beamon were no longer available to complete the standard four-man rotation, which Andrew and I agreed would seem to indicate the staff doesn’t have much confidence in them going forward.

I have to wonder if a 2 LB defense is smart when you're weak at DT. It seems like a safer bet to play Rojas & Deluca on the outside with Campbell in the middle. Also, it's not like we have a lot of proven depth at safety to feel confident about playing 5 DBs.
I agree about PSU's 3rd down strategy - always head stratcher to me.
I'm with them on Artis & Blanding. They haven't stepped up. Lack of talent or development issue?

PSU has to see what the DT youngsters Gilliam, Wafle, Andrews, and Cook can do right away in the OOC.
I too would like to see a 3-man LBer scheme used more often than Knowles seems to use. I think they were a little too dismissive of Wiley (oft injured) and Speca. I think Speca is a player.

Also seemed dismissive of PSU's secondary talent. Wheatley is proven, Lane looked good in his limited play, Mack can be a credible player to slide between Safety & nickel.
Harris, Washington, Tracy, and I believe it was a Freshman named Davis (?) from California that was flashing. Of course the secondaries success is dependent on the DLs ability to pressure the QB.

Overall, thorough in-depth review, though a bit more negatively slanted based on their emphasis toward initial star rating from HS.
 
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I agree about PSU's 3rd down strategy - always head stratcher to me.
I'm with them on Artis & Blanding. They haven't stepped up. Lack of talent or development issue?

PSU has to see what the DT youngsters Gilliam, Wale, Andrews, and Cook can do right away in the OOC.
I too would like to see a 3-man LBer scheme used more often than Knowles seems to use. I think they were a little too dismissive of Wiley (oft injured) and Speca. I think Speca is a player.

Also seemed dismissive of PSU's secondary talent. Wheatley is proven, Lane looked good in his limited play, Mack can be a credible player to slide between Safety & nickel.
Harris, Washington, Tracy, and I believe it was a Freshman named Davis (?) from California that was flashing. Of course the secondaries success is dependent on the DLs ability to pressure the QB.

Overall, thorough in-depth review, though a bit more negatively slanted based on their emphasis toward initial star rating from HS.

I think they got tired of doing the analysis by the time they reached the secondary. Or perhaps the parts were split between people. The offense was a very cohesive write up, but we return a lot of players and these pieces seem statistically and analytically driven.

The defense they really chalked up to "they return 2 guys per unit and have no proven depth". To be fair, their sentiment is really close to a lot of our posters. They just arrived at it in a different manner. We have a very good to elite level defender at essentially every position (Durant, DDS, Rojas, Harris, and Wheatley) so I guess pissing on star ratings and proven depth is the best route for attacking this team on paper?
 
I agree about PSU's 3rd down strategy - always head stratcher to me.
I'm with them on Artis & Blanding. They haven't stepped up. Lack of talent or development issue?

PSU has to see what the DT youngsters Gilliam, Wale, Andrews, and Cook can do right away in the OOC.
I too would like to see a 3-man LBer scheme used more often than Knowles seems to use. I think they were a little too dismissive of Wiley (oft injured) and Speca. I think Speca is a player.

Also seemed dismissive of PSU's secondary talent. Wheatley is proven, Lane looked good in his limited play, Mack can be a credible player to slide between Safety & nickel.
Harris, Washington, Tracy, and I believe it was a Freshman named Davis (?) from California that was flashing. Of course the secondaries success is dependent on the DLs ability to pressure the QB.

Overall, thorough in-depth review, though a bit more negatively slanted based on their emphasis toward initial star rating from HS.
I don't necessarily disagree. It's just that you're counting on a lot of unknowns.

DTs usually need time to physically develop unless they're 5* freaks like Rashan Gary. We don't have anybody like that. Gilliam and Wafle were 3* recruits. Andrews was higher rated but he's young and inexperienced. PSU really needs Ford to be healthy and to stay healthy.

