Off Season Artilces Thread

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Penn State Football 2025 Preview: Nittany Lions Stacked Again at Tight End

Penn State turned tight end Tyler Warren into a star in 2024. Who could follow him this season?
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www.blackshoediaries.com

Ranking Penn State’s Defensive Units for 2025

What will be the strength of the Nittany Lions defense in 2025?
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nittanysportsnow.com

Where PFF Ranks The Penn State Defense

PFF College ranks Penn State's 2025 defense No. 5 nationally, led by new DC Jim Knowles. Discover how Zane Durant, Dani Dennis-Sutton, and a talented secondary will dominate the competition.
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www.addictedtoquack.com

Duck Dive: Penn State Football 2025 Preview

Going deep with the Nittany Lions’ scheme, returning personnel, and unknowns
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Oregon guys preview us. Interesting breakdown. They do film review and deep dive some stats. You can tell on some fronts they don't have any sources to gather from (Safety, for example, they don't have any expectations of Lane nor Toure when Lane seems primed to start by most of us here), but they at least have an outside perspective and go by what is available.
 
Lazy Dave said:
www.addictedtoquack.com

Duck Dive: Penn State Football 2025 Preview

Going deep with the Nittany Lions’ scheme, returning personnel, and unknowns
www.addictedtoquack.com www.addictedtoquack.com

Oregon guys preview us. Interesting breakdown. They do film review and deep dive some stats. You can tell on some fronts they don't have any sources to gather from (Safety, for example, they don't have any expectations of Lane nor Toure when Lane seems primed to start by most of us here), but they at least have an outside perspective and go by what is available.
Click to expand...
They aren’t fans of our WR coach!
 
Lazy Dave said:
www.addictedtoquack.com

Duck Dive: Penn State Football 2025 Preview

Going deep with the Nittany Lions’ scheme, returning personnel, and unknowns
www.addictedtoquack.com www.addictedtoquack.com

Oregon guys preview us. Interesting breakdown. They do film review and deep dive some stats. You can tell on some fronts they don't have any sources to gather from (Safety, for example, they don't have any expectations of Lane nor Toure when Lane seems primed to start by most of us here), but they at least have an outside perspective and go by what is available.
Click to expand...
That's a great analysis. Three things stuck out to me:

1) "Coach Franklin’s preference for a grind-it-out slow pace of play is at odds with optimal game theory since he enjoys a talent and efficiency advantage against nearly every opponent".

I notice this at the end of the half or game. Allar seems much more decisive when we're in a hurry up offense (the last throw vs ND excluded).

2) "So in 2024, the cumulative 2nd and 3rd down rush defense success rate on anything with 6 yards to go or fewer collapsed to just 29.8%, the lowest it’s been for PSU in five years by at least ten points. And the 3rd & short vs 3rd & long pass defense differential, already a weak spot for PSU, became its worst as well, a 45-point gap (35.7% vs 80.7%), indicating a defense that was entirely dependent on the pass rush getting home and a secondary powerless to cover more than about two seconds."

I've always blamed our poor 3rd down defense on strategy. I seems to me that we do a lot of blitzing hoping for explosive plays (sack, fumble, INT) on defense. We seldom play more conservatively where we're willing to give up 3-4 yds and force a punt.

3) #58 DT Artis from the 2022 cycle and #39 DT Blanding from 2023, only came in for a couple of reps deep into mop-up time on Penn State’s blowout wins against totally overmatched teams like Kent State, Purdue, and Washington - notably, they didn’t fill in during the postseason when Ford and Beamon were no longer available to complete the standard four-man rotation, which Andrew and I agreed would seem to indicate the staff doesn’t have much confidence in them going forward.

I have to wonder if a 2 LB defense is smart when you're weak at DT. It seems like a safer bet to play Rojas & Deluca on the outside with Campbell in the middle. Also, it's not like we have a lot of proven depth at safety to feel confident about playing 5 DBs.
 
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bdroc said:
I notice this at the end of the half or game. Allar seems much more decisive when we're in a hurry up offense (the last throw vs ND excluded)
Click to expand...

I agree. I don't hold every bad throw against him, but it's like we aren't aggressive very often and then when we have to be we expect him to turn it on like a switch.

bdroc said:
I've always blamed our poor 3rd down defense on strategy. I seems to me that we do a lot of blitzing hoping for explosive plays (sack, fumble, INT) on defense. We seldom play more conservatively where we're willing to give up 3-4 yds and force a punt.
Click to expand...

Live by the blitz, die by the blitz. At times, it seems like a very underdog-ish mentality. Some of the time, I agree let's just sit back and let them throw it straight into a tackle and force a 4th and 3 decision.

bdroc said:
I have to wonder if a 2 LB defense is smart when you're weak at DT. It seems like a safer bet to play Rojas & Deluca on the outside with Campbell in the middle. Also, it's not like we have a lot of proven depth at safety to feel confident about playing 5 DBs.
Click to expand...

I'm not certain that we are weak at DT near as much as we have unproven depth. Durant returning is huge. You can build around him. Ford's return is as well, but health is a concern.

I think the 4-2-5 is Knowles base defense regardless. The # of power running teams just doesn't exist to exactly worry about it when you can move your guys up and around.

Like the article said about OSU vs Oregon 1, Knowles simulated pressure and got fancy while Oregon just continued to deliver the ball fast. (Sounds familiar) In the rematch, they just let the DL rush downhill and left the back 7 to clean up. Once they had Oregon in 3rd and long as well as a 2 and 3 TD lead, then they went to the exotic blitzes and they work when you have 4 seconds to get there.
 
Lazy Dave said:
I agree. I don't hold every bad throw against him, but it's like we aren't aggressive very often and then when we have to be we expect him to turn it on like a switch.



Live by the blitz, die by the blitz. At times, it seems like a very underdog-ish mentality. Some of the time, I agree let's just sit back and let them throw it straight into a tackle and force a 4th and 3 decision.



I'm not certain that we are weak at DT near as much as we have unproven depth. Durant returning is huge. You can build around him. Ford's return is as well, but health is a concern.

I think the 4-2-5 is Knowles base defense regardless. The # of power running teams just doesn't exist to exactly worry about it when you can move your guys up and around.

Like the article said about OSU vs Oregon 1, Knowles simulated pressure and got fancy while Oregon just continued to deliver the ball fast. (Sounds familiar) In the rematch, they just let the DL rush downhill and left the back 7 to clean up. Once they had Oregon in 3rd and long as well as a 2 and 3 TD lead, then they went to the exotic blitzes and they work when you have 4 seconds to get there.
Click to expand...
I remember a game vs Michigan in 2019. PSU led 21-7 at half as Shea Patterson couldn't handle PSU pressure/blitz. Michigan made adjustments at halftime and went to a shorter quick release pass game. PSU kept bringing the heat but couldn't get to Patterson with the quick release. Michigan's offense had much more success in the second half and made it a 7 pt game and almost scored to tie the game but turned it over on downs at the PSU 3.

My point is PSU brought the pressure no matter what. It worked in the first half until Michigan made adjustments. PSU didn't adjust to the quick release passes and almost blew the game. That approach has been in PSU's DNA for the last several years.
 
bdroc said:
That's a great analysis. Three things stuck out to me:

1) "Coach Franklin’s preference for a grind-it-out slow pace of play is at odds with optimal game theory since he enjoys a talent and efficiency advantage against nearly every opponent".

I notice this at the end of the half or game. Allar seems much more decisive when we're in a hurry up offense (the last throw vs ND excluded).

2) "So in 2024, the cumulative 2nd and 3rd down rush defense success rate on anything with 6 yards to go or fewer collapsed to just 29.8%, the lowest it’s been for PSU in five years by at least ten points. And the 3rd & short vs 3rd & long pass defense differential, already a weak spot for PSU, became its worst as well, a 45-point gap (35.7% vs 80.7%), indicating a defense that was entirely dependent on the pass rush getting home and a secondary powerless to cover more than about two seconds."

I've always blamed our poor 3rd down defense on strategy. I seems to me that we do a lot of blitzing hoping for explosive plays (sack, fumble, INT) on defense. We seldom play more conservatively where we're willing to give up 3-4 yds and force a punt.

3) #58 DT Artis from the 2022 cycle and #39 DT Blanding from 2023, only came in for a couple of reps deep into mop-up time on Penn State’s blowout wins against totally overmatched teams like Kent State, Purdue, and Washington - notably, they didn’t fill in during the postseason when Ford and Beamon were no longer available to complete the standard four-man rotation, which Andrew and I agreed would seem to indicate the staff doesn’t have much confidence in them going forward.