Wylie and Speca were both 3* recruits. The doesn't mean they can't provide backup to Rojas, Deluca, and Campbell.

Harris & Washington should be strong in the secondary. I agree that Lane and Tracy looked serviceable. But remember we're looking for 5 of them to start then two more for depth.
 

Oregon guys preview us. Interesting breakdown. They do film review and deep dive some stats. You can tell on some fronts they don't have any sources to gather from (Safety, for example, they don't have any expectations of Lane nor Toure when Lane seems primed to start by most of us here), but they at least have an outside perspective and go by what is available.
Wow, the author of that must have turned that in for his PHD thesis!!

On Offense
- Great point about the fact that PSU's 3 portal WR's mostly all played on the inside. But his comment on Clifford being the WR that plays outside to compliment them seems off base to me. Clifford doesn't get deep unless a play breaks down and extends and he seems more limited to the inside than the 3 transfer WR's. Wonder if that might get a surprise WR into the lineup more than what we seem to expect. Denmark or Gonzalez or ??? Hopefully Howard has the talent to play outside.
- Don't know where he got his belief that Birchmeier is the "new Cousins". Williams was somewhat moved to the inside, although he played some at OT this Spring due to injuries. If Williams stays inside he's likely the top inside backup. It wouldn't surprise me to see Onoh or Shanahan ahead of Birchmeier either. But having those 4 as backups seems like a great problem to have.

On Defense:
-Interesting review of how he sees the strengths and weaknesses of the 3 DC's and what he believes might have been behind Knowles leaving oh-high-ya and coming to PSU.
-He and his informant some how missed the fact that Gilliam has played and practiced himself into the rotation ahead of the other open competition for the DT rotation behind Durant and Ford. So for his goal of a 2 deep Barnes is really only looking for the 4th. But Franklin will want a competent 5th and hopefully 6th such that an injury and/or defection like Beamon's last season doesn't bring the DT rotation down to mainly 3 players like it seemed to do down the stretch last season.
- Who ever Andrew is must not have listened to Franklin on where DE shaked out after Spring practices, as Harvey seems to have stepped up and I believe was identified as likely in the rotation for 2025 and Kemajou has also been given enough praise to make me believe he's not redshirting. Where as "Andrew" gave this guy info that none of the true freshmen DE's are expected to contribute.
- Robinson was the most athletically gifted? Rojas has shown he's the best athlete among the returning LB's. He states that a 2nd time in discussing how PSU might replace all of the tackles King made. I believe Rojas is not only more athletic than Robinson, but bigger as well. PSU will miss Robinson as a LB in the rotation, but maybe Campbell will make us forget that to a good degree as Robinson wasn't a proven B10 LB either. PSU needs Campbell to step up at Mike regardless of if he starts or subs in within situationally with Rojas, DeLuka or whoever. Nelson does seem like the wild card at LB as the current PSU roster lists him at 6'3", 234 lbs making him one of the bigger LB's on the roster, coming from a move from Safety.
- When I got to his analysis of Safety, criticizing Reed and Wheatley pretty harshly, that put some of his other comments more in perspective and made me question his "charting" statistics/conclusions. Obviously Reed played pretty well and was highly praised by Franklin after a couple of the bigger wins last season. And Wheatley is likely to continue as PSU's turnover king unless teams try and test Harris too often. He was "astonished" the Texans drafted Reed, but it's more likely the Texans know what they got in Reed than this guy.
- He misses that Lane didn't redshirt, was a key backup the whole 2024 season and is definitely in the battle to start opposite Wheatley.
- At CB he glosses over the four true freshmen even though anyone that follow the team and this past Spring practice should know that Dixon has an excellent chance to play (not redshirt) this coming season and have some kind of role.

Overall I guess about as thorough as an opposing team's fan could assemble, but with some misses that had info out there after the Spring.

And he puts too much emphasis on each players high school rating, especially for non true freshman players. As Franklin has said every player starts their first practice as zero stars. But when someone's trying to do a prediction on a team they seem to not know much about that's what they may revert to.
 
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