I have to wonder if a 2 LB defense is smart when you're weak at DT. It seems like a safer bet to play Rojas & Deluca on the outside with Campbell in the middle. Also, it's not like we have a lot of proven depth at safety to feel confident about playing 5 DBs.
Click to expand...
I agree about PSU's 3rd down strategy - always head stratcher to me.
I'm with them on Artis & Blanding. They haven't stepped up. Lack of talent or development issue?

PSU has to see what the DT youngsters Gilliam, Wafle, Andrews, and Cook can do right away in the OOC.
I too would like to see a 3-man LBer scheme used more often than Knowles seems to use. I think they were a little too dismissive of Wiley (oft injured) and Speca. I think Speca is a player.

Also seemed dismissive of PSU's secondary talent. Wheatley is proven, Lane looked good in his limited play, Mack can be a credible player to slide between Safety & nickel.
Harris, Washington, Tracy, and I believe it was a Freshman named Davis (?) from California that was flashing. Of course the secondaries success is dependent on the DLs ability to pressure the QB.

Overall, thorough in-depth review, though a bit more negatively slanted based on their emphasis toward initial star rating from HS.
 
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RickinDayton said:
I agree about PSU's 3rd down strategy - always head stratcher to me.
I'm with them on Artis & Blanding. They haven't stepped up. Lack of talent or development issue?

PSU has to see what the DT youngsters Gilliam, Wale, Andrews, and Cook can do right away in the OOC.
I too would like to see a 3-man LBer scheme used more often than Knowles seems to use. I think they were a little too dismissive of Wiley (oft injured) and Speca. I think Speca is a player.

Also seemed dismissive of PSU's secondary talent. Wheatley is proven, Lane looked good in his limited play, Mack can be a credible player to slide between Safety & nickel.
Harris, Washington, Tracy, and I believe it was a Freshman named Davis (?) from California that was flashing. Of course the secondaries success is dependent on the DLs ability to pressure the QB.

Overall, thorough in-depth review, though a bit more negatively slanted based on their emphasis toward initial star rating from HS.
Click to expand...

I think they got tired of doing the analysis by the time they reached the secondary. Or perhaps the parts were split between people. The offense was a very cohesive write up, but we return a lot of players and these pieces seem statistically and analytically driven.

The defense they really chalked up to "they return 2 guys per unit and have no proven depth". To be fair, their sentiment is really close to a lot of our posters. They just arrived at it in a different manner. We have a very good to elite level defender at essentially every position (Durant, DDS, Rojas, Harris, and Wheatley) so I guess pissing on star ratings and proven depth is the best route for attacking this team on paper?
 
RickinDayton said:
I agree about PSU's 3rd down strategy - always head stratcher to me.
I'm with them on Artis & Blanding. They haven't stepped up. Lack of talent or development issue?

PSU has to see what the DT youngsters Gilliam, Wale, Andrews, and Cook can do right away in the OOC.
I too would like to see a 3-man LBer scheme used more often than Knowles seems to use. I think they were a little too dismissive of Wiley (oft injured) and Speca. I think Speca is a player.

Also seemed dismissive of PSU's secondary talent. Wheatley is proven, Lane looked good in his limited play, Mack can be a credible player to slide between Safety & nickel.
Harris, Washington, Tracy, and I believe it was a Freshman named Davis (?) from California that was flashing. Of course the secondaries success is dependent on the DLs ability to pressure the QB.

Overall, thorough in-depth review, though a bit more negatively slanted based on their emphasis toward initial star rating from HS.
Click to expand...
I don't necessarily disagree. It's just that you're counting on a lot of unknowns.

DTs usually need time to physically develop unless they're 5* freaks like Rashan Gary. We don't have anybody like that. Gilliam and Wafle were 3* recruits. Andrews was higher rated but he's young and inexperienced. PSU really needs Ford to be healthy and to stay healthy.

Wylie and Speca were both 3* recruits. The doesn't mean they can't provide backup to Rojas, Deluca, and Campbell.

Harris & Washington should be strong in the secondary. I agree that Lane and Tracy looked serviceable. But remember we're looking for 5 of them to start then two more for depth.
 
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